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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
IMHO, I don’t think Plaid will osbourne S&X as it will be sold at a significant premium. Think P85D v S75.

Fire Away!

Plus, there are a lot of people who really don't care about owning that level of performance. I take people for rides in our 2016 S90D and they are all still blown away. I still use the performance when appropriate, but seldom, or never, need to put the pedal to the metal. I may at some point decide to buy another to move up to HW3, but even then a S100D will have more performance than I will ever "need". When does one get to use the performance in a "plaid" in normal daily driving. Most of buyers are not interested in going to the track.
 
Apr 14, 2013
839
4,160
Fort Pierce, FL
It's limited by the 18650 cell output from Japan and Tesla has no intention to ask Panasonic to expand production.

one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!
 

bhtooefr

Active Member
Apr 16, 2018
1,156
6,543
Newark, OH, USA
one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

IIRC they're tweaked for that level when there's a mix of 75 kWh and 100 kWh packs. 75 kWh no longer exists.

I forget what the mix actually was, but if it was 50/50, that means there's enough cells for about 87.6k S+X with all 100 kWh packs.
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,314
19,421
London
one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!
Only when there was a split of large and small batteries.
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,367
-
Agreed. Everything is shaping up for a monster Q4. So long as there's not a terrible outlook for Q1 - with given how they already had to start shifting some new orders to Q1, certainly doesn't look to be the case - there should be another huge surge.

I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.
  • Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
  • The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
  • Tesla is also prioritising AWD production over SR+ for Europe which should encourage trade ups and better ASP in Q4.
  • The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
  • Some prices were increased in Q4.
  • Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
  • Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
  • Likely continued work on production cost savings.
On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).
 
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UncaNed

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2015
1,487
5,451
East coast
If electric cars were ten times better than ICE cars then the transition would be complete in ten years ... but they aren't. How many new Tesla buyers crush their old cars? Zero. The car you sold to buy your new Tesla will very likely still be burning fuel ten years from now. Do you think Greta will want to take a sailboat from NY to Shanghai or fly on a carbon powered rocket?
Many will languish unused as "backup" vehicles till the dinosaur-juice turns to steenking-sticky varnishy gas-gunk. Then off to the recycling place to be smashed with a 900 lb 3-fingered grabber-upper and dropped on the pile-o-smashed car junk.
 
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UncaNed

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2015
1,487
5,451
East coast
I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.
  • Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
  • The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
  • The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
  • Some prices were increased in Q4.
  • Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
  • Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
  • Likely continued work on production cost savings.
On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).
All the FSD and rail posts are important I'm sure but why is TSLA up $8+ today? I see lots of negative FUD.
You're welcome, @madodel. Just parroting Elon about an overlooked Tesla Semi efficiency vs. rail to add one little "pro" item to lists like @ReflexFunds , had no idea we'd analyze the daylights out of this.
 
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UncaNed

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2015
1,487
5,451
East coast
So, you're saying you are a masochist? ;)

The problem here is the share price is determined by investor sentiment which is really hard to predict in advance. We are likely close to a "step change" in the way investors think about Tesla (meaning within a year or perhaps as long as two). When that happens the share price will probably run up unexpectedly well past your sell point. The few thousand here and there that you may have been able to "scalp" will more likely than not pale in comparison to what you missed out on. I understand you think you are avoiding that problem since you are only trading a portion of your TSLA investment but that is really irrelevant (you have to look at every dollar individually). The only way that strategy makes any sense is if you want to partially hedge your long position because you think Tesla might not ever amount to much or might be a losing investment (by reducing exposure when you think Tesla might decline).

While I agree that would have been a good strategy over the last several years (assuming you have better than average ability to time the drops and the rises), the past behavior does not indicate future behavior and we are likely entering a new phase.
You're probably right. Which ultimately does better, the 90% held shares or the 10% gambled shares?

But how many "step changes" in not so many words- did we tell ourselves we saw in the last 4 years because we saw a short squeeze or whatever, and still SP dropped by $100 anyway?

-Edited for poor composition.
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,966
23,916
Texas
one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!
At some point, the battery will be changed.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
938
2,270
viena va United States
I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.
  • Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
  • The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
  • Tesla is also prioritising AWD production over SR+ for Europe which should encourage trade ups and better ASP in Q4.
  • The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
  • Some prices were increased in Q4.
  • Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
  • Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
  • Likely continued work on production cost savings.
On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).
@ReflexFunds Thanks again for the Der Spiegel article. Read again. Very interesting for what it says and does not say.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,326
40,782
Michigan
That theory has been mentioned already, and you are right. The pickup is paying for the development of this new powertrain, and the S/X and Roadster are the beneficiaries.

Hummm, Roadster 2020 is the first plaid and was demoed when the pickup was just concept art (as far as we know). Pickup could go solid axle like the semi for loading reasons versus the center mounted drive unit style. (can also do that style with load structure separate from drive (a wishbone around the drive unit).

Regardless isn't all drive unit development is R&D? If so, it is the company as a whole paying for the development, not a specific model (distinction needed for COGS once in production).
 

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