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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,821
5,302
USA
I don’t want to over-generalize here, but is the typical Ford buyer a likely candidate for early adopter EV switching? And a $50k car is a luxury car. How many Ford buyers are going to pony up for that?

Take a look at which cars are being traded in for Teslas. How many Fords do you see?

There were a lot of Bolt early adopters, but the biggest issue for a lot of buyers is long distance travel. Until there are more 1st/3rd party fast chargers, the legacy OEMs won't gain much traction.

I think if the legacy OEMs can reduce the pain of long distance travel, they'll be fine.
 

Fred42

Active Member
Dec 24, 2018
1,054
2,982
Pennsylvania
Ford this year has only sold 55,000 Mustangs. Each year they sell fewer of them. I’d be shocked if more than 10% of current Mustang owners buy a Mustang EV for their next car. So that’s 5000 sales there.
Time will tell, but the Mustang tie-in might be a mistake. The Mustang is something from the past, first introduced 55 years ago. They could have made this CUV look better without the Mustang styling cues. And I'm skeptical about the amount of respect this poseur Mustang will get. The VW ID3 looks good and it looks fresh and it looks like a car for the future. Hopefully the final designs for VW ID models that will be sold in the US will look as good.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
926
2,247
viena va United States
In the US.

In Europe they are doing quite well.
Ummhhhh, no. No they are not. Not even close to meeting goals. No waiting lists, not hundreds of people waiting on boats to deliver.

Tesla has not built out a full EU reach but once done....I can't see any Version 1 of the aforementioned doing well nor having useful resale values.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
926
2,247
viena va United States
In order to compete with first mover Tesla, Ford had to do one of two things:

1. Offer a better deal. Say, a car with 200 mile range for $32k.

2. Offer a car that has better styling. Or at least different styling.

The Mustang appears to be a very commendable effort. But by merely copying Tesla on styling and price, it’s a fail.
Yes, 5 years ago this could have done ok..maybe. IF Ford had committed to all the other network support (SC, OTA Updates for all software, progressive improvements in Autonomy).
 

ggies07

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 8, 2012
3,879
7,437
DFW
I'm both excited and terrified to see what they cooked up.
giphy.gif
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
Like Jaguar, Ford will claim yes.

In reality you will only be able to download trivial software.

For extensive firmware fixes, it will require visits to the dealer.

For Ford loyalist that think Tesla is "fledgling" and Ford is an Iron Fortress guaranteed to see the 22nd Century Mach-E will be a very compelling option.

I also think CCS Network will be good enough by the start of Q4 next year.

If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,851
76,534
At home
Yes,

Additional income cap of $200k for individuals and $350k for two income households. The standard BEV rebate has been reduced from $2500 to $2k.

There is a bonus rebate for low-moderate income families.

A family of four making 300% of Federal Poverty Income level ($77,250) or less qualify for a larger rebate of $4500.

Each household now only qualifies for 1 lifetime rebate. Unlimited before.

No multiple rebates for Teslanaires. Long term this is the only way to defend the CA rebate program from Oil Industry propaganda.

Thanks - I agree with you, although the whole US subsidy thang with limits is very flawed. As always, stop the fossil subsidy and we're all good to drop all EV subsidies.

Copied some of your text to Twitter, txs.
 

willow_hiller

Active Member
Apr 3, 2019
3,207
15,782
Maryland
If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

The question then is: can all those dealerships afford to stay in business when they're no longer making money from servicing ICE vehicles?
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Supporting Member
Nov 15, 2013
9,851
76,534
At home
AND what exactly is wrong with Windows 95 ?

Well for a start it's noy OSX. Next!

On-topic - we all know there's a $350 cap on the SP this week to try and trim the huge losses the MM's are likely taking on the recent steep rise, but I feel they'll have theior worklk cut-out to keep it down today. Unless we get the usual options-Friday OI intervention, that is...
 

HG Wells

Martian Embassy
Apr 5, 2016
2,120
15,517
Visas Tuesdays 2-4
Let's do da math for Ford.

If charging in the knee of the curve gets you 47 miles in 10 minutes how long to get 80 % charge ?

Assume it's the 300 mile battery. 80 % of 300 is 240.

If it could charge at full speed the entire time 240 / 47 * 10 = 51 minutes

If full speed for first 50% then 2/3 for next 10 % then 1/2 for next 10% then 1/4 speed for next 10 %.
(5.1 * 5) + (5.1 * 3/2) + (5.1 * 2) + (5.1 * 4) = 63.75 minutes *

*Yes I know but it will be close.

Ford is definitely better,
provides more time for a leisurely lunch.
 
Last edited:

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,958
23,896
Texas
If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.
True, but many are in inconvenient locations for travelers, the charging stalls may only be accessible during business hours, the dealers may not want to pony up for the $125K installation plus ongoing electricity bills. Fast charging at dealerships is questionable at best. (Of course, there will be some that are winning locations, but the majority aren't). Of course, I suppose they could overcome this with a $7,000 surcharge for fast charger use.
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
926
2,247
viena va United States
If Ford is serious, and let's assume that they are, it would be easy to require each dealership to add a fast charging station. Hell, there's a Ford dealership in almost every town.

Not so many in small towns, the dealers are consolidating and closing smaller dealerships left and right. I know of 3 within 30mins of me that closed. That said, it is a good idea. Thus, won't happen.
 

sparcs

Active Member
Nov 8, 2018
1,180
6,954
USA
Time will tell, but the Mustang tie-in might be a mistake. The Mustang is something from the past, first introduced 55 years ago. They could have made this CUV look better without the Mustang styling cues. And I'm skeptical about the amount of respect this poseur Mustang will get. The VW ID3 looks good and it looks fresh and it looks like a car for the future. Hopefully the final designs for VW ID models that will be sold in the US will look as good.

It's great for tesla investors though. Brings more attention to Tesla. Why buy a knockoff when you can buy the real thing?

Ford's mistake in not creating any of their own EV brand identity is Tesla's gain.
 

LeChef92

Member
Mar 13, 2019
6
398
Zurich
Hello everyone

Usually I'm just a reader here but I would like to share a few thoughts and experiences I made recently.
Currently I am in Shanghai. Luckily I was able to convince my better half to spend a day to travel to the GF3 and check if we can walk around it.

GF3 Visit
How to get there from Shanghai centre (our hotel is close to Yu Yuan Garden, approx. 10 minutes from the Bund):
We went there by Metro/Subway (I recommend to download MetroMan App) and Taxi:

As a foreigner it’s probably impossible to go there just by public transport. There is a Bus stop 10 minutes away, but no way will you find the right line.
Dishui Lake is probably the closest Metro station.
Metro.jpg


From City Centre to GF 3 it took us 1 ¾ hours.
And now to the interesting part: pictures

GF3-East2.jpg
Picture below the fence (10 cm gap). East side.

GF3-Model3Parking1.jpg

Model 3 parked on the east end of the factory.

There are approx. 10 Model 3 on the west side, right next to the big gait on the south west corner of the main building, It seems this is the End of the assembly line.
On the other side are at least 60 Model 3 parked, I saw white, blue and black model 3.
GF3-NorthEast.jpg
GF3-NorthEast2.jpg
Northeast corner
GF3-NorthWest.jpg
Northwest corner
GF3-SouthEast.jpg

Southeast corner

You can walk around the factory, but you need good footwear. I recommend to start in the North West corner, the whole west side has a sidewalk, some parts of it still under construction. But you can walk on the street there. On the south side is a nice small forest, it seems the construction workers had more than one party there considering the amount of empty bottles. The road on the south side goes through this small forest. On the east side along the fence you will have to walk at the edge of a rice field. It’s muddy and if you reach the northeast corner you will meet a pretty surprised security guard because you will end on the wrong side of the parking checkpoint (this parking lot is outside the ID controlled area, no worries, security seems to be on point. All entrances are guarded).

We haven’t thought about our journey back to the metro, luckily we found a woman, waiting for her boyfriend who works for Tesla, she ordered a Taxi for us (thanks again lady in red). We had two hours to walk around the factory, inclusive taking pictures, filming and discussing what we saw.

On our way back we surpassed a model 3 on a truck, 3 minutes from GF3. White, with areos, no Chinese or western type marking (the P3D thing) visible.
GF3-Model3-1.jpg

GF3-Model3-2.jpg


I have a few videos from each side but my VPN can’t handle it and I’m a noob in video editing (faces, No. plates visible). But if you have specific questions I might be able to post screenshots.

Even more OT:
Who I am:
• Young mechanical engineer from Switzerland (worked for a CIGS solar start-up and an exhaust gas filter producer for ships, power plants and such)
• Indirect investor in tsla (my brother manages my father’s portfolio and I am like a technical consultant). Our investment strategy regarding tsla: Buy and hold.

Currently I am travelling the world. I will share my personal views and experiences I made along the way. So far besides the GF3 visit I had the following impressions:
1. Thailand
EVs are completely inexistent there. In two weeks I only saw an i8 and many prius, but no
EVs. I have talked to the family of my wife’s mother, nobody has heard of Tesla so far. An owner of an Audi R8 who i met in a bar knows Tesla because of the Nürnburgring fight with Porsche but has never considered to buy an EV.
The market for the cybrtrk would be huge here, it felt like every fourth car was a pick up. They use the pick-ups for everything. We even saw somebody sleeping in a hammock which was mounted above the bed during rush-hour on the highway in Bangkok.
2. China
We are currently in Shanghai, what a difference to Bangkok: I haven’t seen an ICE scooter until now (6th day here), all are EV, it’s awesome. One thing has to be mentioned: Those things are super-fast, their riders don’t care about traffic rules and they are silent, too silent. I already saw two accidents where a scooter driver crashed into a pedestrian. On the positive side: They are used to plug in their vehicle from young age and range anxiety shouldn’t be a problem here. Even more so that they usually make even less km in the city then we do in Europe or US. Also the air is clear (probably we are super lucky because the plants have been shut down because of the international china import expo in shanghai). I asked the waiter in our hotel and he told me we should really enjoy every day here as long as the sky is blue, therefore the clean air is probably just luck.

Tesla sightings in Shanghai (driven on the road, not GF3 related):
2x model 3
7x model S (3x pre facelift)
4x model X (two which are owned by a hotel whose name I unfortunately can’t remember…)

Our journey will lead us to the following destinations:
China: Xi'an, Beijing
Mongolia: Ulaanbaatar
South Korea: Soul, Busan
Japan: Tokyo, Kyoto, Kobe, Osaka
Canada: Vancouver, Vancouver Island
USA: Seattle, LA, Grand Canyon, Las Vegas, SF
Costa Rica

I will try to post on interesting things and topics regarding EV and PV.
My English isn't too good, if you have any suggestions on improvement feel free to tell me.

Stay long!
LeChef
 

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