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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

winfield100

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Feb 16, 2013
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vivant non-traveler
Just for fun, and since it is Sunday - if Tesla and Ford announce a partnership tonight, will it change your investment strategy for TSLA in anyway? Would you buy F?
Well, 1,000 shares of Ford would cost ~$1,020, and 1,000 shares of TSLA....( more than I can afford)
and if F bounces up say $1.00/share......
 

SoGA Fan Club

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May 22, 2019
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Savannah, GA
And the software
And autopilot standard
And the FSD
And the production cost efficiency
And large scale battery pack production

But other than that, what has tesla ever done for us ?

caraoke and Spotify and Netflix - fine

I should have specified "range advantage" - most people buying an EV for the first time will put a TON more value on range than Netfix. I can assure you of that - especially Ford customers. They couldn't care less about AP either. Most are over 50 and won't even adapt to adaptive cruise (pun intended).

And Ford's disadvantage is battery pack cost will be nullified by their ongoing $7500 rebate availability. In other words, they may have to sell their cars for $7500 more than Tesla, but the buyer will get the $7500 rebate and see the costs as the same.
 

goinfraftw

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Supporting Member
Jan 1, 2017
945
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Just for fun, and since it is Sunday - if Tesla and Ford announce a partnership tonight, will it change your investment strategy for TSLA in anyway? Would you buy F?

My 2 cents (for whatever that is worth):

Yes. It'd dramatically increase the market size potential for Tesla with another (huge) competitor turning into a (huge) coopetitor. To be fair, Elon Musk has been saying that there's plenty of opportunity for partnerships alongside Tesla technology for years. It's the old guard taking their time to adopt the transition (in the best case).
 
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aubreymcfato

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Sep 16, 2016
1,153
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Italy
Gasoline and diesel pickup trucks with average mileage put around ~30-50 tons of CO₂ in the atmosphere, every single year. They are also very popular globally - so they are a prime target for emissions reduction.

Reducing those emissions to ... near zero sure is worth something to environmentalists that otherwise don't like SUVs and pickup trucks, right?

Help me understand the arguments green/environmentalists have with a zero-emission vehicle that can be charged by renewable energy. Is it simply a demand to return to an 18th-century-technology level?

Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
No one here knows that pickups sell millions both globally and in the US. You don't see them here (in Italy) and if you see them they are bought by posers, like the Hummers few years ago.
So if Tesla does a super-truck, many will look at it and think that is a overengineered behemoth for alpha-males with compensation problems, and @avoigt already replied about misconceptions and disinformation about batteries and EVs. Greens here advocate for public transport, much less for EVs.

This is a similar problem to the fact that when Elon/Tesla said it would have produced a "mass-market" electric car.
This is true for US (the average price is 35k, TMC taught me) but here in Europe is far less (ie. source).
Here in Italy a Model 3 SR+ costs 49.500 € for the base model. So still a premium car like BMW/Audi/Mercedes.
Basically, all other EVs cost less than M3.
So I hope you start understanding the different perspective people can have here towards Tesla.

I personally think that Tesla will be seen in a different light from the "green" side after the Semi, and also after Tesla Energy actually ramps up and sells a bunch of Megapacks projects also here.
Those to me are real game changers, and there are no arguments against that I can think of.
Semi will be big in terms of PR.
 

elasalle

driVIN(188xx) it !!
Jan 26, 2016
4,526
25,831
VA
No partnerships until Battery Day. If battery tech takes a giant leap, partnerships might be imminent.

Same for FSD, no one will want the half-balked solution. But were FSD to be complete, others would be willing to pay premium to get the tech .. and Tesla could sell them both h/w (new chips) and Software.
 

dww12

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Nov 10, 2018
895
5,940
San Antonio
Hey, I thought it was downright psychotic until @dww12 added some very good points also. There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make. :D
Nobody has ever used me as evidence of sanity.
 

sparcs

Active Member
Nov 8, 2018
1,180
6,954
USA
Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
pickup trucks and suv/crossovers are the key to the US market. If Tesla gets those right, then there will be an even bigger shift towards EVs and other Tesla Energy products here in the US.

I would expect unique Tesla products for the European and Chinese auto markets as well.
 
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dww12

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Nov 10, 2018
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Hey, I thought it was downright psychotic until @dww12 added some very good points also. There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make. :D

OMG, How did I miss this one the mother of all evidence it’s a partnership. Ford gets full EV credit. That means Tesla get full EV credit through the back door selling the most expensive part of the car. That gives 0 loss to Tesla for Ford selling a ton of Mach Es at potentially a slightly lower OTD price with the full EV credit.
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Supporting Member
Mar 24, 2011
7,000
27,724
San Diego, CA
It wouldn't surprise me if Ford and Tesla have partnered to some extent. Has anyone seen what is inside the charger flap of the new Ford? But anyway... back when I worked for Qualcomm we partnered with Ford in a venture called "Wingcast" to develop advanced telematics. The guy I worked with was tapped to be CTO. After a year or so he came back to HQ and said "I'll never ever think of buying a Ford."
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,116
Vienna
There is also one more piece of strange evidence now associated with my post that adds some fuel to the speculation - but I won't mention that because if I did, it would remove any claim of sanity I might still make. :D

Put that evidence for a potential Tesla-Ford partnership inside a spoiler tag, with a "Pandora's Box" label. That way no-one can blame you if anyone opens it foolishly!
 
Aug 18, 2016
305
1,941
Seattle
Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
No one here knows that pickups sell millions both globally and in the US. You don't see them here (in Italy) and if you see them they are bought by posers, like the Hummers few years ago.
So if Tesla does a super-truck, many will look at it and think that is a overengineered behemoth for alpha-males with compensation problems, and @avoigt already replied about misconceptions and disinformation about batteries and EVs. Greens here advocate for public transport, much less for EVs.

This is a similar problem to the fact that when Elon/Tesla said it would have produced a "mass-market" electric car.
This is true for US (the average price is 35k, TMC taught me) but here in Europe is far less (ie. source).
Here in Italy a Model 3 SR+ costs 49.500 € for the base model. So still a premium car like BMW/Audi/Mercedes.
Basically, all other EVs cost less than M3.
So I hope you start understanding the different perspective people can have here towards Tesla.

I personally think that Tesla will be seen in a different light from the "green" side after the Semi, and also after Tesla Energy actually ramps up and sells a bunch of Megapacks projects also here.
Those to me are real game changers, and there are no arguments against that I can think of.
Semi will be big in terms of PR.

I don't think it is a bad thing at all if subway riding Greens in Europe are pissed off about Tesla's cybertruck. That will just make the people who actually buy trucks like it more. And Greens that love mass transit aren't going to buy a Tesla anyways, so who cares? As an aside, I feel that any "environmentalists" that complains about electric SUV's does not care about the environment so much, but cares deeply about telling other people what to do.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,116
Vienna
Where is Carsonight with the reveal on increased cell production, where are the supplier order volume increases, etc.

Here you go:

Carsonight:

"I have it on good authority that GF1 is ramping up to 10k batteries per week. In China, initial production of 3k per week will be batteries from GF1."
:D

He wrote that a month ago.

Note how according to the CleanTechnica leak, Tesla stopped sending excess battery packs to GF3 in Q3:

Tesla Gigafactory 3 Has ~7,000 Battery Packs In Stock For Chinese Model 3 Production, Will Use LG Chem Cells In 2020 | CleanTechnica

"Tesla Gigafactory 1 has been supplying battery packs to Gigafactory 3 since the beginning of August. The company has been sending between 400 and 750 battery packs per week depending on what was needed in the Fremont factory at the time. The final shipment for 2019 was sent 2 weeks ago. So, basically 2019 GF3 battery packs were shipped over a period of 12 weeks."​

Why would they need the full 8k-10k/week Model 3 battery pack production capacity in Q4?
 
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bhtooefr

Active Member
Apr 16, 2018
1,156
6,543
Newark, OH, USA
Europeans are a special bunch. They’ll complain about the environmental impact of a large EV truck, but they’ve had no issue being the biggest supporters of diesel cars/trucks. You can’t make this stuff up....
Blaming Europeans as a collective - or even European regulators to an extent - for supporting diesels is a bit problematic, considering that they were lied to (although they do have slightly superior CO2 emissions performance compared to non-hybrid gasoline vehicles (not hybrids though, and not EVs), although some automakers have caught up most of that gap with much lower-cost technology than diesels need). Then organizations figured out that the criteria pollutant emissions performance was a lie, and diesel support is evaporating. (I will blame European regulators for some massive loopholes in NEDC that the automakers successfully lobbied for, but then, those loopholes weren't just used for diesels, they were also used for gasoline cars, and I'd be wholly unsurprised if some of the legacy automakers' EVs have using them as well. In any case, due to Dieselgate bringing attention to those loopholes, WLTP+RDE attempts to close them.)

And, plenty of entrenched interests are releasing FUD-laden studies (use Chinese manufacturing processes that aren't optimized to minimize emissions and use coal power, and then apply those results to a Tesla+Panasonic cell made with cutting-edge processes to minimize emissions, and made with renewable electricity), those FUD-laden studies get picked up by well-meaning metastudies, and that perpetuates further lies (sometimes intentionally, sometimes unintentionally).

Additionally, a truck large enough to compete with American full-size pickups will almost certainly be too large to work well for most of the European market (I know KarenRei has said that Iceland is an exception, and I suspect there's other parts of Northern Europe that are exceptions). This creates problems for parking, road width (something American width can easily end up not fitting in some areas), safety (more mass means more danger to people walking, on bicycles, and in smaller cars, and an "armored personnel carrier" doesn't sound like something designed to work well for pedestrian crash safety regulations), as well as energy consumption (which, yes, doesn't matter as much with renewables... but it still matters, especially if you're supply-limited on renewables (in which case people adopting vehicles with excessive energy consumption because they're "cool" actually slows down the transition to sustainable energy)).

I've said before, I see Tesla as harm reduction. The best thing is to optimize cities for people, not cars, and have efficient, frequent, and clean mass transit, and safe, useful cycling infrastructure. But, you're going to have a lot of situations where cars and trucks are unavoidable (whether because people are doing things where mass transit is simply impractical and distances are too far for cycling, or because they simply won't give up their car and in fact will move further out from the urban core to keep their car), and that's where Tesla (automotive) comes in, to make that more sustainable than it currently is.

People who don't currently have or need trucks rushing out and buying Cybrtrks actually does reduce sustainability from the baseline.
 
Aug 18, 2016
305
1,941
Seattle
I had the same fantasy that the Mach E might be Tesla on the inside, but the thing that convinced me it wasn't is that the charging speed is way lower than Model Y. My current theory is that they are just lying about the specs for now to match the Model Y, and hope to figure something out in the next year. Maybe the false specs will keep the stock up for another year and allow the exec's to collect a nice yearly bonus?
 

bhtooefr

Active Member
Apr 16, 2018
1,156
6,543
Newark, OH, USA
Regarding the Mach E, if it's any other automaker's product underneath, I'd guess it's an ID Crozz variant, given Ford's already-announced partnership with VW on the MEB platform. (That partnership announcement is what actually got me to get out of my bear position against Ford - it changed my thesis (which was based on a purely backwards-looking move towards ICE SUVs and pickups only) enough to look for a good exit point and not stay in.)

However, I thought the Mach E was announced as being something other than that...
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,437
62,352
Tesla friendly place
I think I understand quite fine... my first cell phone was a Motorola Brick, and I've owned a plethora of models up to my current iPhone X. I drove my folk's 1961 Plymouth Valiant (replete with push-button transmission), up through my current Model S. I've lived through the changes of interfaces of both phone and cars, as many here have,

By and large the items you describe are simply non-issues for the majority. Yes, I occasionally mis-type on my iPhone virtual keyboard. But I also inadvertently press the wrong key on my Blackberry. The iPhone is still a vastly more capable device. Likewise I occasionally don't hit the temp control squarely enough on my Model S to register. But then again I've accidentally hit the control stalk on my Toyota and triggered the wipers when I didn't mean too either. The S is still car in another league.

My point is that for the vast majority of folks, these aren't showstoppers. And as the newer generations compose more and more of the car buying market, the objection will be less and less. For those that remain, there's the Jitterbug, and it's numerous automotive equivalents.

As for updates: I have a 2013 Model S. Original MCU 1 design. After 6-1/2 years of owning it I just got Spotify. I expect next update to add departure-based charge scheduling. Of course support will stop at some point... I can't get some replacement parts for older cars either. But until then, what's this nonsense about not getting useful updates?

What I took from this is that you have poor fine motor hand skills. I don’t want you as my Jenga partner. No offense.
 

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