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Just a minor correction: USA != World. But yes, the pick-up market in the US is huge. Success will depend on 1, how crazy Elon got with the design (one key Tesla success factor was that their cars look like normal cars) 2, how quickly thy can start making them.

PS: For instance the US and European new car market is roughly the same size (2018 US was 17.3M Europe was 15.6M), but about 8 of the European Top 10 would fit in the back of an F150.

But those top 10 sellers also deliver exceptionally cheap running costs. As I understand it, Europe has very high gas prices. So with an EV having a much lower running cost, we may not be able to extrapolate the European preference for highly fuel efficient gas cars to EVs.
 
Not to single you out but it feels like every month, we go through this discussion on Euro market sales. Norway sales in Q2 and Q3 have nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Just look at the ratio of LR verses SR for Model 3 in what sales there are for Norway this month. Almost entirely LR and P Model 3s. If Tesla was seeing even remotely soft demand in Norway, that ratio would be reversed
But we don't really know that, do we?

Yes, it could be that the Netherlands are prioritized in Europe right now, but if Norway was artificially held back by supply, you'd see delivery estimates grow a lot longer than the rest of Europe. Yet, if you try and order a Model 3 in Norway, the site shows delivery estimates of February for SR+ and P and December for LR. (That's the same as the Dutch and German order site shows except for Performance, but that's 5-10% of deliveries only).

As for SR/LR ratio, it could just be, that due to the colder climate and lots of snow, more people order the bigger battery and AWD for winter range with heating and better traction.
 
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Actually, we have such a leak, from 4 months ago:

Tesla supplier hints at massive increase in Model 3 production - Electrek

“will increase monthly shipments for components of relays used in Tesla Model 3 vehicles from about 20,000 units currently to 40,000 units beginning August 2019”.

“CFTC has also landed orders for other components used in Model 3, with shipments to begin in October 2019, the sources said. As Tesla is hiking Model 3 output and its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, eastern China, will kick off production of the electric vehicle by year-end 2019, CFTC’s shipments to Tesla are expected to rise, the sources noted.”​

Several months of lead time for a 100% increase in production would be justified. These components (relays) might be battery pack or power train related.

This supplier increase leak too is consistent with a significant increase of Model 3 production in Q4.

We do know battery packs have been the limiting factor for Model 3 production previously, at least one of the major ones.

When they can produce thousands extra and ship to shanghai, they must have gotten the automation to work properly I would think.. and maybe they have a few thousand extra a week which they use at Fremont?

Suddenly - the previously planned 10k model3/week isnt that far fetched after all?
 
Speculation runs wild lately around here.
Especially non-compete with Ford.

Well, what EV platform will Ford use in late 2020 for the Ford Mustang Mach E?
  • VW ID.3: nope, not planned for the U.S., specs are not nearly as good as the Mach E anyway.
  • VW ID.4: nope, factory just got started a few days ago. 2021 at the earliest. Nor are the specs good enough.
  • Rivian: the specs match, but they have no factory and no battery supply yet, plus the Ford partnership is rumored to be about a pickup truck - the F-150E?
  • Ford R&D invented a time machine and stole their own EV tech from 2030, which by then will match 2020 Tesla tech. This is my second best guess.
I.e. by process of elimination pretty much only Tesla is left as Ford's EV platform partner?

Assuming the Mach E specs are truthful, which probably got leaked inadvertently. If they hadn't gotten leaked then the suspiciously Tesla-alike specs would normally not have been in news after the unveil event today, assuming Ford partners with Tesla.

Anyway, given that there's only a few hours until the unveil, this post might age incredibly poorly. :eek:
 
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Well, what EV platform will Ford use in late 2020 for the Ford Mustang Mach E?
  • VW ID.3: nope, not planned for the U.S., specs are not nearly as good as the Mach E anyway.
  • VW ID.4: nope, factory just got started a few days ago. 2021 at the earliest. Nor are the specs good enough.
  • Rivian: the specs match, but they have no factory and no battery supply yet, plus the Ford partnership is rumored to be about a pickup truck - the F-150E?
  • Ford R&D invented a time machine and stole their own EV tech from 2030, which by then will match 2020 Tesla tech. This is my second best guess.
I.e. by process of elimination pretty much only Tesla is left as Ford's EV platform partner?

Assuming the Mach E specs are truthful, which probably got leaked inadvertently. - I.e. the suspiciously Tesla-alike specs would normally not have been news after the unveil event today, if Ford partners with Tesla.

(@KarenRei is very silent today. ;))

Anyway, given that it's only a few hours until the unveil, this post might age incredibly poorly. :eek:
The frunk looks large and similar to M3? The motor and controller needs to have a specific layout for this. Mach-E: Ford Mustang Inspired EV
 
If F partners with Tessie then @anthonyj will turn out to be spot on with that $700 price target for this week :D

Some unreal upside here that hasn't been priced in, regardless of potench partnerships.
ITS GOING TO $700 THIS WEEK and it’s BULLISH AF

A partnership would be the guillotine to bears. They still think Tesla is CGI and not a real car company
 
Well, what EV platform will Ford use in late 2020 for the Ford Mustang Mach E?
  • VW ID.3: nope, not planned for the U.S., specs are not nearly as good as the Mach E anyway.
  • VW ID.4: nope, factory just got started a few days ago. 2021 at the earliest. Nor are the specs good enough.
  • Rivian: the specs match, but they have no factory and no battery supply yet, plus the Ford partnership is rumored to be about a pickup truck - the F-150E?
  • Ford R&D invented a time machine and stole their own EV tech from 2030, which by then will match 2020 Tesla tech. This is my second best guess.
I.e. by process of elimination pretty much only Tesla is left as Ford's EV platform partner?

Assuming the Mach E specs are truthful, which probably got leaked inadvertently. - I.e. the suspiciously Tesla-alike specs would normally not have been news after the unveil event today, if Ford partners with Tesla.

(@KarenRei is very silent today. ;))

Anyway, given that it's only a few hours until the unveil, this post might age incredibly poorly. :eek:
IDK what Ford is planning to do, but see no benefit for Tesla burdening itself with any non-compete agreements that would stand in the way of clearing the non efficient junk from the streets.

Mach E should have worse aerodynamics judging by its nose, I don't think it can have range parity with Tesla using Tesla drivetrain.

But non-compete with trucks especially doesn't make sense, since these are most wasteful in terms of energy.

I don't want Tesla to share batteries with anybody, unless they make so many cells that they can't sell them all in their own cars(and powerwalls). I think 2020 will not be the year when Tesla has a large excess of batteries considering the Y.

Would be interesting to listen to the battery investor day before any partnerships get announced.
 
Details taking shape around GF4 investment on Twitter. Probably needs additional verfication.

Can any Germans advise how reputable automobilwoche.com is?

Hari Seldon on Twitter

View attachment 477944
Part of the url says "Agenturmeldungen" = [news] agency messages. This is just pass-through of a dpa (deutsche presse agentur) message that appeared on several sites today.
 
IDK what Ford is planning to do, but see no benefit for Tesla burdening itself with any non-compete agreements that would stand in the way of clearing the non efficient junk from the streets.

Mach E should have worse aerodynamics judging by its nose, I don't think it can have range parity with Tesla using Tesla drivetrain.

But non-compete with trucks especially doesn't make sense, since these are most wasteful in terms of energy.

I don't want Tesla to share batteries with anybody, unless they make so many cells that they can't sell them all in their own cars(and powerwalls). I think 2020 will not be the year when Tesla has a large excess of batteries considering the Y.

Would be interesting to listen to the battery investor day before any partnerships get announced.
Think of Tesla as a homicidal drug dealer. Hook these automakers with batteries, cut em off a decade later, watch them flop around like fish without water... and presto, Tesla is now the only automaker in the world. So easy, an Elon can do it
 
But those top 10 sellers also deliver exceptionally cheap running costs. As I understand it, Europe has very high gas prices. So with an EV having a much lower running cost, we may not be able to extrapolate the European preference for highly fuel efficient gas cars to EVs.
I could not agree with this more. You could make the same argument with performance too in addition to size. Just because Europeans (or Americans), don't buy tons of 400hp+ sports cars, doesn't not mean that we don't want to drive like a-holes. We just don't want to pay for the gas.
 
Basically I think that many will see the cybrtrck as a solution for nobody's problem.
No one here knows that pickups sell millions both globally and in the US. You don't see them here (in Italy) and if you see them they are bought by posers, like the Hummers few years ago.
So if Tesla does a super-truck, many will look at it and think that is a overengineered behemoth for alpha-males with compensation problems, and @avoigt already replied about misconceptions and disinformation about batteries and EVs. Greens here advocate for public transport, much less for EVs.

This is a similar problem to the fact that when Elon/Tesla said it would have produced a "mass-market" electric car.
This is true for US (the average price is 35k, TMC taught me) but here in Europe is far less (ie. source).
Here in Italy a Model 3 SR+ costs 49.500 € for the base model. So still a premium car like BMW/Audi/Mercedes.
Basically, all other EVs cost less than M3.
So I hope you start understanding the different perspective people can have here towards Tesla.

I personally think that Tesla will be seen in a different light from the "green" side after the Semi, and also after Tesla Energy actually ramps up and sells a bunch of Megapacks projects also here.
Those to me are real game changers, and there are no arguments against that I can think of.
Semi will be big in terms of PR.
May be in terms of PR in Europe the Semi is bigger deal than the pickup, but in real pollution and Co2 savings the pickup will have much bigger impact. The reason for this is that diesel Semi may pollute a lot, but they are used for their purposes 100% of the time, while pickup trucks are used as commuting vehicles 90% of the time, which is complete waste. The cyber truck can eliminate that waste.
 
I wasn't talking beautiful, just not a "weirdmobile". It's one thing if something looks cool on a sci-fi movie est and a different matter what people would actually drive home. But Hans is yet to disappoint, so I am optimistic.

Wanna see a weirdmobile? Look at any new hybrid from Toyota.
2020 Toyota Prius Prime Gallery & Exterior Photos

These abominations are hideous to my eyes because their form is almost completely divorced from function. The face of a vehicle should be smooth to minimize air drag, not pockmarked like a junk-food-addicted teenager. Like the tail fins on American monstrosities from the 1950s, Toyota's design is an attempt to distinguish a product that has no functional advantages to distinguish it. Tesla doesn't have that problem.

I agree with @9837264723849 that an innovative design with functional advantages will redefine the standards of beauty and weirdness. Some folks said Tesla's huge touchscreen looked weird; now Ford is copying it. Some folks said Apple's first laptop with a rear-mounted keyboard looked weird; now every laptop has it. Common tastes will catch up to the style leaders.
 
Anyway, seems like 100% of TMC will now be watching F reveal to see if any partnership rumors leak :D

Nope. I'm not going to waste my time.

To be truthful, I'm just sitting here stunned this morning. I feel like I have entered an alternate reality where reality doesn't really matter.

1) Tesla partnering with Ford? Why? This is ridiculousness.
2) If Tesla and Ford partner, TSLA shares shoot to the moon? Why? They might go down with that kind of bearish news.

Both of these ridiculous notions are rooted in the same fallacy, namely, that Ford has something that Tesla wants! Let me make something clear right now:

Ford has absolutely NOTHING that Tesla wants!

This is not going to happen. The specs and timelines Ford has released for their entry into mass-market EV's is a wish list, pure fantasy. I'm shocked people are still getting fooled by these desperate statements.