Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JustMe]

Folks - I’m going to try to join the Tesla queue blacklist. Any guesses how long it will take?

Scott on Twitter

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Would you trust Tesla more with an electric car’s reliability, performance, and maintenance or do you put more trust in Ford in the same aspects?

There’s a reason why people say FORD stands for Fix Or Repair Daily. After 100 years of practice, they still can’t get ICE right. So I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Tesla

 

[dc_h]

ONLY 60K!!??

I taught for 29 years and didn't make 60K until about 20 years in and 3 degrees later!

Dan

I hear ya. I started out under 10k many years back, working full time and paying for college. 60k ain't what it used to be.

 

[wipster]

Tesmanian has a cooler for the trunk, but not the frunk:
Soft Cooler for Tesla Model 3
Although, I do think the frunk cooler would be more useful.

Can you imagine how a vehicle with a sealed 30 gallon compartment partly full of liquid would affect the handling?

Oh wait...

 

[wipster]

There’s a reason why people say FORD stands for Fix Or Repair Daily. After 100 years of practice, they still can’t get ICE right. So I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Tesla

Don't forget Found On Road Dead, as well as F*cked On Race Day...

 

[StealthP3D]

They will start by selling $50k-~$65k Mach E Made in Mexico with labor rates of $4.82/hr( compared to $6.50/hr in China) with plentiful but cheap benefits to Ford.

Plentiful, cheap labor is only an advantage if you are making a product with large and growing demand. Unfortunately for Ford, by the time they release their $50K-$65K Mach-E, Tesla's better and less expensive Model Y will already be available.

Sure, Ford will sell some Mach-E's to people who like cars like that, but the Mach-E will not be a runaway success like the Model Y will be because it has to compete with the Made in America Model Y. And a lot of car buyers who buy American cars care about the "Made in America". But the real problem is the Mach-E is so inferior to the Model Y in just about every way. I would disqualify it right off the bat since their fast-charging network is so inferior. Tesla locates their Superchargers where there are other services, most Ford dealerships that I've visited are huge lots (usually in a semi-industrial area) where there might not even be a place to get a bite to eat. Or take care of nature if it's after hours.

Why would anyone buy the Ford when they can get a high quality Made in America EV for less. Unfortunately, it's not going to be a big seller. And Ford doesn't seem to be in a big hurry to release their electric F-150 either. It's all just show and a way for them to dip their toes in the EV waters. That's not a successful strategy.

 

[dc_h]

Does anyone know what this new taller building going up on the north end of the Fremont factory is? It was on the picture in Teslarati today about word of mouth marketing. I checked the satellite pictures and it seems to be recent, not there in August, maybe starting end of September. About the only thing I can think of is Jerome saying the production team is going to be excited. Could it be a new battery production facility? The press that builds the whole car frame? A giant parts inventory warehouse? It appears to be about 15 stories tall, if it were a commercial building.
I zoomed in to 4x, but i have no idea. Sorry if this has come up already, but I have seen nothing posted on this new building.

 

[Intl Professor]

ONLY 60K!!??

I taught for 29 years and didn't make 60K until about 20 years in and 3 degrees later!

Dan

Here I am bragging for the top bottom. I started with three degrees and two years' teaching experience elsewhere. Maxed out before formal retirement at about 70k at a state university after 35 years. Always felt underpaid, but happy to be continuing my college education to almost 50 years. That is what Jerry Brown famously called our additional "psychic income."

 

[Skryll]

Why would anyone buy the Ford when they can get a high quality Made in America EV for less. Unfortunately, it's not going to be a big seller. And Ford doesn't seem to be in a big hurry to release their electric F-150 either. It's all just show and a way for them to dip their toes in the EV waters. That's not a successful strategy.

Don't underestimate brand stickiness and influence of marketing dollars, plus cultural roots deep not just in Michigans workforce but dealer and supply chain network nation wide, plus all the political assets (lobbyists, politicians). The real limiting factor IMHO is going to be profitability at scale and battery supply, because of the lack of vertical integration and cutting edge automation.

 

[kengchang]

Does anyone know what this new taller building going up on the north end of the Fremont factory is? It was on the picture in Teslarati today about word of mouth marketing. I checked the satellite pictures and it seems to be recent, not there in August, maybe starting end of September. About the only thing I can think of is Jerome saying the production team is going to be excited. Could it be a new battery production facility? The press that builds the whole car frame? A giant parts inventory warehouse? It appears to be about 15 stories tall, if it were a commercial building.
I zoomed in to 4x, but i have no idea. Sorry if this has come up already, but I have seen nothing posted on this new building.
View attachment 478417 View attachment 478415

Er this? That's the automatic warehousing built a while ago

 

[EVMeister]

Does anyone know what this new taller building going up on the north end of the Fremont factory is?
View attachment 478417 View attachment 478415

It looks like a giant processor heat sink.

 

[ZeApelido]

4,740 minutes until Cybertruck reveal.

 

[RobStark]

Given Tesla's approach, if Ford can build the Mach E as a CUV at basically same cost as a sedan, if gives them a few $k in extra revenue per vehicle to cover their costs... costs that are almost certainly higher than Tesla's with the Y (given the 25% bigger battery for Ford to come to the neighborhood of the Y's specs, among several inherent cost disadvantages for Ford).

I think the extra cost of ~25 kWh of batteries will be more than made up for in Mexican vs Bay Area California labor cost. And as far as the Mach E glyder goes, Ford has greater economies of scale when buying generic things like tires,glass, steel etc.

Not related to above...

Re Tesla specific features.

Of course Mach E will not have Tesla specific features. Mach E will have Apple Carplay and probably Android Auto soon after launch.

Mache E will also have hardware for true hands off highway driving with enabling software coming about a year later. Similar to Cadillac Supercruise.

I showed my 94 year old Dad pictures of the Mace E. He would like it to be my next car. Because it has grab handles.

Re Mach E vs Chevy Bolt

Bolt is a POS front wheel drive econobox compliance car built off a modified a generic GM front wheel drive platform.

Mache E is rear wheel drive/ all wheel drive BEV specific performance/luxury with a proper frunk platform. The two could not be further apart.

 

[dc_h]

Er this? That's the automatic warehousing built a while ago

View attachment 478418

Rats, you are correct. It's so old, its pretent.

 

[StealthP3D]

Now that the ridiculous Ford partnership discussion has been put to bed, let me introduce the real .1% partnership potential; Tesla and ToyRUs.

Now that's at least plausible!

 

[Fred42]

I guess you are right that each time this "competitor" nonsense comes up Tesla got dinged because lots of people believe that nonsense you said there.

Just like Apple is doomed whenever there's a new smartphone on the market. Likewise Amazon had been doomed for a dozen times already, when BN, Macy's, Walmart or even Sears opened it's online store front. After all, most people trust "real" retailers, right?

This, of course ignores numerous reports that dealers hate to sell EVs, and it matches our personal experience too. Who knew?

And getting my leaf serviced at a Nissan dealer is not exactly a walk in the park. Others can get their cars serviced in about an hour, yet leaf owners must leave their cars for a day since very few people there can do that stuff.

And this is bay area with tons of EVs. Now if you're in Indiana with only a couple of mach e owners around the town? which dealer would spend the money to train EV technicians to service that two cars when the skill is mostly useless on gas cars? And chances are that skill won't be used once in a year as the two Mach E never need service in the first place?

Lift, huh? The precious little machine you can't live without I guess? I had a 2002 Ford Taurus that gives me lots of headaches and endless financial pains as a poor graduate student, including the dreaded engine synchronizor failure that may kill you, fuel line leaking, alternator failure, cabinet thermo sensor failure, brake pedal sensor wire shorts, the list goes on. Guess what, none of that required a lift to fix.

There is no denying Tesla's service problems. But from my experience as a Leaf owners I don't expect Ford can do better. The only advantage maybe collision repair and even that is questionable.

What's more, based on recent Bloomberg survey and many anecdotal owner reporting here the service problems are getting solved. Over time we can expect the stupid laws that forbid Tesla from opening service centers would be repealed too.

I don't have high confidence on the stealership servicing EVs as they hate EVs to their gut.

The closest Tesla store within the state to my relatively affluent area is 100 miles away. For most people that's death to consideration of a purchase. There are Ford dealers everywhere.

Car dealer organizations and oil companies will have plenty of money for years to push anti-EV legislation.

My local Ford dealer rated an "A" for customer treatment when I said I wanted to look at one of their Focus Electrics and then bought it. I anticipate they would be thinking "Here comes the sucker again" if I went in to look at the Mach E, and it would go fine. (But it's now Tesla only for me even if I stop in to check it out.)

 

[TradingInvest]

Motor Trend will announce their Car of the Year winner tonight.

The Model 3 is a finalist along with the Corvette, and the Kia Soul.

For those not particularly familiar with US car awards, my sense is that most people would consider Motor Trend the most notable of the awards here.

fwiw, apparently they also have a Person of the Year Award... who knows.

busy week, lols

To me it's obvious Model 3 will win tonight.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Most of this short stuff is over my head, but surely this isn't a coincidence?? The last trade today, at 1 second before close, for $165,000, brings the SP back down under $350!

 

[Fred42]

Motor Trend will announce their Car of the Year winner tonight.

The Model 3 is a finalist along with the Corvette, and the Kia Soul.

For those not particularly familiar with US car awards, my sense is that most people would consider Motor Trend the most notable of the awards here.

fwiw, apparently they also have a Person of the Year Award... who knows.

busy week, lols

Someone mentioned advertisers, but also subscribers would have a hard time with the Model 3 winning over the new Corvette. The mid-engined Corvette has been decades in coming and is more important to the Motor Trend community than a Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Plentiful, cheap labor is only an advantage if you are making a product with large and growing demand. Unfortunately for Ford, by the time they release their $50K-$65K Mach-E, Tesla's better and less expensive Model Y will already be available.

Sure, Ford will sell some Mach-E's to people who like cars like that, but the Mach-E will not be a runaway success like the Model Y will be because it has to compete with the Made in America Model Y. And a lot of car buyers who buy American cars care about the "Made in America". But the real problem is the Mach-E is so inferior to the Model Y in just about every way. I would disqualify it right off the bat since their fast-charging network is so inferior. Tesla locates their Superchargers where there are other services, most Ford dealerships that I've visited are huge lots (usually in a semi-industrial area) where there might not even be a place to get a bite to eat. Or take care of nature if it's after hours.

Why would anyone buy the Ford when they can get a high quality Made in America EV for less. Unfortunately, it's not going to be a big seller. And Ford doesn't seem to be in a big hurry to release their electric F-150 either. It's all just show and a way for them to dip their toes in the EV waters. That's not a successful strategy.

Cheaper labor is always an advantage.

Mach E will start at $43.9k or $45k including destination fee.

Over half of Americans don't give a rats ass about where their car is made and many Midwesterners and Southerners consider California an alien land and not their kinsmen.

There is a significant percentage of Tesla owners that have never supercharged and for many the CCS Network will be good enough.

Some people simply trust Ford more than Tesla. And have much higher degree of confidence that Ford will be around in 10 years. Plus, you can get the MachE serviced or repaired at any of 2100 Mace E certified Ford dealers vs 100 or so Tesla service centers and their mobile techs.

In the ICE age the best most reliable car did not have 100% market share. At most OEMs had 10% market share globally. BEV age will be similar if not necessarily identical.