Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I think it is more likely Tesla will seek to scale and dominate world EV battery production than partner and sell whole powertrains to ICE manufacturers. Tesla's mission is to speed the transition to renewable energy. To varying degrees all the major ICE manufacturers are hamstrung as to how rapidly they can ramp their EV offerings by limited supply of advanced EV batteries. Those that are serious are beginning to plan and build giga scale battery factories with partners but I don't believe the quantities they need to meet their stated goals for X million EV by year Y are on track to meet the ambitious goals. IMO Tesla can force the transition faster by providing the huge amount of needed batteries than by also taking on building millions of power trains above and beyond what they need for their own growth.
Long term it is likely better to let the ICE companies compete and push each other to be second best behind Tesla. That will also ensure that Tesla continues to sell better vehicles that command the higher margins.

Tesla could end up the battery manufacturer/ supplier of 90% of every EV sold. That could be very profitable.

 

[Remus]

Don't underestimate brand stickiness and influence of marketing dollars, plus cultural roots deep not just in Michigans workforce but dealer and supply chain network nation wide, plus all the political assets (lobbyists, politicians). The real limiting factor IMHO is going to be profitability at scale and battery supply, because of the lack of vertical integration and cutting edge automation.

I can understand brand loyalty for Porsche, BMW or even Toyota. But Ford?! A small SUV?

And dealers never even try to hide their attitude towards EVs. I don't think that is an advantage here.

 

[StealthP3D]

Cheaper labor is always an advantage.

I was specifically addressing *plentiful* cheap labor. If the Mach-E is produced in as low of numbers as I suspect, there will be no need for a high volume of labor.

Mach E will start at $43.9k or $45k including destination fee.

If you believe Ford's timeline (and I don't), that won't happen until 2021! I'm thinking more like in 2022. And they will be nearly impossible to get your hands on one.

Over half of Americans don't give a rats ass about where their car is made and many Midwesterners and Southerners consider California an alien land and not their kinsmen.

I was addressing specifically purchasers of American marques (Ford and GM). A lot of those buyers actually *do* care whether the car is made with American labor. And the Mach-E will not be.

There is a significant percentage of Tesla owners that have never supercharged and for many the CCS Network will be good enough.

Show me a Tesla owner who has never Supercharged, and I'll show you a Tesla owner who has never taken a road trip in it!

Some people simply trust Ford more than Tesla. And have much higher degree of confidence that Ford will be around in 10 years. Plus, you can get the MachE serviced or repaired at any of 2100 Mace E certified Ford dealers vs 100 or so Tesla service centers and their mobile techs.

I've owned a Ford for the last 10 years. I also own 2 Tesla. Trust me, the two Tesla's are far less time consuming and cheaper to keep serviced than the one Ford. And as I detailed yesterday, Ford Service has trouble changing the oil in their own vehicles. Sure, some people might believe the opposite. They might be the same people who think mankind has never set foot on the moon.

In the ICE age the best most reliable car did not have 100% market share. At most OEMs had 10% market share globally. BEV age will be similar if not necessarily identical.

You really need to go back to the Model T which was disrupting the horse and carriage for a good comparison. And, yes, the Model T did have 61% market share and it grew that market share from 9% to 61% in only 12 years. Things happen much faster now with information travelling at the speed of light.

 

[jerry33]

I've owned a Ford for the last 10 years. I also own 2 Tesla. Trust me, the two Tesla's are far less time consuming and cheaper to keep serviced than the one Ford. And as I detailed yesterday, Ford Service has trouble changing the oil in their own vehicles. Sure, some people might believe the opposite. They might be the same people who think mankind has never set foot on the moon.

Toyota has the same oil change problem. I solved it by bringing my own measured amount of oil.

 

[ggr]

You don't need a foot-operated tailgate. With all the neural net smarts, you could just make a gesture that the camera recognizes to open the tailgate.

It's hard to gesture when your hands are full. On the other hand, phone proximity + facial recognition + a bit of training of the AI to know when your hands are full = magic.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Someone mentioned advertisers, but also subscribers would have a hard time with the Model 3 winning over the new Corvette. The mid-engined Corvette has been decades in coming and is more important to the Motor Trend community than a Tesla.

It will be the Corvette thats COTY.

 

[EVNow]

Mache E is rear wheel drive/ all wheel drive BEV specific performance/luxury with a proper frunk platform. The two could not be further apart.

Cadillac ELR ?

 

[EinSV]

I was specifically addressing *plentiful* cheap labor. If the Mach-E is produced in as low of numbers as I suspect, there will be no need for a high volume of labor.

Also, it's a mistake to look at this through the lens of a mature industry like ICE manufacturing.

Tesla chose to locate GF4 in Germany, where labor rates are higher, instead of somewhere in Eastern Europe with lower labor rates. Why? One reason is so that it could attract engineering talent, who will benefit from proximity to the factory as they create -- alongside colleagues in Shanghai and Northern California -- the next generation of machines that build the machine.

Tesla has only operated one mass EV production facility (Model 3 at Fremont), is in the pre-production stage for the second (Shanghai) and is starting to build out the third (Model Y).

In only 1 product generation (Model 3-->Y) Tesla expects to reduce capex by 50%/vehicle and operating costs are also falling fast. It is critical to continue rapidly reducing capex and operating costs in the new field of mass producing electric cars, and Elon clearly believes having engineers close to production will help speed progress. Locating plants in locations where labor is cheap but it may be hard to recruit top-flight engineers may not optimize long-term cost reductions.

 

[AudubonB]

Haven't seen any such discussion re this:

The early portion of last night's Mach E reveal showed a (groaningly fake) set of Ford techs and drivers "discovering" an electric Mustang. It was painfully obvious that rear row middle-seater, despite her small frame, was utterly crushed by her seatmates.

Has anyone either the specific rear seat dimensions, and/or testimony as to how roomy the Model 3 rear seat is/isn't? We've experience only in our Models S & X.

 

[Thekiwi]

Also, it's a mistake to look at this through the lens of a mature industry like ICE manufacturing.

Tesla chose to locate GF4 in Germany, where labor rates are higher, instead of somewhere in Eastern Europe with lower labor rates. Why? One reason is so that it could attract engineering talent, who will benefit from proximity to the factory as they create -- alongside colleagues in Shanghai and Northern California -- the next generation of machines that build the machine.

Tesla has only operated one mass EV production facility (Model 3 at Fremont), is in the pre-production stage for the second (Shanghai) and is starting to build out the third (Model Y).

In only 1 product generation (Model 3-->Y) Tesla expects to reduce capex by 50%/vehicle and operating costs are also falling fast. It is critical to continue rapidly reducing capex and operating costs in the new field of mass producing electric cars, and Elon clearly believes having engineers close to production will help speed progress. Locating plants in locations where labor is cheap but it may be hard to recruit top-flight engineers may not optimize long-term cost reductions.

Tesla also likely chose Germany because it is a large market for premium cars that hasn’t yet embraced Tesla in large numbers. That attitude probably changed somewhat last week.

 

[wipster]

To me it's obvious Model 3 will win tonight.

While I hope so, I think the mid-engine Vette stands a pretty big chance...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Why would anyone buy the Ford when they can get a high quality Made in America EV for less. Unfortunately, it's not going to be a big seller. And Ford doesn't seem to be in a big hurry to release their electric F-150 either. It's all just show and a way for them to dip their toes in the EV waters. That's not a successful strategy.

LOL. I can easily see THAT conversation happening:

“I’m not getting one of them foreign “Teslas”. I’m getting a made-in-America Mach-E!”

“Uh, Tesla is made in America.”

“Oh”

“And the Mach-E is made in Mexico”

“Oh”.

 

[Fred42]

Haven't seen any such discussion re this:

The early portion of last night's Mach E reveal showed a (groaningly fake) set of Ford techs and drivers "discovering" an electric Mustang. It was painfully obvious that rear row middle-seater, despite her small frame, was utterly crushed by her seatmates.

Has anyone either the specific rear seat dimensions, and/or testimony as to how roomy the Model 3 rear seat is/isn't? We've experience only in our Models S & X.

I don't have an answer but I haven't seen a post that points out the unavailability of a 3rd row seat for children in the Mach E. Previously some have said this availability in the Y is an important factor for some buyers.

 

[tinm]

I saw a full sized truck pulled over and completely engulfed in flames on 95 yesterday.

OT but speaking of I-95 car fires:

[cue eerie music]
Years ago, prolly around 1984, when I worked in Maryland, I saw not one, not two, but a whole motorcade of multiple burnt-out vehicles -- stretch limos and what looked like the remains of police interceptor cars in front and behind, along the side of I-95. First thing I thought was, geez, presidential motorcade taken out?

The fire had long been burned out. The blackened shells of the vehicles were just sitting there in a line, along the left shoulder of southbound I-95 (just south of the Hwy 32 exit for the National Security Agency, I might add) between Baltimore and DC.

I looked in the newspapers, I tuned into radio/TV stations for news, nothing. Never to this day learned what that was.

 

[Prunesquallor]

It was painfully obvious that rear row middle-seater, despite her small frame, was utterly crushed by her seatmates.

LOL. She also thought she was going to be driving.

 

[dww12]

Someone mentioned advertisers, but also subscribers would have a hard time with the Model 3 winning over the new Corvette. The mid-engined Corvette has been decades in coming and is more important to the Motor Trend community than a Tesla.

Well Model 3 has this win. This is 1 year after the P3 was available.

 

[Joe F]

It's hard to gesture when your hands are full. On the other hand, phone proximity + facial recognition + a bit of training of the AI to know when your hands are full = magic.

I can use my Apple Watch and voice command to open my MS trunk. Even More Magical. The Tesla Remote app makes it possible.

 

[TNEVol]

The fuel truck fire? Nasty stuff. Should be outlawed on our roads.

My truck a few weeks ago.



Last known driver!

 

[kengchang]

Saw on Twitter that Tesla China filed application for Model 3's approval for sale

 

[Joe F]

My truck a few weeks ago.
View attachment 478459

View attachment 478467
Last known driver!

Wow. Sucks to be him. Hope he had insurance!