Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[sparcs]

I am aware of that yeah. My opinion is as such in spite of this wording.

It just doesn't make any sense for Tesla to do this unless people pay the 7000$ today, but not for a 100$ refundable reservation. I could see a lower level manager having signed off on this wording without higher level approval. I'm skeptical for now until Elon personally confirms it on Twitter or during a conference call.

It makes a lot of sense to do this to launch a new product. The cost of FSD is all profit, even if they sell it at $1k or $50k for a certain limited number of vehicles. Eventually FSD cost will rise, so this is definitely limited. That's only assuming that Tesla doesn't increase the deposit size at some point in the future (and I expect an increase).

 

[ZeApelido]

Unbelievable, free SNL Cybertruck advertising

 

[Artful Dodger]

Using a different angle (I couldn't resist), if we assume that the Plaid powertrain is similar to the Roadster 2.0, battery would be 200KWh. So 500 vs 620 miles for a much bigger vehicle... Not impossible if the weight is not much more than a Model X. With adapted tires and battery/powertrain weight reduction, the Cybertruck AWD may be doable with 100KWh pack.

Oh yes, this is the obvious move to leverage existing tech. Let's flesh out the Cybertruck Lineup:

• $40K CT RWD (CTR): late 2021 - Est'd 17% of Production
  • Model 3 powertrain from LR: (avail now)
    • single SRPM rear drive - GF1
      
    • 75 KWh bty pack - GF1
    • 325/250 mile range M3LR/CTR =
      
    • Est'd 1.30x energy consumption for CTR
• $50K CT AWD (CTA): late 2021 - Est'd 42% of Production
  • Raven powertrain from Model S/X: (avail now)
    • Performance AC induction rear drive - Fremont
      
    • Model 3 SRPM front drive - GF1
      
    • 100 KWh pack built with 18650s - Fremont+Japan
      
    • 375/300 mile range RS/CTA =
      
    • Est'd 1.25x energy consumption for CTA
• $70K CT Tri-Motor (CT3): late 2022- Est'd 41% of Production
  • PLAID powertrain from Model S/X/R2: (avail Summer 2020)
    • 2x Model 3 SRPMs w. dual drive rear - GF1
      
    • Model 3 SRPM front drive - GF1
      
    • 200 KWh pack built with 'Maxcells' - t.b.d. (Summer 2020)
      
    • 620/500 mile range R2/CT3 =
      
    • Est'd 1.24x energy consumption for CT3

See how nicely the announced ranges for the three different Cybertruck variants align with these existing powertrains? Let's spell it out more compactly:

• Model LR RWD 1.3x range of Cybertruck RWD
• Model S RAVEN 1.25x range of Cybertruck AWD
• Roadster 2 PLAID: 1.24x range of Cybertruck TRI

Now, making these assumptions, we can estimate Cybertruck energy consumption per variant:

• Cybertruck RWD:300 Wh/mi <= Ed. Note: That's 100 MPGe in a TRUCK!
  
• Cybertruck AWD: 333 Wh/mi
  
• Cybertruck TRI: 400 Wh/mi

Note that CT/Tri-motor consumption rating is slightly high. I think its likely CT/Tri has either 600 miles of range (assume empty, same eff. as CT/AWD) or that it only needs a 150 KWh bty to achieve 500 miles range. Or perhaps Telsa wants to give you 500 real world miles of range while towing, or off-road racing, or rolling a big damn MegaAmp (pumpin' out the jams like @SpaceCash)

So I think this is close to Tesla's plan for their 3 Cybertruck variants:

1. it leverages existing technogy and production facilities to speed product launch
2. it minimizes R&D expense by reusing existing powertrains
3. it minimize CapEx by spreading major components across existing production lines
4. it defers the most complicated variant by 1 year to allow completion of already in-progress R&D efforts (Plaid powertrain), again minimizing new CapEx

In summary, I think this is the way Tesla doubles their TAM (total addressable market) esp. within the U.S. with virtually ZERO NEW CapEx. Their major remaining engineering expense will be learning how to mass produce vehicles bodies in Stainless Steel.

Now if only there was some friendly company will aligned goals with which Tesla could partner to share those expenses and accumulated engineering know how...

If only... /S

Cheers!

P.S. Who wants to estimate the weight of the 3 Cybertruck variants, given their target 0-60 times from the reveal, and the known values for acceleration and weight achieved by the existing Tesla models on which those Cybertrucks variants are based?

Bonus Points: How quick will Cybertruck be on Mars (0-60 mph)?

 

[JBRR]

XY design..

https://x.com/x

Incremental sheet forming - Wikipedia

 

[mongo]

• Cybertruck RWD: 300 Wh/mi
• Cybertruck AWD: 333 Wh/mi
• Cybertruck PLAID: 400 Wh/mi

I can't see the plaid drivetrain causing a 20% increase in Wh/mile over AWD. That would put the motors in the sub 80% efficiency range.

Edit: Also, plaid may have induction front motor for efficiency.

 

[JBRR]

Best discussion on Cybertruck by truck guys! (They love it) : teslamotors

 

[BioSehnsucht]

I can't see the plaid drivetrain causing a 20% increase in Wh/mile over AWD. That would put the motors in the sub 80% efficiency range.

Edit: Also, plaid may have induction front motor for efficiency.

more mass (batteries as well as motors) and having one more always-on motor might get you there, but I think most of it will be the battery mass.

 

[ZeApelido]

XY design..

https://x.com/x

Incremental sheet forming - Wikipedia

Amazing hint Musk gave then with the Y on x.com.

Like an inside joke.

 

[SunCatcher]

black oxide option.

Elon Musk on Twitter

All those flat surfaces give the potential for ART. As in railroad boxcar graffiti art. Canvas! TRUCK TATTOOS ANYONE?

Now we're talking!

 

[jhm]

People are warming up to the Cybertruck. The market was pretty sour on Tesla Friday. But I am thinking that investors too will warn up to the Cybertruck and appreciate the opportunity it presents for Tesla. I'm expecting the stock price to start a gradual ascent on Monday.

 

[Foghat]

People are warming up to the Cybertruck. The market was pretty sour on Tesla Friday. But I am thinking that investors too will warn up to the Cybertruck and appreciate the opportunity it presents for Tesla. I'm expecting the stock price to start a gradual ascent on Monday.

It seems like the same scenario I’ve seen over and over again with Tesla and the legacy financial media. YouTubers are trending and getting millions of views and hundreds of thousands of likes for positive reviews of the Cybertruck right now while legacy media gets a fraction of that reaction from its audience and saying Cybertruck windows suck and the truck is niche.

It’s legacy media versus independent YouTube stars just like it has been for years with Tesla and the overwhelming interest and positive response is coming through the YouTube audience and we know the prior results on sales that has seemingly brought compared to legacy traction.

Once again, Cybertruck youtube influencer reaction is supporting the evidence that legacy has limited influence or audience among consumers.

With such lack of viability, it makes you wonder how they keep getting finance to run their operations or how marketing departments think they are getting real value out of ad buys... I think there can’t be much more runway for this legacy bubble to continue the masquerade as a sustainable business.

 

[MichaelP90DL]

All those flat surfaces give the potential for ART. As in railroad boxcar graffiti art. Canvas! TRUCK TATTOOS ANYONE?

Now we're talking!

View attachment 480650

Oh my god, that is so totally brilliant!

 

[Beltsbear]

I've never had a truck. Never wanted a truck.

View attachment 480628

That is 188,000 or so higher then my number.

 

[MP3Mike]

For those wondering the RN numbers for Cybertruck are not sequential. Or at least not across trim levels.

Reserved an AWD-FSD ~4 hours ago: RN112933xxx
Reserved a RWD-FSD ~4 minutes ago: RN112927xxx

So maybe the 5th digit is a trim level indicator? Or the numbers are just completely random.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since it is Saturday night (here), I thought I would point to a new, potentially interesting advantage of the Cybertruck:

Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter

Lol, the F-117 Nighthawk was low-radar observable in part because it was covered with RADAR Absorbent Materials (RAM).

Cybertruck is constructed of RADAR Reflective Materials (AF).

Its gonna lite up the po-po like a Christmas tree...

Cheers!

 

[DragonWatch]

My dentist placed a $1K reservation for a Model 3, way back when ~ still cannot make up the mind ~ even with a test drive in our X.

A lot has happened, if you are focused on Cyber things around you.

Ford Just showed its new EV. It is good that someone has finally whipped the grease off their hands. Someone that cannot think outside the box might just jump at the Ford option(s). I say good.

Recent article said BMW resales were down thanks to the Model 3. Good

The Model Y is about to hit the streets

I record all TV shows just so I can speed past the commercials ~ it is really funny to get chewed out by the GrandPups (grand kids) because they want to see/hear them. While in Hawai’i the last two weeks I was forced to actually watch/listen to the stupidity/commercials. Bottom line ~ almost every fossil fuel commercial touted a $3K to $5K price reduction! Back in the seventies the automakers were jacking the price up $350 to $450 a year and the $3K car market disappeared. If Fossil Fuel dust bunnies are reducing their prices by large numbers, and EV sales across the board are slowing down a bit ~ there is something else slowing the entire auto market down.

Remember the Model X unavailing was slow to catch on too.

Now that I have two Tesla Powerwall’s; everyone will try to one up me If you live in the California fire district, you might just want a Tesla Roof and half dozen Powerwall’s for them rolling brownouts.

Trust me, I am not the guy to listed to, but I think there is movement a foot in the green direction.

 

[MXWing]

Took me a few hours but same.

 

[hoang51]

People are warming up to the Cybertruck. The market was pretty sour on Tesla Friday. But I am thinking that investors too will warn up to the Cybertruck and appreciate the opportunity it presents for Tesla. I'm expecting the stock price to start a gradual ascent on Monday.

I also think TSLA will recover some loss from Friday after the reservation numbers were released by Elon. Friday was brutal. I'll probably re-buy some shares this Monday.

 

[Buckminster]

Posts are 95+% Cybertruck on this thread. Good luck with that on Monday morning mods!

 

[sparcs]

All those flat surfaces give the potential for ART. As in railroad boxcar graffiti art. Canvas! TRUCK TATTOOS ANYONE?

Now we're talking!

Pickup trucks are all about customization. It's a flat blank slate to put your unique signature on with a wrap. Especially compared to the ugly legacy pickups. Military themes, colors, just endless design possibilities and the cybertruck will show that wrap off well.

Even businesses will want it for rolling advertisement of your business with that easy wrap. It's a statement piece to get people to look at who owns it...