Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

neroden on Disqus:

Going Back To The Future: What It’s Like Riding In Tesla’s New Cybertruck

neroden Clara Smith a day ago
It is actually quite non functional for most commercial,pickup truck applications. Bed is too short, it is hard to put toppers on, it is expensive to put your logo and website and phjone number on.


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neroden Tom Capon a day ago
Tom,that does not surprise me. This vehicle is bad for every single pickup truck market segment. It is a fun minivan though.


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neroden PragmaticCitizen a day ago
The supply chain people are competent. The customer relations people are not competent. Neither is the software team. Tesla have very nasty weak points which will bite them in the ass before 2021.


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neroden HighZenHour a day ago
That is not a good reservation count for such a low deposit cost.


Don't do it neroden, stay in the light:

 

[AudubonB]

Posts are 95+% Cybertruck on this thread. Good luck with that on Monday morning mods!

tick Tick TICK

 

[kengchang]

neroden on Disqus:

6.5ft bed too short? What's the percentage of pick up truck having 8ft bed?

 

[LN1_Casey]

I also think TSLA will recover some loss from Friday after the reservation numbers were released by Elon. Friday was brutal. I'll probably re-buy some shares this Monday.

I think the SP will steadily increase until Wednesday, then drop down again on Friday as the MM try to push again for the max pain.

The market is closed for Thanksgiving, I'm assuming?

 

[MP3Mike]

I think the SP will steadily increase until Wednesday, then drop down again on Friday as the MM try to push again for the max pain.

The market is closed for Thanksgiving, I'm assuming?

Yes closed on Thursday, and closes 3 hours early, at 1 PM, on Friday.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Yeah, 146K was 7 hrs ago. Its more like 170K reservations for Cybertruck by now.

Not sure they are all ready to buy with so little skin in the game. However, I don't think people would cough up $100 if they knew they wouldn't buy it. So these are all potential sales.

Myself, if the deposit were $1K or more, I'd probably wait and see how $TSLA does over the next year, then buy one. I also want to check out the Y, but it doesn't seem utility enough for me.

So I adjusted my original order to add FSD. That's worth it right there. They confirmed with a file that wouldn't open though.

 

[Buckminster]

How many Cybertruck buyers are going to upgrade?

Some will buy the dual motor and then trade in for the tri motor a year or two later.

Others will be going crazy with the options:
Colours, camper, trailer, cyberquad and more to come.

 

[NicoV]

Lol, the F-117 Nighthawk was low-radar observable in part because it was covered with RADAR Absorbent Materials (RAM).

Cybertruck is constructed of RADAR Reflective Materials (AF).

Its gonna lite up the po-po like a Christmas tree...

Cheers!

Quick, time to start a company that sells RAM wraps!

 

[Mad@gascar]

Since the Cybertruck lacks paint, the reliability score on Consumer Reports would be through the roof! At least 110/100

Are you kidding me? Tomorrow's Consumer Reports headline: "Cybertruck not recommended: Paint so thin you can see the bare metal!"

 

[Dutchie]

All those flat surfaces give the potential for ART. As in railroad boxcar graffiti art. Canvas! TRUCK TATTOOS ANYONE?

Now we're talking!

View attachment 480650

I guess one can easily wrap it yourself with all these flat surfaces.

 

[SpaceCash]

Hmmm, what's that hanging from the ceiling?

wait holy sugar could that be the conventional?? Nice spot

I hope they never produce that

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't know if they're sequential. They coordinated timing and were still 119 places apart.

Let's say they orders differed by a minute (could @Lycanthrope and @LN1_Casey confirm max variance between order timing?), that would mean orders would still be going up by 7k per hour (168k per day), which is too much.

I wonder if there is a gap in the order numbers, e.g. each order number is three higher than the last. Tesla could have also just said that the next order number is the previous order plus a random number between 1 and 5, or something like that to obfuscate the real interest.

If we saw a list of sequential order numbers I think the sequential theory would be easier to believe.

I pressed the order confirm exactly on the stroke of 10:45 - going by my Apple Watch, which I believe is rather accurate

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't know if they're sequential. They coordinated timing and were still 119 places apart.

Let's say they orders differed by a minute (could @Lycanthrope and @LN1_Casey confirm max variance between order timing?), that would mean orders would still be going up by 7k per hour (168k per day), which is too much.

I wonder if there is a gap in the order numbers, e.g. each order number is three higher than the last. Tesla could have also just said that the next order number is the previous order plus a random number between 1 and 5, or something like that to obfuscate the real interest.

If we saw a list of sequential order numbers I think the sequential theory would be easier to believe.

Maybe someone here with more free time than me could setup a shared Google spreadsheet and we can start populating it with our order times and RN's - this would very quickly give an indication of any contiguity, no?

 

[Buckminster]

Just updated this thread following the reveal:
Dry powder / milestones

Two things came to mind:

1. I added a line for Munro's Cybertruck cost estimate - so looking forward to that!
2. End of 21/22 is a long way off - so much happening between now and then - takes your breath away. I am finding it hard to believe that the RWD and AWD variants will use the existing battery. Could the year long wait be for another reason:?

• New motor design?
• Double stack module design or production ramp following roadster intro?
• Side benefit - forces some buyers to make two purchases. Dual motor then upgrade to tri?

 

[Fact Checking]

Lol, the F-117 Nighthawk was low-radar observable in part because it was covered with RADAR Absorbent Materials (RAM).

Cybertruck is constructed of RADAR Reflective Materials (AF).

Its gonna lite up the po-po like a Christmas tree...

Cheers!

While it is true that the F-117 was covered with radar absorbing paint (a metallic rubber compound AFAIK), the sharp angles and flat surfaces were also reflecting away radar pulses that made it through the radar absorbing paint.

Flat, polished metal surfaces will mirror photons that have a wavelength smaller than the surface, like they do in visible wavelengths:

reducing the radar signature.

Most airplanes have round surfaces facing the airstream:

Those round, flat metallic surfaces of the wings and nose of commercial aircraft will reflect radar pulses right back at the radar station or attacking/defending aircraft that is sending them.

The F-117 reflects most of these photons up or down, due to the flat mirror effect:

A third radar signature concern for stealth aircraft is "edge diffraction" of the trailing/flap side of the wing (cm wavelength radar photons can only be reflected imperfectly and their wave nature creates diffraction), which the F-117 solved via the characteristic zig-zag pattern:

So with all that in mind, here's my estimate of the Cybertruck's radar signature:

• Flat angled nose and hood will reflect away radar and reduce radar signature.
• Sharp edges perpendicular to the airflow will increase forward radar signature.

TLDR: While I'd expect the Cybertuck have a lower radar signature than similarly sized conventional trucks, the SpaceX Options Package or the Aquatic Options Package will be essential to reliably ... skip over radar traps.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I pressed the order confirm exactly on the stroke of 10:45 - going by my Apple Watch, which I believe is rather accurate

I was waiting for 45 minute mark, but I was reading the truck description, so maybe 45 minute and 10-15 second for myself. Edit: I'm also registered in the states, technically, but I don't know if that mattered.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I was waiting for 45 minute mark, but I was reading the truck description, so maybe 45 minute and 10-15 second for myself. Edit: I'm also registered in the states, technically, but I don't know if that mattered.

Thanks to both of you for replying. I think that reduces the timing difference down to a max of 30 seconds even allowing for differences in internet latency and fee processing times.

With that kind of variance we would have been looking at a reservation rate of c.14k per hour. Which is definitely too high. However I don't think too much of a conclusion could be drawn as there is likely natural fluctuations in reservation frequency when measuring over such a short time horizon.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Quick, time to start a company that sells RAM wraps!

Pifft!

radar absorbing material, radar absorbing material Suppliers and Manufacturers at Alibaba.com

Cheers!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Thanks to both of you for replying. I think that reduces the timing difference down to a max of 30 seconds even allowing for differences in internet latency and fee processing times.

With that kind of variance we would have been looking at a reservation rate of c.14k per hour. Which is definitely too high. However I don't think too much of a conclusion could be drawn as there is likely natural fluctuations in reservation frequency when measuring over such a short time horizon.

It probably could have been a better indicator if there was more than just two of us timing it out. Like 4 or 5 would have been ideal.

 

[Lessmog]

Hummer

Hummer was a Bummer,
but People are Dummer

..just saying. Cheers!!

Around here, Hummer means Lobster (an important catch in season).
Which also has an exoskeleton! The big top part of which is called Carapace and must be a certain size for the catch to be legal. Cyber Car-a-pax, seats six

Also just saying.