Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

How about this as a rationalization? You are locking in the $7000 FSD price. If they do succeed with FSD in the next few years, the price can dramatically increase. It’s like a $100 call option for the possibility that the vehicle will be worth more with full self driving

I highly doubt that a 100$ reservation will actually lock in FSD at 7000$ price. It's not an order like the Model Y.

Maybe if FSD only costs 8k or 9k by then, or if they eventually separate a personal FSD license from a commercial FSD license it might work like this. But I cannot imagine that a 100$ reservation will lock in FSD price at 7000$ if it costs 20k, 30k, or more in a few years.

 

[Intl Professor]

In one of the ridealong videos some guy said it was several inches of space above his head when sitting in the back. So there might be room for a smaller cyber too.

He said he was 6'4" too!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Anti-Tesla trolls are hilarious. An exchange with a guy on Youtube:


j Bjez2 hours ago
People who would buy the cyber truck, aren't or was never a truck guy


rickdc32 hours ago
Or for anyone that wants a truck for only $39,000 that doesn't rust, doesn't dent, doesn't scratch, will last a million miles, and only costs $2/day to drive 60 miles with basically no maintenance costs other than tires. Seems to me that only people that are really bad at math and don't care about money will buy anything else.


j Bjez1 hour ago (edited)
@rickdc3 and isn't that the point of owning a truck for it to get scratches and other exterior damages IF doing heavy duty labor, and if you don't want to man up to the damages and other maintenance problems, well that your problem


rickdc31 second ago
@j Bjez You would rather have a truck that gets scratches and other damage from heavy duty labor, than one that doesn't? Do you buy a new truck and then bang it up the next day to make it look used? I'm trying to understand what you are saying, because it makes no sense.

Ok, intervention time. Friends don’t let friends argue in YouTube comments.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Also, a large charging station is being built in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Not for use by customers. I feel that the new Tesla is going to be built in Hurt, Virginia. Hurt is only a 3 !/2 hour train ride from Hampton Roads and I feel that this Tesla station is to charge the new TESLA cars or trucks and will be charged before being loaded onto ships. Have been studying on this for a long time.....Does anyone know if I am correct?

Is this a different location from the Service Center that's going in ?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'll vote $15K. Let's see if in the following years I'm correct

If you can plug it into your home solar/microgrid/powerwall array, and it has > 28KWh usable capacity on a 1M mile bty pack, who wouldn't park one of these in there garage for occasional vehicle trips (but mostly bread'n'butter V2H services)?

Come to think of it, thats what my sub-compact car mostly does all week right now (except for the V2H part).

$15K? I'm in.

 

[sparcs]

I highly doubt that a 100$ reservation will actually lock in FSD at 7000$ price. It's not an order like the Model Y.

Maybe if FSD only costs 8k or 9k by then, or if they eventually separate a personal FSD license from a commercial FSD license it might work like this. But I cannot imagine that a 100$ reservation will lock in FSD price at 7000$ if it costs 20k, 30k, or more in a few years.

It literally says this right on the order page: "Selecting Full-Self Driving today will secure your price as it increases in the future."

see for yourself: Design Your Cybertruck | Tesla

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cough cough. Would have been 150k if they didn’t get so ballsy

Yeah, 146K was 7 hrs ago. Its more like 170K reservations for Cybertruck by now.

 

[Intl Professor]

I don't know why, but when I picture my Cybertruck accelerating and rolling over stuff, I imagine a loud diesel engine sound! Make it stop!!!

That will be added to the Easter egg stuff, along with a loud fart adapter for the horn. In 1950 a friend of my Dad had a lovely green Caddy with air powered horn like a deep steamship whistle. Scared the sugar out of people.

Someone here calculated the triple motor would weigh over 3 tons. If so, what an added safety feature, except for those in the other car should they collide.

 

[Boomer19]

That will be added to the Easter egg stuff, along with a loud fart adapter for the horn. In 1950 a friend of my Dad had a lovely green Caddy with air powered horn like a deep steamship whistle. Scared the sugar out of people.

Someone here calculated the triple motor would weigh over 3 tons. If so, what an added safety feature, except for those in the other car should they collide.

or a locomotive whistle like the death mobile in animal house

 

[30seconds]

To me this is a real advance in manufacturing. The price / range and expected lifespan of this truck is way way beyond anything currently being produced.

I think people keep forgetting that Tesla’s primary mission is to transition the planet to sustainable energy as fast as possible. Elon referenced the need to take on the small truck segment at the start of the presentation (as did Grimes).

If this is much more simple to manufacture at scale than a conventional truck body then it really is form following function.

So what if they take this approach to an A class vehicle? SS exoskeleton, 300 mile range, seats 4, no frills? What do you think they could sell it for? $20,000? $15,000?

what if it was much easier to manufacturer? So a single GF could do 3 million / year?

Tesla is aiming to surpass Toyota & VW on a worldwide basis.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I have no need for a truck. Never did, never thought I would.

And, I don’t need a truck. Really, I don’t.

I don’t need a truck.
I don’t need a truck.
I don’t need a truck.
I don’t need a truck.
I don’t need a truck.

I’m going out for the night to clear my head.

Completely understandable. May I suggest a night out at the Opera?

HTH.

Cheers!

 

[izemize]

I find it hilarious that the Cybertruck is inciting civil war even among fellow Tesla owners. There's probably more vitriol and eating our own than from Ford/Chevy groups.

So when I get my Cybertruck I'm going to park really close to the driver side door of other Tesla's.

Those owners can:

1.) Summon their car out.
2.) Crawl through the passenger side.
3.) Ding their door trying to get into their cars.
4.) Buy their own invulnerable Cybertruck.

You seem to be a pleasant person to be around. I guess someone has to come up with the rolling coal addon. That way you can really showcase your hate!

 

[MichaelP90DL]

CNBC's buck pundit Jim Cramer announced on Friday that he thinks the Cybertruck is a "bit of a bust." This is my tweet to him of a few minutes ago (italics added):

@jimcramer I saw your bit on CNBC's Squawk on the Street about Tesla's Cybertruck. "A bit of bust"? 146,000 reservations in 24 hours after the reveal. The Ford Mustang Mach-E? 14,000 reservations by three days after its reveal. Doesn't sound like a Cybertruck bust to me.

 

[FrankSG]

It literally says this right on the order page: "Selecting Full-Self Driving today will secure your price as it increases in the future."

see for yourself: Design Your Cybertruck | Tesla

I am aware of that yeah. My opinion is as such in spite of this wording.

It just doesn't make any sense for Tesla to do this unless people pay the 7000$ today, but not for a 100$ refundable reservation. I could see a lower level manager having signed off on this wording without higher level approval. I'm skeptical for now until Elon personally confirms it on Twitter or during a conference call.

 

[kengchang]

I am aware of that yeah. My opinion is as such in spite of this wording.

It just doesn't make any sense for Tesla to do this unless people pay the 7000$ today, but not for a 100$ refundable reservation. I could see a lower level manager having signed off on this wording without higher level approval. I'm skeptical for now until Elon personally confirms it on Twitter or during a conference call.

Model Y is the same, why the doubt?

 

[sparcs]

I am aware of that yeah. My opinion is as such in spite of this wording.

It just doesn't make any sense for Tesla to do this unless people pay the 7000$ today, but not for a 100$ refundable reservation. I could see a lower level manager having signed off on this wording without higher level approval. I'm skeptical for now until Elon personally confirms it on Twitter or during a conference call.

It makes a lot of sense to do this to launch a new product. The cost of FSD is all profit, even if they sell it at $1k or $50k for a certain limited number of vehicles. Eventually FSD cost will rise, so this is definitely limited. That's only assuming that Tesla doesn't increase the deposit size at some point in the future (and I expect an increase).

 

[ZeApelido]

Unbelievable, free SNL Cybertruck advertising

 

[Artful Dodger]

Using a different angle (I couldn't resist), if we assume that the Plaid powertrain is similar to the Roadster 2.0, battery would be 200KWh. So 500 vs 620 miles for a much bigger vehicle... Not impossible if the weight is not much more than a Model X. With adapted tires and battery/powertrain weight reduction, the Cybertruck AWD may be doable with 100KWh pack.

Oh yes, this is the obvious move to leverage existing tech. Let's flesh out the Cybertruck Lineup:

• $40K CT RWD (CTR): late 2021 - Est'd 17% of Production
  • Model 3 powertrain from LR: (avail now)
    • single SRPM rear drive - GF1
      
    • 75 KWh bty pack - GF1
    • 325/250 mile range M3LR/CTR =
      
    • Est'd 1.30x energy consumption for CTR
• $50K CT AWD (CTA): late 2021 - Est'd 42% of Production
  • Raven powertrain from Model S/X: (avail now)
    • Performance AC induction rear drive - Fremont
      
    • Model 3 SRPM front drive - GF1
      
    • 100 KWh pack built with 18650s - Fremont+Japan
      
    • 375/300 mile range RS/CTA =
      
    • Est'd 1.25x energy consumption for CTA
• $70K CT Tri-Motor (CT3): late 2022- Est'd 41% of Production
  • PLAID powertrain from Model S/X/R2: (avail Summer 2020)
    • 2x Model 3 SRPMs w. dual drive rear - GF1
      
    • Model 3 SRPM front drive - GF1
      
    • 200 KWh pack built with 'Maxcells' - t.b.d. (Summer 2020)
      
    • 620/500 mile range R2/CT3 =
      
    • Est'd 1.24x energy consumption for CT3

See how nicely the announced ranges for the three different Cybertruck variants align with these existing powertrains? Let's spell it out more compactly:

• Model LR RWD 1.3x range of Cybertruck RWD
• Model S RAVEN 1.25x range of Cybertruck AWD
• Roadster 2 PLAID: 1.24x range of Cybertruck TRI

Now, making these assumptions, we can estimate Cybertruck energy consumption per variant:

• Cybertruck RWD:300 Wh/mi <= Ed. Note: That's 100 MPGe in a TRUCK!
  
• Cybertruck AWD: 333 Wh/mi
  
• Cybertruck TRI: 400 Wh/mi

Note that CT/Tri-motor consumption rating is slightly high. I think its likely CT/Tri has either 600 miles of range (assume empty, same eff. as CT/AWD) or that it only needs a 150 KWh bty to achieve 500 miles range. Or perhaps Telsa wants to give you 500 real world miles of range while towing, or off-road racing, or rolling a big damn MegaAmp (pumpin' out the jams like @SpaceCash)

So I think this is close to Tesla's plan for their 3 Cybertruck variants:

1. it leverages existing technogy and production facilities to speed product launch
2. it minimizes R&D expense by reusing existing powertrains
3. it minimize CapEx by spreading major components across existing production lines
4. it defers the most complicated variant by 1 year to allow completion of already in-progress R&D efforts (Plaid powertrain), again minimizing new CapEx

In summary, I think this is the way Tesla doubles their TAM (total addressable market) esp. within the U.S. with virtually ZERO NEW CapEx. Their major remaining engineering expense will be learning how to mass produce vehicles bodies in Stainless Steel.

Now if only there was some friendly company will aligned goals with which Tesla could partner to share those expenses and accumulated engineering know how...

If only... /S

Cheers!

P.S. Who wants to estimate the weight of the 3 Cybertruck variants, given their target 0-60 times from the reveal, and the known values for acceleration and weight achieved by the existing Tesla models on which those Cybertrucks variants are based?

Bonus Points: How quick will Cybertruck be on Mars (0-60 mph)?

 

[JBRR]

XY design..

https://x.com/x

Incremental sheet forming - Wikipedia

 

[mongo]

• Cybertruck RWD: 300 Wh/mi
• Cybertruck AWD: 333 Wh/mi
• Cybertruck PLAID: 400 Wh/mi

I can't see the plaid drivetrain causing a 20% increase in Wh/mile over AWD. That would put the motors in the sub 80% efficiency range.

Edit: Also, plaid may have induction front motor for efficiency.