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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

printf42

Active Member
Sep 29, 2018
1,298
13,329
CA
Police Cybertruck:

EKJrXThU8AIOXaS
Tesla just produced the MEME template of the year, maybe next year too.
 

mblakele

beep! beep! 💉
Mar 7, 2016
1,774
5,827
SF Bay Area
The RNs can be sequential, and yet not sequential enough to infer rates from a couple of samples. I'll try to explain.

The reservation numbers may come from a single database sequence, but buffered across something like 100 front-end servers. Each server fetches something like 100 numbers at a time, as needed, and incoming requests are load-balanced. As each frontend server runs low on numbers, it gets another block of 100 or so from the database. That's a common design, because it's easier on the database, and the database is usually the performance bottleneck in these situations. I chose 100 arbitrarily: actual numbers will vary.

With a design like that, at any given moment you'll have thousands of reservation numbers buffered in those front-end servers. The range of numbers won't necessarily be contiguous: depending on various circumstances, min and max might differ by tens of thousands or more. Also we've been hearing about payment failures: those and other errors might leave holes in the sequence.

TL;DR: two reservations at the same time might get numbers that are within a few thousand, but we probably can't infer rates from any single observation. Instead we'd need many samples to observe a trend — like what we see from Alter Viggo on twitter.
 

dgodfrey

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 27, 2016
471
4,390
Niskayuna, NY
So, I'm going to be discussing the Cybertruck on the radio tomorrow... :)
I suppose if anyone on this forum would be an ideal candidate as poster child for the Cybertruck, based on the descriptions of your conditions, it would be you. Is there a Cybertruck in the cards down the road to replace your yet to be delivered Model 3?
 
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Intl Professor

Active Member
May 17, 2013
3,292
11,330
California
I fully expected a fold-up lip that would be flipped up after you drop the tailgate. Assuming that the tailgate is at least 18" tall, that would equate to an 8' bed. The flipped up portion may only be 16" tall as it nests inside the 18"+ tall tailgate and act like the flip up plastic thingy on printers that keep your paper from falling off. Maybe the telescoping ramp can be multi-purpose.

I'm really dreading tomorrow when we all have to move over to the Cybertruck only thread. It will be crickets here.

Keep it about investing. All will be well, eyes can shift focus, soon it will be automatic. How much in this post is about investing yet even I who normally cares less about such details of design might gander where posts like this will be? Otherwise I would miss the post about magnetic wipers which is a cool innovation and effective (I dunno) only on flat windshields, another sword in Ford's back.
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Supporting Member
Dec 2, 2017
5,102
40,582
A Coast
Keep it about investing. All will be well, eyes can shift focus, soon it will be automatic. How much in this post is about investing yet even I who normally cares less about such details of design might gander where posts like this will be? Otherwise I would miss the post about magnetic wipers which is a cool innovation and effective (I dunno) only on flat windshields, another sword in Ford's back.
Disagree just to say the sword is smack dab in the front.

Much warning was given...they chose to drag their heels.
 

Beltsbear

Active Member
Jan 1, 2016
1,054
5,982
Dc
Police Cybertruck:

EKJrXThU8AIOXaS
Tesla can remake the 'good news, bad news' ad from a decade or so ago. The first page (in a car mag of course) was, 'the good news', showing a hot dodge (I think) with low zero to 60 times. The next page was the same car decked out in police livery titled 'the bad news'.
 

SO16

Active Member
Feb 25, 2016
3,134
9,797
MI
At least in my own mind, I have thought a lot about this. The efficient method (short of just paying for delivery) is to use a short (lighter) truck with good towing capacity. Then get a great trailer (for supplies and tools) that is 10' long and enclosed, tow it where you need it and lock it up as best you can. Trailers are utility on steroids. Otherwise there are inefficiencies.

A friend bought a large and long bed truck. Everywhere he went he took everything with him -- the long bed, tools, materials, large fuel tanks etc. It was hard to park and noisy and cost $100 to fill the tanks. One day he went to the box store and forgot to lock something and had every power tool he owned stolen. Agreed, there are various ways to look at this (trailers get stolen too) but there are some compelling reasons that negate the need for a longer truck.

For years I worked in a very large efficient factory that ran 24 hrs and they moved a great deal of 16' foot product around. They always used a small maneuverable "tow motor" (really a very small electric tractor) to tow 4 wheeled trailers of product from place to place. It was the most efficient method.

To me the trailer is the answer that works best providing there is a reasonably secure place to store it or rent when you need it.


And if he has the CyberTruck, he’d have built in Sentry mode to catch the jerks stealing his tools.
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,708
6,913
Smögen
<snip>
I watched the video on tesla.com the next morning and it started growing on me.

Then I started thinking about the price. For the same $40k, why would I chose the SR+ model 3 vs. the base model Cybertruck? The truck has more interior room, more functionality (if needed), the only difference is the 3 will be more efficient with energy. Then I started thinking that the Cybertruck could easily replace the needs that our Pilot fulfills as our family car (with 2-3 large dogs) and we could upgrade my wife when the lease expires in 2022.
Heheh. This reminds me of an old skit on Svenska Ord with the late inimitable comedian / actor Gösta Ekman:
"Jag leasar min bil. Jag hyr min Lisa." (I lease my car. I rent my Lisa.) Quite the new thing in those days. :D
 

Intl Professor

Active Member
May 17, 2013
3,292
11,330
California
In tactical operations it’s assault and support, block and tackle and a whole lot of coordination of those units involved, nothing like what you see in the movies. Refueling happens at planned locations away from the “front line” and once an objective is secured, an appropriate supply node is established if determined necessary to achieve the next objective, whether tactical, operational, or strategic in nature.

Logistical support is the backbone of all military operations, friendly and foe. You can’t fight without beans, bullets, medical supplies, fuel, parts, maintenance, etc... It must be secure and available in a secure environment. It takes time to refuel a tank or truck as well. This is the same situation for the “enemy” as well.

So all military forces (including irregular) have techniques, tactics, and procedures to execute these operations. Extensive training, planning, and preparation occurs to execute these ttps.

To counter the opposition forces, whom all military forces believe require conventional fuel and conventional bullets and weaponry, aim significant planning and design to destroying or disrupting that conventional logistical support. If the bad guys can’t get gas/diesel they can’t move on land, air, or sea.

Now if you are planning to fight a force that is gas/diesel based, but the reality it’s primarily electric force which a completely different way of fighting and resupply, you find yourself at a significant disadvantage not only at a tactical level but on the scale of national security and strategy, strategic resource planning and otherwise.

Whole nation states and regions are defined by fossil fuel availability and utilization as a vital global economic resource. Complete grand strategies are build on the geopolitical importance of old and gas. It is almost unimaginable the impact of a non fossil fuel national economy and military force emerging in the future which is why impact of the acceleration electrifying transport has such widespread implications for the global economy and structure as we have known it.

That acceleration will only “gain momentum” as military advantage is seen thru electrification of the force, and starting with a vehicle like the Cybertruck and energy production and delivery tech such as solar and energy storage. (Not to mention spin off/synergistic applications from the development such as new weaponry of this at scale). The global competition to “get there first” (or an electrication “arms race”) would require a new “grand strategy” as well as national security policy to meet this new challenge before others do.

As Elon continues to announce further tech developments beyond current militiary capabilities or application, along with Tesla and spacex current scaling this new tech globally, there are real conversations happening.

It is only natural that we as investors/owners of the company explore the implications as Tesla could be at or near the center of rapidly developing bifurcation in strategic policy. The financial benefits as well as larger scale consequences.

Thinking about traditional wars, this is good news but may not be what we will experience in future. Cyber war is it. Look how successful Russia was in the last election, down to Manafort's leaking of poll data projections for the central/northern states plus Pennsylvania? 14,000 votes determined the election.

Also, what about EMP effects? But that may not be used since it is like poison gas and would affect attackers as well.
 
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kbM3

Active Member
May 22, 2017
1,927
10,189
Orlando
An earlier post I made, garnered a large number of disagrees. I was trying to illuminate the difference between the cyber truck, and the model Y. Can anyone explain why they disagree with this post? I understand Cybertruck being larger on the outside is a disadvantage, but I listed smaller exterior as one of the Y advantages in this post.

Is it that the 3 Model Y advantages far outweigh the 6 CT advantages presuming one doesn’t need a pickup? I would get that, but it seems strange as the whole reason anyone would pick a Model Y over a Model 3 is seating capacity, ride height or cargo. If those are the reasons to pick a CUV over a sports sedan, which is more efficient and better performing, why wouldn’t someone spend even LESS money to get even more of those things in the Cybertruck? Of course excluding Europeans where Cybertruck might be too large to work at all.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable
 

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