Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Green Pete]

wow

 

[Green Pete]

last one, pretty fascinating though:

 

[KarenRei]

I suppose if anyone on this forum would be an ideal candidate as poster child for the Cybertruck, based on the descriptions of your conditions, it would be you. Is there a Cybertruck in the cards down the road to replace your yet to be delivered Model 3?

Maybe in addition to

 

[EVNow]

@EVNow Can we stop with this RN numbers are sequential crap? They aren't.

6PM yesterday: RN112933xxx
4 hours later at 10PM: RN112927xxx

The number went backwards by 6247 in 4 hours. Maybe that many people cancelled their order and Tesla re-uses the numbers?

I'm always open to changing my opinion as facts change.

Where did you see the 10 PM RN ?

 

[Fact Checking]

I wish they had unveiled a version of the Cybertruck with a third row of seats and no bed at all. I just don't need or want a pickup but a large 3-row SUV with additional storage behind the third row (Suburban class) would be awesome.

I don't know if such a vehicle is plausible with the way the roof-line falls behind the passengers but I think if they could find a way to make it work they would have a lot of buyers.

With their steel folding production method many such variations can probably be implemented in software...

As @KarenRei correctly pointed it out stainless steel isn't for every vehicle form factor - but for those where it is an advantage (trucks, vans, taxis, minibuses) the flexibility will be amazing, as long as a number of physical constraints are maintained:

• Triangular top - this is a main load bearing structure and also air flow tapering requires shallow angles at the top.
• Nose to top angle has to be below a certain limit - which defines a minimum length for the vehicle: not enough internal cabin height otherwise.
• Simple styling: anything that doesn't fit into the Origami XY design style is out.
• All around skin: load has to be distributed and stiffness maintained.

I'm curious whether they'll try smaller and larger stainless steel vehicles. The stainless steel ATV is I think a silent suggestion that they might.

 

[LJS22]

And even for that he is criticized (by his usual detractor):
Dana Hull ‍ on Twitter

Lol there’s a couple really cool stories here with Cybertruck. One is that there is a guy out there trying something that nobody else has and is doing it with full conviction in an effort to advance the market.

The other story is Elon Musk and Tesla already won. The day that Ford announced an electric F-150 was the day that Elon and Tesla didn’t have to release a basic truck. The biggest segment in the US is going electric. It’s an incredible victory for Tesla

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm always open to changing my opinion as facts change.

Where did you see the 10 PM RN ?

They are both mine. (That is how I knew exactly how many numbers apart they were.)

 

[EVNow]

They are both mine. (That is how I knew exactly how many numbers apart they were.)

Then, how do you explain rest of the RNs and how close of a match that is to what Musk tweeted ?

Thousands of coincidences vs one anomaly ?

ps : 187k - 146k = 41k in 22 hours. So, ~2k/hour.

 

[knowitall]

MOAB? or even bigger

About time we used it.....lol

 

[printf42]

With their steel folding production method many such variations can probably be implemented in software...

As @KarenRei correctly pointed it out stainless steel isn't for every vehicle form factor - but for those where it is an advantage (trucks, vans, taxis, minibuses) the flexibility will be amazing, as long as a number of physical constraints are maintained:

• Triangular top - this is a main load bearing structure and also air flow tapering requires shallow angles at the top.
• Nose to top angle has to be below a certain limit - which defines a minimum length for the vehicle: not enough internal cabin height otherwise.
• Simple styling: anything that doesn't fit into the Origami XY design style is out.
• All around skin: load has to be distributed and stiffness maintained.

I'm curious whether they'll try smaller and larger stainless steel vehicles. The stainless steel ATV is I think a silent suggestion that they might.

Would be interesting to see a Cyber Roadster.

 

[Fact Checking]

Then, how do you explain rest of the RNs and how close of a match that is to what Musk tweeted ?

Thousands of coincidences vs one anomaly ?

ps : 187k - 146k = 41k in 22 hours. So, ~2k/hour.

Even that one "anomaly" is entirely consistent with the standard practice of segmenting payment processing per card issuer and currency region, which likely results in the batched issuance of order IDs. Once the batch is consumed they allocate another batch, etc. - without having a centralized bottleneck.

So Europe allocates a batch of 1,000 orders from the central sequence counter, the U.S. has one, GBP, CHF - all probably separated out - maybe even per country.

I think it's pretty clear from the two numbers Elon gave that the order IDs are statistically sequential.

 

[goinfraftw]

Just to compare Model S and Model 3 searches with Cybertruck and the company (same time period, worldwide instead of US). Link

 

[M3Rider]

Over 200k by opening bell Monday...

Dang, he definitely destroyed my theory they'd keep the number secret
Maybe the urge to prove his mockers are wrong was too strong.

 

[Fact Checking]

So 187,000 pre-orders mean that Tesla is going to earn a cybertuckload of money, right?

 

[MP3Mike]

Then, how do you explain rest of the RNs and how close of a match that is to what Musk tweeted ?

Thousands of coincidences vs one anomaly ?

ps : 187k - 146k = 41k in 22 hours. So, ~2k/hour.

Maybe they are issued randomly from blocks and the blocks get filled in. But they aren't sequential. And we have no idea how big a block is.

Even that one "anomaly" is entirely consistent with the standard practice of segmenting payment processing per card issuer and currency region, which likely results in the batched issuance of order IDs.

In my "anomaly" the currency region and card issuer were identical. So that isn't why the number went down by ~6k in 4 hours, even though it should have gone up by ~4k. (Assuming the orders are coming in consistently over time.) So we are off the "sequential" order by about 10k. (Maybe that is the size of a block?)

 

[Fact Checking]

Very interesting, Tesla will be making their own stainless steel:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."​

So after SpaceX foundry there's going to be a Tesla foundry too!

Might explain some of the CoGs reduction @KarenRei and @ReflexFunds were arguing about?

They'd avoid steel tariffs as well.

 

[Boomer19]

So 187,000 pre-orders mean that Tesla is going to earn a cybertuckload of money, right?

even the cybertruck would have a tough time pulling that load (of cash)

 

[Navin]

Will likely be premarket weakness to allow for MM to adjust option positions at market open. Planning on buying lots of shares pre market to take advantage of the sale sorta speak

 

[electracity]

With their steel folding production method many such variations can probably be implemented in software...

As @KarenRei correctly pointed it out stainless steel isn't for every vehicle form factor - but for those where it is an advantage (trucks, vans, taxis, minibuses) the flexibility will be amazing, as long as a number of physical constraints are maintained:

• Triangular top - this is a main load bearing structure and also air flow tapering requires shallow angles at the top.
• Nose to top angle has to be below a certain limit - which defines a minimum length for the vehicle: not enough internal cabin height otherwise.
• Simple styling: anything that doesn't fit into the Origami XY design style is out.
• All around skin: load has to be distributed and stiffness maintained.

I'm curious whether they'll try smaller and larger stainless steel vehicles. The stainless steel ATV is I think a silent suggestion that they might.

I don't get how the front and rear crush zones will work. I think this design is the equivalent of the first solar roof.

The vehicle shown isn't even legal and didn't even have cameras or side marker lighting. I doubt that the bed cover shown is waterproofing. The ramp was obviously not complete and would be problematic in a production vehicle.

I do think that Tesla can do well selling this sort of design. But what I saw is a "concept car". I think the primary purpose was to generate excitement and to accumulate unsatisfied demand. I do think Tesla will make the vehicle if they can, but they don't know if it is possible.

 

[Fact Checking]

In my "anomaly" the currency region and card issuer were identical. So that isn't why the number went down by ~6k in 4 hours, even though it should have gone up by ~4k. (Assuming the orders are coming in consistently over time.) So we are off the "sequential" order by about 10k. (Maybe that is the size of a block?)

Maybe they reallocated cancelled order numbers, or some of the slower rate countries release numbers back into the pool.

Or it's not sequential.