Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

If there had been a downgrade, it would have been covered by every ‘news’ outlet. An upgrade? No FUD, so doesn’t qualify.

Same with new analyst coverage - It's not news because it reflects positively on Tesla.

 

[sparcs]

just added some shares.

Seems like the concerns with the truck have not played out. I can't see it being the cause of any further drop at least based on any rational basis since it's two years away from production. Tesla has 2 years to make it better. Macros on the other hand are a whole different story. Might buy a little more if it drops even lower for those kinds of reasons.

 

[EVDRVN]

She’s going to be the coolest 80 year old on the street. What attracted her to the truck?

She likes different and the extra space as she is a factory sales rep and carries lots of samples and her trunk and back seat is usually full to the top. Also she now knows that range and charging is not an issue as many of her friends have an X, S or 3. She is more active than my 28 year old millennial neighbor and far less lazy and drives better as well. Hope fully she won't be trying to climb the front yard landscape for fun or over the top of LA drivers that "can't drive".

 

[humbaba]

Does anyone have a breakup of F150 (pickups as a whole) by class ? We can figure out the actual addressable class.

My guess is addressable market is very large (~ 75% of pickup trucks).

I like your question, but in digging around the best I could come up with is this:[1]

But even if we wanted to break truck sales reports out by weight or specific model, we couldn’t, because automakers don’t share their data at this level of detail.

You can get data that breaks it down by small, mid-size and full-size, but what we would need is the breakdown of full-size. Last year's third quarter full size sales amounted to around 600k units. I have no idea how many of those are half ton, but even if the vast majority were half ton then even 250k annually for the cybertruck it would be a large chunk of the market (trying to remember how many model Y was supposed to scale to). Not sure how fast they can or should try to scale production up.


1) The Real Numbers Behind The Truck Wars Of 2017

 

[Chickenlittle]

Re. serious truck people buying: I tried to sell the Cybertruck to my parents, but apparently Tesla will need to go up a truck class to get many ranchers and farmers. They need to be able to tow an 8k lb trailer with an 18k lb bulldozer on it. Shows how little I know about trucks, I thought the Cybertruck was a serious truck.

I don’t know what you mean by serious truck buyer. Is it one likely to turn reservation into a sale? I know most pickup drivers do not tow bulldozers with them. Most put lumber or suit cases in the bed or perhaps tools.

 

[humbaba]

Looking at truck information I saw a bit that puts an anecdotal number to the range loss from towing. I've often figured a reasonable estimate is to halve the range, and this suggests that it is around that, albeit anecdotally and in a different class of vehicle than anything Tesla sells. Nevertheless, for what its worth:

Over the past two years, the truck has returned an average of 11.6 mpg, which is down slightly from the 11.8 mpg we reported at the one-year mark. When empty, it's easy for the truck to return more than 20 mpg on the highway. When towing, mpg will vary greatly depending on the load size, weight and shape.

given that nearly 90% of the mileage was towing, despite the vagueness of "more than" that suggests a close to 2:1 ratio.

edit: this is why I think having at least 500 miles of range is the minimum for anything that is considered for use on long haul towing. Only the tri-motor cybertruck has that -- though it is phrased as a minimum. Anyone who is serious about hauling with cybertruck should hold out for it, IMO.

This 2017 GMC Sierra 3500 Diesel Towed for 22,000 of Its 24,750 Miles: How Has It Held Up? - PickupTrucks.com News

 

[Unpilot]

Seems kinda quiet in here.

On topic SP. Is flat as well...so maybe nothing to talk about?

 

[Buckminster]

Gosh, no problem catching up on the thread today - you guys got nothin to say on the CT huh....

 

[winfield100]

After more time for this to sink in, I'm growing more and more confident in my first impression that CyberTruck is Tesla's boldest move yet and has blown away all my expectations.

CyberTruck is a paradigm shift in:

• Vehicle production processes
• Vehicle structural design
• Vehicle aesthetics
• Vehicle materials
• Crash Safety
• Durability and toughness (almost certainly designed for 1 million miles with limited scratches or body repair work required)
• Capital efficiency (has removed all the most expensive parts of the production line)
• Production cost (likely huge savings relative to a traditional Pickup)
• Pickup functionality
• EV range

I do wonder how quickly the CyberTruck can be brought to market. The strong reservation count should give Elon confidence that CyberTruck is a hit and he should get fully behind mass production. I would guess 300-600k annual production capacity. The key reason for the CyberTruck design decisions and consequent aesthetics were to dramatically reduce production cost so it can be priced competitively with the cheapest F-150 and sell in huge volumes and actually make a difference to carbon emissions. I don't get how some people here can think Tesla designed this to be a niche product. Elon and Franz didn't just randomly decide to make a CyberPunk themed truck, they decided to make as cheap a Pickup truck as possible using first principles physics based engineering so as to sell in the highest possible volumes. The CyberPunk aesthetics were just a result of this cost optimisation.

I hope the mass production timeline can now be accelerated to early 2021. Lead times on the limited vehicle production equipment shouldn't be long, particularly if mostly made by Tesla. I think the limitation is likely how quickly Tesla can ramp up its in-house next generation battery chemistry/cells/pack. But if they can invest more to accelerate this, I think they should. After all, as Elon has said:

Elon: “If the schedule is long, it's wrong; if it's tight, it's right.”

Motortrend: "After all, as one of the Cybertruck's engineers whispered to me, "Like Elon says, 'It only takes nine months to make a baby."

I have been traveling for 4 days and discover over 1,000+ messages
Apologies if this mentioned anywhere else
Cyber truk has 100kW battery
That is ~7 powerwall s
7 powerwall s for $50,000!!!!
With wheels _and_ a ?240? V outlet
A mobile powerwall!!!
7 of them!!!

 

[mulder1231]

TSLA stock held down again, I’m sick and tired of this game!

The media is able to take control of the narrative again. In part helped by Elon’s tweet of no more product announcements for a while. It gives them opportunity to contrast with all other OEMs promising tens of new electric models...

 

[Zero CO2]

Watching NFL yesterday and caught this Audi e-tron add ... is it just me or are they listing all the reasons not to buy an EV perpetuating the the misinformation while advertising their new e-tron

I was initially happy to see BEV add... but upon further inspection this is just more FUD ... message just buy a "real" Audi EVs have too many issues

Audi e-tron TV Commercial, 'Not for You' Song by HOTEI [T1]

thoughts ?

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA stock held down again, I’m sick and tired of this game!

The media is able to take control of the narrative again. In part helped by Elon’s tweet of no more product announcements for a while. It gives them opportunity to contrast with all other OEMs promising tens of new electric models...

Reducing the amount of time between a product unveiling and its mass production cuts down on the potential for osborning.

However, Elon did indicate there will be some unexpected technology announcements next year, and perhaps a smaller pickup truck.

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/25/c...or-awhile-but-elon-teases-tech-announcements/

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/25/tesla-cybertruck-elon-musk-hints-smaller-electric-pickup-truck/

 

[Thekiwi]

Whoa! What a weird share price to wake up to!

Today is actually the crazy good sale on Tesla shares.

Friday’s drop (likely exacerbated by short sellers) was at least partly understandable as a short term move (ignoring the long term deep undervaluation for a moment), given the highly polarising Truck reveal and the risk it might not sell in the numbers Tesla, and Wall Street, was hoping.

However today, after the 200k+ orders, we KNOW that the truck will in fact be a significant volume contributor to Tesla vehicle sales come 2022 (larger unit volume than S/X/R combined), with likely at least the first years truck production already accounted for, and yet there has been almost zero recovery in the share price from Friday’s fear based drop.

=====

My bearish case for Tesla is that by the mid 2020s they “only” reach an annual volume of ~1 million vehicles, generating ~$50 billion in annual revenue and $10 billion+ in gross margin (excludes Tesla energy contribution). The truck reveal has made at least that bearish scenario much more likely to happen, which would at the least generate a $100-$200 billion market cap.

Today’s share price is crazy nuts.

 

[TradingInvest]

Cyber truk has 100kW battery
That is ~7 powerwall s
7 powerwall s for $50,000!!!!
With wheels _and_ a ?240? V outlet
A mobile powerwall!!!
7 of them!!!

That's how to think outside the (stainless) box.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Gosh, no problem catching up on the thread today - you guys got nothin to say on the CT huh....

Don't mention the CT. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it.

 

[dc_h]

• Reducing the amount of time between a product unveiling and its mass production cuts down on the potential for osborning. However, Elon did indicate there will be some unexpected technology announcements next year: https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/25/c...or-awhile-but-elon-teases-tech-announcements/

What are the options for new tech & 2020 announcements?

Enhanced batteries
Enhanced battery production
New motors
Full self driving
FSD chip v4 - focus on power saving
New wiring solution for 3 and Y
Revamped SX with Plaid announcement
Enhanced infotainment for SX
Satellite uplink to Starlink
Car to car communication to improve traffic control and updates
Solar windows to add ~15 miles back to car daily
New production / assembly tech to increase production capacity

Of course production of Y, Semi and Roadster should all begin to varying degrees. Speeding up Y release date may have delayed Semi and Roadster. With Y pretty much locked down and work focused on production processes, focus on getting Semi moving should be next priority. Roadster should be timed with Plaid S and X, which seems to be Q3 2020.

 

[Thekiwi]

What are the options for new tech & 2020 announcements?

Enhanced batteries
Enhanced battery production
New motors
Full self driving
FSD chip v4 - focus on power saving
New wiring solution for 3 and Y
Revamped SX with Plaid announcement
Enhanced infotainment for SX
Satellite uplink to Starlink
Car to car communication to improve traffic control and updates
Solar windows to add ~15 miles back to car daily
New production / assembly tech to increase production capacity

Of course production of Y, Semi and Roadster should all begin to varying degrees. Speeding up Y release date may have delayed Semi and Roadster. With Y pretty much locked down and work focused on production processes, focus on getting Semi moving should be next priority. Roadster should be timed with Plaid S and X, which seems to be Q3 2020.

don’t forget potential GF5 announcement, and potential supply chain vertical integration.

 

[humbaba]

Don't mention the CT. I mentioned it once, but I think I got away with it.

Connecticut? What's so bad about talking about CT? Is Tesla planning a factory there?

 

[Buckminster]

Can someone clever please answer this:

Speculation of pack sizes (kWh)

Is there a more important topic right now? We need to understand 2 things:

1. How much more cost effective is stainless steel - will it be used elsewhere?
2. What is the cost reduction from the move to Maxwell etc.?
   1. And are all CT variants using the Maxwell batteries

2.) Must be answered first and we must be able to deduce a fair bit from 3 variants, 0-60 times, prices etc.

With our new found knowledge, we can then more accurately predict when SP will reach $4000.

 

[Curt Renz]

Watching NFL yesterday and caught this Audi e-tron add ... is it just me or are they listing all the reasons not to buy an EV perpetuating the the misinformation while advertising their new e-tron

I was initially happy to see BEV add... but upon further inspection this is just more FUD ... message just buy a "real" Audi EVs have too many issues

Audi e-tron TV Commercial, 'Not for You' Song by HOTEI [T1]

thoughts ?

Indeed, you might have detected a hidden reluctance to effectively market EVs by legacy automakers and their dealers. They may fear that their golden geese will share the fates of Thanksgiving turkeys.

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/25/d...gment-on-audi-e-tron-sales-patience-required/

https://ww.electrek.co/2019/11/25/i...arketing-chief-says-theres-no-demand-for-evs/