Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

So glad we are not allowed to discus the Cyber truck.

Gives us plenty of time to talk about which color model X Jim Cramer's wive is gonna pick.

And still half the posts today are about the Cybertruck. Lenient mod on duty I guess.

As for stock: it doesn't matter much what it does now. Once we get close to the delivery report and the financial report, it will move up. I don't think longs want to miss the opportunity of another 50 point spike and shorts cannot afford to get caught off guard by another 50 point spike.

 

[UncaNed]

Due to circumstances I recently watched three John Oliver shows. I'd never seen him before and won't likely see him again, but those three shared enough characteristics that I'm confident of the style of show he runs. Any show with steady character will appeal to some, and not appeal to others.

One show was about... I forget the name, but the guy owns the largest privately held coal mining company and practices SLAPP. So the show was about that guy and SLAPP. I'm moderately familiar with the latter and it seemed fairly decent (within the parameters of the kind of show he does).

Another was about multi-level marketing companies and amounted to an infomercial about their perils. It was pretty spot on.

The third was about bitcoin. His heart was in the right place, but he's in a position with his staff to have done better research and documented serious, insurmountable issues with bitcoin (like its designed inefficiency -- one aspect of which is the escalating energy requirements) and repeating misleading/inaccurate statements that are "common knowledge" (about banking and transactional delays). To put it bluntly, I was disappointed.

The advantage of someone like John Oliver covering the Tesla/Elon Musk story is that it raises visibility. The downside is that the show is made for entertainment value and the predisposition of he or his staff will rule the day. This isn't journalism and any "investigation" is likely to be skin deep.

Would I like to have this story told to a wider audience? Sure -- but for that to happen there are costs. One is it being done as entertainment. Second, if its more entertaining to flip the story (make it about unstable Elon) well...

(and given the small sample of John Oliver that I've seen, a negative story about Elon would fit better with what he does rather than picking fights with mass media over biased and profiteering coverage)

2 out of 3 of those shows were real eye-openers, as many of his shows are. He's built huge credibility with me.

I don't buy your "negative Elon story" concern. That would be very hard to do considering the facts.

 

[EVDRVN]

He's just namedropping his wife to make you think he's not gay

(I'm trying to go for the moon re disagrees today)

You may also want to consider some diversity training.

 

[goinfraftw]

Robintrack (since Cybertruck unveil): ~5% drop in share price, ~4.2% increase in Robinhood Users Holding.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

If we don’t think about the long term potential of Cybertruck and think only about short term share price, does anyone doubt that we’d be well over $400 today if Tesla had unveiled a more conventional truck design and had 500K+ orders? I think in the short term, Cybertruck allowed shorts to regain control of the narrative....

 

[sparcs]

I think in the short term, Cybertruck allowed shorts to regain control of the narrative....

Not sure i'm going to concede that they are in "control" because of the preorder strength and a lot of enthusiasm from the truck. Lots of positive videos coming out. The truck has no real impact to the share price until Tesla actually pumps it out in high volume.

I would call it more of a stalemate in this price range unless there is some additional news either way.

 

[SO16]

View attachment 481532 https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1199264098082578432?s=21

Jim Cramer brilliant call!

“
Back in 2011, with Tesla Inc. shares trading around $22, CNBC’s “Mad Money” host Jim Cramer told a caller to “cut her losses” and sell. “Nothing there. Don’t like that stock,” he said.

Booyah! The stock closed Monday at $336.34.”

CNBC’s Jim Cramer, a longtime Tesla critic, says he might be about to buy a Model X — because his wife says so — MarketWatch

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Not sure i'm going to concede that they are in "control" because of the preorder strength and a lot of enthusiasm from the truck. Lots of positive videos coming out. The truck has no real impact to the share price until Tesla actually pumps it out in high volume.

I would call it more of a stalemate in this price range unless there is some additional news either way.

So you’re saying the $30 drop has nothing to do with the Cybertruck?

 

[JusRelax]

For long term investors it would be healthy to stop looking at the ticker every couple of minutes. The only reason I know the stock price is because someone mentions it here. Short term fluctuations are meaningless if you are not a day trader and most of here shouldn't be.

But then how will you know when the stock is down and it's a good time to add to your long position?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not sure i'm going to concede that they are in "control" because of the preorder strength and a lot of enthusiasm from the truck. Lots of positive videos coming out. The truck has no real impact to the share price until Tesla actually pumps it out in high volume.

I would call it more of a stalemate in this price range unless there is some additional news either way.

They are 100% in control of the stock right now, not really the narrative. This down move is purely Wall St using an excuse to do a bear raid before Q4 numbers. Most of the bear raids Tesla has seen are to limit potential outbreaks to the upside. I'm pretty confident they're going to push it down to 315-320 by close on Friday. Then we'll start a climb back up. But the main intent was to make sure the stock wasn't approaching Q4 numbers while already in the 360-370 range.

 

[humbaba]

2 out of 3 of those shows were real eye-openers, as many of his shows are. He's built huge credibility with me.

I don't buy your "negative Elon story" concern. That would be very hard to do considering the facts.

Sorry, if came across as a 'concern' -- I meant it as a 'possibility' and just pointing out how things go in entertainment. If you consider the "facts" of arson, harassment of employees, abuse of others who denigrate his ego, drug use, emotional instability... I could go on, but the point is that it is easy to do that. Even easier than repeating misinformation about banking transactions. I mention the bitcoin story because he definitely only went skin deep and asked no hard questions (e.g., transactional efficiency).

Personally, I would like someone in the industry to take up the story and dig into it. There's a lot of material there, for example the improper relationship between media and shorts (fairfax, chanos, nuf said). But just because I would like it to be done doesn't mean that it would be done, or if it was, done without putting a Wired magazine twist. After all, at the end of the day it is entertainment.

I used John Oliver to make a point about how such stories end up because 1) I've recently seen the show and 2) it was brought up here. My comments are not intended as exclusive to him. I've seen plenty of documentaries and, sadly, the more you know about the subject matter the worse they get. It isn't a matter of malice, its a fact of limitations on resources and the realities of objectives.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It probably would not have mattered. A conventional design would have had similar complaints. "Oh, that's not a real working truck because 99% of truck owners are farmers and this....it needs a 10 foot bed because I heard sometimes people buy 10ft 2x4s....it looks too fancy for a job site and no contractor will buy it...it starts at 70k which is way too much money etc."

The Y was as standard as possible and the stock dropped the same way.

Exactly. Wall st was always going to use Cybertruck as an sell the news excuse to get the stock lower before Q4 numbers come out

 

[Krugerrand]

Could be true and I didn't mean to dirty delete. But I certainly didn't realize avg lifespan was 200k (and am not convinced).
My last car was an 06 Lincoln LSV8, crapped out at 145K (head gasket) and which I sold to the Russian mafia in L.A.
My previous 2 cars were a 96 Geo Metro and an 88 Acura Integra, neither of which made it past 155K

(oh also a very short lived used Mitsu Eclipse, also head gasket)

I’ve never had a vehicle hit 200k and I’ve driven all mine into the ground - and yes, regular maintenance done in them all. I’ve averaged about 160,000 miles over several vehicles.

 

[Boomer19]

So you’re saying the $30 drop has nothing to do with the Cybertruck?

what about the prior $30 run up before the event?

its all relative

 

[KarenRei]

I’ve never had a vehicle hit 200k and I’ve driven all mine into the ground - and yes, regular maintenance done in them all. I’ve averaged about 160,000 miles over several vehicles.

En route to 500k miles on my Insight. Hit 750k kilometers this summer.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

For long term investors it would be healthy to stop looking at the ticker every couple of minutes.

It would also be healthy for me to stop eating biscuits and bars of chocolate, but I'm failing at all three these days.

 

[sparcs]

So you’re saying the $30 drop has nothing to do with the Cybertruck?

that's what half of us in this topic predicted that the run up was going to be pushed back down by FUD of because of the looks. I can dig up my own post if you want.

If they control the narrative, I'll concede if it goes much lower based on truck only news. (not selling, but i'll concede that point)

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

what about the prior $30 run up before the event?

its all relative

And I’m saying in the short term a more conventional truck design would have kept that going.

P.S: I ordered a Cybertruck. I love it. I’m talking about short term stock price moves.

 

[Remus]

I guess things hasn't changed too much recently. Only real financial numbers really moves the needle.

 

[lascavarian]

If the vehicles last 5x longer, that’s far less resources required to replace the current non-Tesla fleet and maintain the Tesla fleet. Also less going to scrap/landfill. Disarms the argument about more resources go into production of an EV compared to an ICE and also fills Tesla’s mission.

I think of Tesla Transport Services as a limited mission. There are about 100 million sold a year so if they can ramp up to 20 million in annual production then the global fleet can be supplanted with EV technology in around 15 more years give or take.

At that point, that particular mission is in sunset or maintenance mode and maybe SpaceX buys it up. At some point Mars emerges as the dominant mission.

I have been thinking that there is a life cycle that is violated to some extent by the immortal life of the legal construct we call a corporation. Perhaps they should have a limited life so that in their destruction a new more vigorous opportunity may emerge. What have we done in the last 50 years? What would become possible if Apple was to dissolve in 2027? I think there would be an explosion of creative possibilities. Or maybe I have had too much coffee