The Accountant
Active Member
I factored nothing for GF3 - that's more potential upside.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I factored nothing for GF3 - that's more potential upside.
larmor
Active Member
About the cybertruck, did we get a production estimate? Where will it be built? Apparently the angles in the truck design are due to requirements of the material and stamping press, so have they theoretically stamped out a cybertruck or is it a one off. While two years away is far, in terms of capital expense, it is not that far away and discussion of the logistics and volume would be germane to the current market valuation...
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I thought we already heard that all production will be for January sales?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Is there a reason why US can't drop below 20% ? Because now it is just a question of allocation. Just depends on what Tesla has decided to allocate to Europe vs US.
Basic point is - assuming everything produced is being delivered, what determines deliveries in Q4 is the production. We don't know how much they are producing. We can estimate they shipped ~50k till now. That's about it.
No. No. and No. There is no stamping with the Cybertruck. It will be flat sheets of stainless steel that are laser cut, scored, and folded. (And then probably welded together.)
The one they were showing was a one-off built starting a few weeks ago.
After a week or so we'll also have November delivery numbers for all over Europe, which will let us do QoQ comparisons for all over Europe and not just NO/NL/ES. I mean, we have October numbers, but they're pretty worthless, as there was no inventory.
We really won't get a full picture though, as so much demand is getting shoved off into Q1 and it'll mainly be reflective of how much they're diverting to NL.
Have not done your homework, have you?
Yes. Conventional design, conventional manufacturing = higher cost, ho-hum vehicle, not likely to make many converts.
EDIT: For the SP, a conventional design would have just brought about different reasons for the hedge funds to push down, probably they could have gotten a larger push down since there would be few reservations (comparatively). If there was no reveal there would still be a push down just because it's Thanksgiving week.
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ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Tesla growing, Audi shrinking:
Big Bang at Audi
Big Bang at Audi
The Model 3 captured 45% of its class segment -- I have to imagine it is simply eviscerating 3 Series / C-Class sales.
Indeed -- though I would be surprised given the modest tax cliff in the US which should cause Tesla to also prioritize US sales, it is possible that Tesla is banking US deliveries for Q1'20 which could cause a greater falloff.
With that said, it appears that the number of shipments to China in Q4 has increased over Q3 despite the likelihood of significant GF3-produced deliveries, which gives me comfort that GF3 deliveries won't simply help maintain the international prediction in this model, but perhaps make it a real blockbuster.
It's that time of year again and is it possible that some people who bought high are selling to lock in loss for tax reasons, planning to buy back in anticipation of weakness in q1 results?
This could turn hilariousMusk could make this into a big livestreamed webcast event as a big faceoff, call out Ford for chickening out, put a professional driver in a truck matching Ford's criteria and Tyson's suggestions about fully loading each - citing both Ford's criteria and Tyson's suggestions, and using the latter as a seal of approval on the physics of the arrangement - and then utterly trounce it.
On the same tires, Cybertruck would still easily win in those circumstances, due to greater weight (particularly since it carries more - as if Ford could raise that as an objection without further embarassment!
It would be riotous and get tons of coverage. And the depreciation for buying a Ford (even a tricked out one), dragging it once, and then selling it would be a nothing cost to Tesla.
So I guess that eliminates Ford from the rumored Tesla / US Pickup drivetrain collaboration
Also worth noting that Model 3 is -- by far -- the largest seller YTD by revenue in California (the 5th largest economy in the world).
Back of the envelope $50K per Model 3, $33K (conservative) per Camry puts Model 3 ~50% higher than the Camry. Ford sold 37872 F-Series trucks so F-Series is probably in 2nd place with Model 3 likely generating ~40% more revenue assuming ~$45K per truck.
There's evidence on the FB group that Model 3 delivery slowly trickles out through the quarter in the US while ships are being loaded.
In recent weeks whenever there has been heavy selling of TSLA during a particular minute with no fresh news, it has almost always involved about 73,000 shares. This may imply that a particular manipulator can afford to briefly short that many shares before covering at leisure later in the day. The intent would be to trigger the loss limits of weak longs. In the past this worked well, but more recently the effect has diminished. Just now dip buyers appear to be taking advantage.
I wanted to circle back on some disagrees, especially some aggressive arguing by @StealthP3D that non-financial "events", specifically:
1. GF4
2. Cybertruck
Could do the SP a whole lot of good. I think we can say that those assumptions turned out to be false on both counts (and highlighted by the lack of GF3 deliveries start, which could provide a boost).
I'm bullish long term like most people here, but would suggest that we don't shoot ourselves in the foot by overhyping non-financial events.
At least until TSLA is included into S&P 500 and the craziness goes down.
1. GF4
2. Cybertruck
Could do the SP a whole lot of good. I think we can say that those assumptions turned out to be false on both counts (and highlighted by the lack of GF3 deliveries start, which could provide a boost).
I'm bullish long term like most people here, but would suggest that we don't shoot ourselves in the foot by overhyping non-financial events.
At least until TSLA is included into S&P 500 and the craziness goes down.
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