Elon has been on Earth for a while now, now sure what news we are supposed to get from that.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
No chickens here, especially given the topic was discussed.
The following statement makes the claim that there is news:
Whereas the the reality is:
Elon was is Flint earlier this year, yet there is still not a Tesla steel mill in Durand feeding GF5 (would have been GF4).
The Grohmann purchase was brilliant. It is proving to be more and more valuable each day.
It would be nice to get insight into cost reductions through the use of the new Grohmann equipment at GF1.
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Bullish_Bear
Member
Tesla sold only 16565 in Oct? How come...
First two months always with tons of car in transit
sundaymorning
Active Member
Decency isn’t in the vocabularies of any said person above. They have sold their soul to the highest bidder who are eager to slow Tesla down. Their job now is to dig as much dirt on Tesla/Elon or the Tesla team, and even if they find gold, they will figure out a way to spin the truth and market they own hatred; spilling FUD, making up lies along the way. If can bury the truth, stop a person from reserving a Tesla, then that’s a win in their books. World hunger and other catastrophes caused by climate change are meaningless to these people as they have sold their soul to make a buck, cause they too have hungry mouths to feed at home, bills and utilities to pay....and as long as they can afford to put gas in their tanks, drive themselves to work—who cares how many bodies they stack up along the way. Welcome to American greed at its worst.
sundaymorning
Active Member
“Mega packs have priority even over cars”.
Wow. How many mega packs are we building? If Tesla can show this sector to be growing exponentially, and that there’s potential demand in that market, then it won’t be long before we get liftoff.
Carsonight has been pretty accurate, but again, he’s been off before as well.
Still, in July they sold 23k, so this is not that encouraging. We already saw that Europe was 50% down in October compared to month 1 and month 2 of Q3. I was hoping those cars went elsewhere.
However we know they are sending out at least 16 ships world wide compared to the 12 last quarter. So the demand is probably there but we will once again be dancing on a knife's edge with a major push at the end of Q4 when many customers are on vacation / travelling and weather can be tricky too.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The numbers are all (probably) true, but the conclusion is wrong.
There are several factors that made October deliveries weak (to the extent the ev-sales blog tracking is accurate: a lot of it is guesswork), all of which are good signs for Q4 deliveries:
- In July (first month of Q3) they sold 23k, which is higher than the 16k of October, because only about 70% of Fremont was producing for international markets, 30% of production was making U.S. batches and delivering them in July.
- In October it's very likely that near 100% of Fremont production went to international markets, near zero to the U.S. We know this from the ship tracking efforts: outgoing Q4 ship traffic is already 45% higher than in Q3: 45 loading days in Q4 already vs. only 31 loading days in Q3. This starved the U.S. market in October which had very low inventory. (I bet Tesla also cherry-picked higher margin U.S. customers by accelerating LR+AWD and Performance deliveries.) If Fremont was making ~35k units for the international market in Q3 then in Q4, if they had the same production rate as in Q3, they made ~50k international units already.
- The European deliveries logistics operation in September (end of Q3) was more refined than in June (end of Q2). We know this from the fact that there are NL orders reported in the Dutch forum here on TCM that date back to July and August that still aren't filled in November and are marked for delivery in December. 4-5 months of delay even in the one tax-cliff affected market that Tesla is favoring currently, suggests that in October they had close to zero, nil, nada inventory in Europe. In Norway there must be a sizeable backlog of SR+ orders already.
(At least that's my guess: not advice, etc.
)Clearly #TeslaDemandProblems, short on!
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Sean Wagner
Member
via JPR007 on Twitter
Some of the world's biggest automotive suppliers for advanced classic technology are German [the only US firm in the top ten being Lear], and upmarket cars also involve more work.
Top 100 automotive suppliers, list as of page 4:
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/data-p...opSuppliers-062419.pdf?djoDirectDownload=true
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
An 8k per week average pack production rate in Q4 aligns with Panasonic's chart showing 20% cell production growth.
Assuming CleanTechnica's report is correct (and it appears to be backed up by Tesla's Q3 balance sheet inventory increase) then Tesla produced 79,837 packs for Fremont and 7,000 packs for GF3 in Q3. This is a total of 86,837 or 6,680 per week.
8,000 per week would be 19.8% growth vs Q3.
This would also allow for a 20% QoQ growth rate in Energy Storage (possibly more if they also use LG/Samsung cells). The main question is how many additional packs were sent to China in Q4.
I think it does make sense to create a significant stockpile of packs in China ahead of the tariff increase in mid December.
"a 25% tariff will be imposed on U.S. cars and a 5% on auto parts and components, which will go into effect on Dec.15."
All GF3 production has to be supplied with packs and powertrains from GF1 until the GF3 Powertrain/Pack building starts production (probably in March/April). And even then, Tesla will likely continue sending packs from GF1 until the GF3 pack lines have ramped up to the same production rate as the GF3 car lines.
Of course how many GF1 packs will be needed in total at GF3 depends on the speed of the GF3 production ramp. But I do think it makes sense to send these sooner rather than later due to the increasing tariffs and due to new demand for Model Y packs ramping up in Fremont next year.
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Yeah, but there's just as many folks, such as me, who say it looks great and don't really care what others think or say.
RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
LOL. Sounds like they make the best horse drawn plows in the south farthing.
ZachF
Active Member
Elon could be in Japan for SpaceX stuff (dear moon).
Or he could just be having couple of days R&R, though I doubt it.
Or he could be there to discuss things with OEMs (for any of his companies), which are abundant in Japan.
Or banks, about loans to fund new gigafactories / product lines.
Or a Japanese energy company, about major storage projects (which Japan could certainly use).
Or he could be there to discuss things with Panasonic, but having nothing to do with "buying Panasonic's portion of GF1", speculation that's been made up out of whole cloth.
Or he could be there to launch a new project to genetically engineer catgirls.
There's an endless list of reasons why Elon could be in Japan.
ED: Wasn't Elon in Tokyo anyway? Panasonic's headquarters is in Osaka. Japan is a country the size of California; a trip from Tokyo to Osaka is 82% as far as one from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Yeah, they have shinkansen, but... you definitely wouldn't fly to Tokyo in order to meet someone in Osaka.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
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