Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nativewolf]

LOL. Sounds like they make the best horse drawn plows in the south farthing.

You may be completely discounting the impact of Cockshutt's newly redsigned horse drawn hay tedder. The implications are enourrmass and frightening for tesla longs. If teslaq finds out about the growth in Amish farming in VA, MD, PA, Ohio and Wisconsin and make the proper extrapolation they'll quickly find out that there may be up to 500,000 americans by 2025 that simply can't own an electric car, this will obviously cap the market potential of tesla in the USA and should lead to a significant pull back in share price. Obviously, we want to watch for any sign that sales of the latest cockshutt's hay tedders sales are increasing. If so, probably a good time to sell your tesla shares.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Or he could be there to discuss things with OEMs (for any of his companies), which are abundant in Japan.
Or banks, about loans to fund new gigafactories / product lines.
Or a Japanese energy company, about major storage projects (which Japan could certainly use).
Or he could be there to discuss things with Panasonic, but having nothing to do with "buying Panasonic's portion of GF1", speculation that's been made up out of whole cloth.
Or he could be there to launch a new project to genetically engineer catgirls.

There's an endless list of reasons why Elon could be in Japan.

ED: Wasn't Elon in Tokyo anyway? Panasonic's headquarters is in Osaka.

Grimes went to TeamLabs in Tokyo yesterday, presumably with Elon. Both TeamLabs Planets and Borderless are spectacular by the way, highly recommended

 

[KarenRei]

Or he got tired of Benihana. Just sayin'...could happen.

Dan

Maybe he's going to Ninja Akasaka

 

[pnungesser]

Got this in the mail today. "Do you have a Tesla Model S? I want to buy it for cash"

Oops. Must be a mistake, since Jack Hollis, the general manager of Toyota's North American division, says there's no demand for EVs.


View attachment 482906
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I got one too.

 

[The Accountant]

Tesla sold only 16565 in Oct? How come...

Only 2 ships departed Pier 80 in September with a total of 2 loading days (and only one of those ships was heading to Europe). That explains the low October.

The Oct departing ships had loading days of 22.2 with Nov at 22.7 for a total of 44.9 loading days thus far in Q4. November and December international deliveries will be huge.

 

[winfield100]

Yeah, but there's just as many folks, such as me, who say it looks great and don't really care what others think or say.

Hypothetical (actual reality parts anyway)
The tornados (there was a swath storm of ~300 a few springs ago on east coast of US), earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, massive forest fires, etc, etc.
imagine a bunch of cybertrucks pulling trailers of mega packs, “pop-up” electric plants with origami like PV panels unfolding.
Do this once only, as everyone goes “I gotta have one also” for next time
I drive up and down east coast US and see PV giant arrays and roof top 10kw+ starting to appear everywhere.
and lots of EV’s, mostly teslas

 

[kbM3]

Tesla’s current worldwide automotive market share (rounding to 400k/year) is 0.5%.

This is tiny, but I would guess that just like smartphones, the majority of the profit lies in the $40k+ range. I would love to know Tesla’s share of the $40k+ market. My gut tells me it’s > 10% and VERY rapidly growing. Could it be that Tesla already has a 5% overall share of all automotive gross profit?

I looked but had no luck finding data on sales breakdowns worldwide by price.Has anyone seen anything like this?

 

[EV Promoter]

Gali’s interesting speculation on Battery Investor Day. I don’t know how accurate it is, and it does seem like it might be possible to just draw these connections because everybody in the battery industry probably knows each other and kind of has worked together at some time, but it still is a little bit intriguing.

Brilliant investigation indeed.... but i'm puzzled about the position of Goodenough in the story, if he really have any.

Or he is rather senile or as late as end of 2017 he had no idea whatsoever of Tesla batteries, which is rather strange.

Go to the min 4:50 about.
Basically he is saying that Tesla batteries lasts 2 years before a change that cost 28,000$ and that perhaps people that likes to show off with a Tesla are very happy to pay it....

 

[KarenRei]

Brilliant investigation indeed.... but i'm puzzled about the position of Goodenough in the story, if he really have any.

Or he is rather senile or as late as end of 2017 he had no idea whatsoever of Tesla batteries, which is rather strange.

Go to the min 4:50 about.
Basically he is saying that Tesla batteries lasts 2 years before a change that cost 28,000$ and that perhaps people that likes to show off with a Tesla are very happy to pay it....

I feel bad for Goodenough; he's been destroying his reputation these past couple years. This should have been the peak of his life, getting the Nobel Prize for his pioneering li-ion work. Instead he's wrapped up in what's widely considered to be bad experimental design with Braga.

My forecast odds for battery day, being announced for availability with their first-generation of internal production:

• Lower production costs: 100%
• Dry manufacturing: 97%
• At least slightly longer lifespans: 95% (Model 3-style pack rated for an average >300k mi)
• At least moderately longer lifespans: 50% (Model 3-style pack rated for >= 500k mi)
• Dramatically longer lifespans: 30% ("million mile battery")
• At least slightly higher energy densities: 85% (<10% gain)
• At least moderately higher energy densities: 50% (10-30% gain)
• Dramatically higher energy densities: 25% (>30% gain)
• Lower-cobalt: 70%
• Cobalt-free: 25%
• Lithium metal anodes: 20%
• Solid state, loose definition of the term: 8%
• Solid state, strict definition of the term: 4%
• Air cathodes or other dramatic departures: 2%
• Intent to introduce ultracapacitors to EVs: <1%
• Working with Goodenough: 0%

 

[EV Promoter]

I feel bad for Goodenough; he's been destroying his reputation these past couple years. This should have been the peak of his life, getting the Nobel Prize for his pioneering li-ion work. Instead he's wrapped up in what's widely considered to be bad experimental design with Braga.

He is 97, even without Alzheimer or some sort of illness, a strong cognitive decay could be natural.... pity... particularly if someone is manipulating him... sad.
In any case i would exclude some positive position in Gali's bunch.

 

[KarenRei]

• I count 15 trucks at the docks on the parallel-parking side and one on the diagonal-parking side - nice!
• Tons of model 3s on the move. I count somewhere in the ballpark of 200 visible.
• Battery building walls mostly clad.
• Land prep started for what should become the Model Y line.

 

[BozieBeMe2]

• I count 15 trucks at the docks on the parallel-parking side and one on the diagonal-parking side - nice!
• Tons of model 3s on the move. I count somewhere in the ballpark of 200 visible.
• Battery building walls mostly clad.
• Land prep started for what should become the Model Y line.

Thanks for the updates and the little music clips. I enjoy all you share

 

[EV Promoter]

That's a recent statement by Braga on the mighty cells that increases capacity with time

"Braga says their group has been working with companies looking to license the battery technology. Because no official announcements have been made, she said she could not reveal who the licensors are or what technology they might be developing with this battery."

Full Page Reload

Can't see Elon falling for someone that says:

"“We are complex beings that happen between an entropy increase,” she says about the increased capacity claims—and any alleged violation of thermodynamics."

 

[nativewolf]

Tesla’s current worldwide automotive market share (rounding to 400k/year) is 0.5%.

This is tiny, but I would guess that just like smartphones, the majority of the profit lies in the $40k+ range. I would love to know Tesla’s share of the $40k+ market. My gut tells me it’s > 10% and VERY rapidly growing. Could it be that Tesla already has a 5% overall share of all automotive gross profit?

I looked but had no luck finding data on sales breakdowns worldwide by price.Has anyone seen anything like this?

They have 100% of the EV automotive profits. However, as reported previously by teslaQ this is going to be under threat as the burgeoning Amish population provides a significant cap on Tesla's goal of total world domination.

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks for the updates and the little music clips. I enjoy all you share

I'm not Wuwa

 

[Lessmog]

• I count 15 trucks at the docks on the parallel-parking side and one on the diagonal-parking side - nice!
• Tons of model 3s on the move. I count somewhere in the ballpark of 200 visible.
• Battery building walls mostly clad.
• Land prep started for what should become the Model Y line.

Big thanks! Not easy to count, but it looked like over 200 M-3's total in the two parking lots, with another half dozen rolling up now and again.

 

[dc_h]

I've had enough time to get the opinions about the cybertruck from many walks of life and had enough time to digest my own feelings about it. One suspiscion I have is that many people think it is super cool, but are afraid to say so due to many people thinking it is ugly. Because of its polarizing design, there are people who will come out strongly to say it is ugly and those who think it is beautiful will think twice before voicing their own opinion in order to not stand out.

I believe this product's impact will be similar to an iPhone moment. I would push back the semi and Roadster 2020 and focus on expediting the cybertruck.

The Semi needs to happen soon. Corp customers have capex timelines and Tesla needs to stick to dates. The semi will have a significant financial impact for Tesla and it’s commercial customers. This is a product that will show Wall Street how Tesla improves others downstream. This can be a transformative product in how the world sees Tesla, as a company that will transform the economy and change how we get things done.

 

[Lessmog]

I'm not Wuwa

Well, you surprise us every day!

 

[BozieBeMe2]

I'm not Wuwa

I know, but you posted here so,,, thats sharing?
Especially the music clip, I took as yours?

 

[KarenRei]

I know, but you posted here so,,, thats sharing?
Especially the music clip, I took as yours?

The music is part of the video