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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Bullish_Bear

Member
Jun 7, 2018
45
-21
Seattle, WA
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EV Sales: Global Top 20 October 2019

Tesla sold only 16565 in Oct? How come...
 

sundaymorning

Active Member
Jul 26, 2013
3,465
18,338
Orange County
Is anyone keeping a spreadsheet of Auto and Truck mfgs that tracks job cuts. First we have Audi announcing 10,000 job cuts, then France announces up to 15,000 auto mfg lost jobs due to EV transition, now MB announces another 10,000. In the trucking industry Cummins announced 2,000. GM announced earlier this year that it intended to cut up to 15,000 jobs and also end production at 5 different factories. Ford had announced cutting 7,000 jobs earlier this year. And Chysler has admitted the need to cut about 1,500 jobs earlier this year too.

That's about 59,500 jobs lost to EVs - without counting Japan or Korea or elsewhere

Tesla has about 42,000 employees now...............?

So Tesla is actually picking up the jobs lost everywhere else at almost the rate they are being lost

There is a BIG story here that is good for the US and good for Tesla that Dana, Lilo, and Lora are really trying to bury

That the EV revolution is creating jobs almost 1 for 1 as we clean up the planet

This is BIG stuff. Where is Edward R Murrow when we need him!

Have you no sense of decency, Dana, Lilo, and Lora!

Decency isn’t in the vocabularies of any said person above. They have sold their soul to the highest bidder who are eager to slow Tesla down. Their job now is to dig as much dirt on Tesla/Elon or the Tesla team, and even if they find gold, they will figure out a way to spin the truth and market they own hatred; spilling FUD, making up lies along the way. If can bury the truth, stop a person from reserving a Tesla, then that’s a win in their books. World hunger and other catastrophes caused by climate change are meaningless to these people as they have sold their soul to make a buck, cause they too have hungry mouths to feed at home, bills and utilities to pay....and as long as they can afford to put gas in their tanks, drive themselves to work—who cares how many bodies they stack up along the way. Welcome to American greed at its worst.
 

sundaymorning

Active Member
Jul 26, 2013
3,465
18,338
Orange County
Not sure if repost, carsonight over in twitter says we’re at 8k battery packs/wk.

Seems like we should be further ahead than we are?

someone else on twitter thinks Elon is in Japan, landed yesterday.

Carsonight on Twitter

“Mega packs have priority even over cars”.

Wow. How many mega packs are we building? If Tesla can show this sector to be growing exponentially, and that there’s potential demand in that market, then it won’t be long before we get liftoff.

Carsonight has been pretty accurate, but again, he’s been off before as well.
 

mrdoubleb

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,603
14,423
Budapest, Hungary
First two months always with tons of car in transit
Still, in July they sold 23k, so this is not that encouraging. We already saw that Europe was 50% down in October compared to month 1 and month 2 of Q3. I was hoping those cars went elsewhere.

However we know they are sending out at least 16 ships world wide compared to the 12 last quarter. So the demand is probably there but we will once again be dancing on a knife's edge with a major push at the end of Q4 when many customers are on vacation / travelling and weather can be tricky too.
 
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Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,116
Vienna
Still, in July they sold 23k, so this is not that encouraging. We already saw that Europe was 50% down in October compared to month 1 and month 2 of Q3. I was hoping those cars went elsewhere.

The numbers are all (probably) true, but the conclusion is wrong.

There are several factors that made October deliveries weak (to the extent the ev-sales blog tracking is accurate: a lot of it is guesswork), all of which are good signs for Q4 deliveries:
  • In July (first month of Q3) they sold 23k, which is higher than the 16k of October, because only about 70% of Fremont was producing for international markets, 30% of production was making U.S. batches and delivering them in July.
  • In October it's very likely that near 100% of Fremont production went to international markets, near zero to the U.S. We know this from the ship tracking efforts: outgoing Q4 ship traffic is already 45% higher than in Q3: 45 loading days in Q4 already vs. only 31 loading days in Q3. This starved the U.S. market in October which had very low inventory. (I bet Tesla also cherry-picked higher margin U.S. customers by accelerating LR+AWD and Performance deliveries.) If Fremont was making ~35k units for the international market in Q3 then in Q4, if they had the same production rate as in Q3, they made ~50k international units already.
  • The European deliveries logistics operation in September (end of Q3) was more refined than in June (end of Q2). We know this from the fact that there are NL orders reported in the Dutch forum here on TCM that date back to July and August that still aren't filled in November and are marked for delivery in December. 4-5 months of delay even in the one tax-cliff affected market that Tesla is favoring currently, suggests that in October they had close to zero, nil, nada inventory in Europe. In Norway there must be a sizeable backlog of SR+ orders already.
So October was uncharacteristically weak, because of the twofer of a good inventory flush at the end of Q3 and 100% of Fremont busy loading ships and starving North American markets.

(At least that's my guess: not advice, etc. :rolleyes:)

Tesla sold only 16565 in Oct? How come...

Clearly #TeslaDemandProblems, short on! ;)
 
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Sean Wagner

Member
Mar 2, 2016
612
2,383
-
The transition to EVs is IMHO going to be a net-negative in terms of employment for Germany. Therefore, Germany will always have a supply of automotive talent looking for work that Tesla can take advantage of.

EKiyb0lUcAUB5Uc


via JPR007 on Twitter

Some of the world's biggest automotive suppliers for advanced classic technology are German [the only US firm in the top ten being Lear], and upmarket cars also involve more work.

Top 100 automotive suppliers, list as of page 4:
https://s3-prod.autonews.com/data-p...opSuppliers-062419.pdf?djoDirectDownload=true
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,367
-
If you read more on the Carsonight thread, he initially claims that it's 5k domestic, 3k to China (which contradicts earlier info that they've stopped sending packs to China this quarter... and more to the point makes no sense whatsoever, to send packs to China to sit around in warehouses while starving production in the US). When questioned further, he makes it clear that the 3k was "just guessing", and that the only number that they're confident in is the 8k total, and have no clue where packs go once they leave GF1. Which makes writing the original 3k/5k claim without noting that it's just guesswork grossly irresponsible. :Þ

Fremont consumed somewhat over 6,1k/wk of GF1 pack production in Q3. "Somewhat over" because of whole-pack scrappage (depends on what point you count packs when assessing the production rate).

The short of it: there's not really any useful info in there. If Fremont is actually consuming all of them, and there's 0% scrappage, the that's a production-rate growth of 24,6k Model 3s vs. Q3. On the other hand, if there's any scrappage between that count and vehicle assembly, or any pack exporting, the number could be anything.

An 8k per week average pack production rate in Q4 aligns with Panasonic's chart showing 20% cell production growth.

Assuming CleanTechnica's report is correct (and it appears to be backed up by Tesla's Q3 balance sheet inventory increase) then Tesla produced 79,837 packs for Fremont and 7,000 packs for GF3 in Q3. This is a total of 86,837 or 6,680 per week.
8,000 per week would be 19.8% growth vs Q3.

This would also allow for a 20% QoQ growth rate in Energy Storage (possibly more if they also use LG/Samsung cells). The main question is how many additional packs were sent to China in Q4.
I think it does make sense to create a significant stockpile of packs in China ahead of the tariff increase in mid December.
"a 25% tariff will be imposed on U.S. cars and a 5% on auto parts and components, which will go into effect on Dec.15."

All GF3 production has to be supplied with packs and powertrains from GF1 until the GF3 Powertrain/Pack building starts production (probably in March/April). And even then, Tesla will likely continue sending packs from GF1 until the GF3 pack lines have ramped up to the same production rate as the GF3 car lines.

Of course how many GF1 packs will be needed in total at GF3 depends on the speed of the GF3 production ramp. But I do think it makes sense to send these sooner rather than later due to the increasing tariffs and due to new demand for Model Y packs ramping up in Fremont next year.
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,958
23,896
Texas
I've had enough time to get the opinions about the cybertruck from many walks of life and had enough time to digest my own feelings about it. One suspiscion I have is that many people think it is super cool, but are afraid to say so due to many people thinking it is ugly. Because of its polarizing design, there are people who will come out strongly to say it is ugly and those who think it is beautiful will think twice before voicing their own opinion in order to not stand out.

I believe this product's impact will be similar to an iPhone moment. I would push back the semi and Roadster 2020 and focus on expediting the cybertruck.
Yeah, but there's just as many folks, such as me, who say it looks great and don't really care what others think or say.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,836
Iceland
Or he could just be having couple of days R&R, though I doubt it.

Or he could be there to discuss things with OEMs (for any of his companies), which are abundant in Japan.
Or banks, about loans to fund new gigafactories / product lines.
Or a Japanese energy company, about major storage projects (which Japan could certainly use).
Or he could be there to discuss things with Panasonic, but having nothing to do with "buying Panasonic's portion of GF1", speculation that's been made up out of whole cloth.
Or he could be there to launch a new project to genetically engineer catgirls.

There's an endless list of reasons why Elon could be in Japan.

ED: Wasn't Elon in Tokyo anyway? Panasonic's headquarters is in Osaka. Japan is a country the size of California; a trip from Tokyo to Osaka is 82% as far as one from Los Angeles to San Francisco. Yeah, they have shinkansen, but... you definitely wouldn't fly to Tokyo in order to meet someone in Osaka.
 
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Dan Detweiler

Active Member
Apr 21, 2016
3,062
12,909
Canton, Georgia
Or he could be there to discuss things with OEMs (for any of his companies), which are abundant in Japan.
Or banks, about loans to fund new gigafactories / product lines.
Or a Japanese energy company, about major storage projects (which Japan could certainly use).
Or he could be there to discuss things with Panasonic, but having nothing to do with "buying Panasonic's portion of GF1", speculation that's been made up out of whole cloth.
Or he could be there to launch a new project to genetically engineer catgirls.

There's an endless list of reasons why Elon could be in Japan.

ED: Wasn't Elon in Tokyo anyway? Panasonic's headquarters is in Osaka.
Or he got tired of Benihana. Just sayin'...could happen.

Dan
 

nativewolf

Member
Jul 21, 2015
926
2,247
viena va United States
LOL. Sounds like they make the best horse drawn plows in the south farthing.

You may be completely discounting the impact of Cockshutt's newly redsigned horse drawn hay tedder. The implications are enourrmass and frightening for tesla longs. If teslaq finds out about the growth in Amish farming in VA, MD, PA, Ohio and Wisconsin and make the proper extrapolation they'll quickly find out that there may be up to 500,000 americans by 2025 that simply can't own an electric car, this will obviously cap the market potential of tesla in the USA and should lead to a significant pull back in share price. Obviously, we want to watch for any sign that sales of the latest cockshutt's hay tedders sales are increasing. If so, probably a good time to sell your tesla shares.
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,367
-
Or he could be there to discuss things with OEMs (for any of his companies), which are abundant in Japan.
Or banks, about loans to fund new gigafactories / product lines.
Or a Japanese energy company, about major storage projects (which Japan could certainly use).
Or he could be there to discuss things with Panasonic, but having nothing to do with "buying Panasonic's portion of GF1", speculation that's been made up out of whole cloth.
Or he could be there to launch a new project to genetically engineer catgirls.

There's an endless list of reasons why Elon could be in Japan.

ED: Wasn't Elon in Tokyo anyway? Panasonic's headquarters is in Osaka.

Grimes went to TeamLabs in Tokyo yesterday, presumably with Elon. Both TeamLabs Planets and Borderless are spectacular by the way, highly recommended
 
Aug 6, 2019
915
32,398
Connecticut, USA
Tesla sold only 16565 in Oct? How come...

Only 2 ships departed Pier 80 in September with a total of 2 loading days (and only one of those ships was heading to Europe). That explains the low October.

The Oct departing ships had loading days of 22.2 with Nov at 22.7 for a total of 44.9 loading days thus far in Q4. November and December international deliveries will be huge.


upload_2019-11-30_9-24-52.png
 

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