Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Why do you think this trial will have a significant impact on Tesla's share price? It's just a civil trial for some comments Musk Tweeted after he was insulted for trying to help some children in need of rescue. Either the court will find Musk has to compensate the guy or they will blow it off. It has nothing to do directly with Tesla. The basic facts are known, it's just a legality to determine if Musk's comments will be judged to be libelous or not.

Wall Street blows off stuff like this because it simply doesn't matter.

Indeed, the lawsuit is a personal one involving Musk and not Tesla at all. If anything, there is a tiny relationship with SpaceX, since they were to build the proposed rescue vehicle. Still, only Musk could be forced to compensate for libel.

Meanwhile, this will be a jury trial. Selection begins tomorrow, and the judge plans to likely disallow anyone with prejudices against billionaires or prejudices against people who visit or live in Thailand. That procedure may be time consuming.

 

[UrsS]

I didn't say the battery should be sized for your average usage, it should be sized to meet your actual needs.

So, my actual needs are about 3 hours of driving (even in cold weather) without having to worry about having only 2 miles left at the next charging station and without having to wait an extra hour to charge from 95% to 100%.
So, yup the Leaf we had just did not quite make it - although we loved it anyway.
The long range Model 3 is almost adequate - 400 miles of stated range would be good enough. Until then lots of people will not by an EV.

 

[EVNow]

I didn't say the battery should be sized for your average usage, it should be sized to meet your actual needs.

We shouldn’t be talking about average or actual or daily needs. What does actual mean anyway?

It’s a question of what % of your needs are fulfilled. For a small % of needs we can rent. For eg., even 90% is not enough- because that means I’ve to rent 30 days a year. But renting 3 times a year may be ok.

Of course there are 2 car scenarios etc.

 

[EVNow]

Indeed, the lawsuit is a personal one involving Musk and not Tesla at all.

My theory is that, bad news regarding Musk gives a boost to shorts and they are emboldened to short more. Reverse happens to longs - who now expect sp to go down on bad news and will wait to buy.

 

[CarlK]

If Elon is found liable what would that mean for POTUS, who has not only caused monetary damages, but has also caused life threatening ones from tweets. A part of me wants Elon to pay pedo guy
$1M.

If you consider SEC's action against Elon's going private tweet one tweet from the orange man moves the $40 trillion US stock market whether they are real or fake. SEC is fine with that.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

OT: Just lost power on PG&E. Have a powerwall and solar system already installed a week and a half ago but waiting on an inspection by... PG&E

 

[Buckminster]

Poll - Q4 M3 production
Mean is about 89k M3s built (incl MIC). This is ~10% up from Q3.

 

[Carl Raymond]

My theory is that, bad news regarding Musk gives a boost to shorts and they are emboldened to short more. Reverse happens to longs - who now expect sp to go down on bad news and will wait to buy.

Sooo not relevant.

China ramping.
Q4 deliveries.
Cyber orders.
FSD due.
Battery costs declining.
Model Y sooner than expected.

A heated tweet from Elon made over a year ago is nothing more than white noise.

 

[LST]

Strong opening, +334 something, will be interesting how much power/ cash they are willing to throw at TSLA...
i see a dip to 329.37 and then a steady rise, lets say 334.98

have to try harder next time, missed it by a few cents

 

[kengchang]

Comment from BizLink Group's quarterly report

2019 Q1

Automotive line: customers affordable car sales to Europe and China, shipments heat up;
And cut production capacity, this quarter's shipments are comparable to the previous quarter. Auto line shipments throughout the quarter are still slightly higher than in the previous quarter.

Automotive harness: Electric vehicle harness escloser as customers continue to expand in Asia and Europe and other markets, as well as customers are scheduled to run the Shanghai plant by the end of the year, the second half of the year
Shipments are expected to be better than in the first half of the year.

2019 Q2

Automotive line: electric vehicle line shipments than the first quarter stronger;

2019 Q3

Car line: the beginning of the season flat, mid-to-end season began to strengthen.

Automotive line, with electric vehicle customers Shanghai plant production capacity gradually started, the medium- and long-term outlook is positive.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent: (US20190217380) MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS

Application Date: 18 Jan 2018
Publication Date: 18 Jul 2019​

"The present disclosure relates generally to manufacturing a vehicle frame, and more particularly to a multi-directional die casting machine for casting a unibody vehicle frame and associated methods thereof.

"Typically, in the context of vehicle frame manufacturing and the die casting process, multiple die casting machines are each used to cast different components of a vehicle frame.

"There remains a need for an improved die casting machine and associated methods thereof, particularly as related to casting a vehicle frame to reduce work required to achieve a final assembled product.

"The present disclosure describes embodiments of die casting machines and methods thereof that may reduce:

• build time
• operation costs
• costs of manufacturing
• factory footprint
• factory operating costs
• tooling costs
• quantity of equipment

"Such casting machines may reduce a number of casting machines or actual castings required to cast a complete or substantially complete vehicle frame."

FIG. 1A is an illustration of a multi-directional casting machine for a vehicle frame configured in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure

FIG. 2 is an illustration of a multi-directional casting machine for a vehicle frame configured in accordance with another embodiment of the present disclosure.

FIG. 6 is an illustration of an example method of casting a vehicle frame configured in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.

Look for Cyber v2.0 production to commence sometime in 2023 (or shortly after Tri-motor Cybertruck). Tesla is moving forward with their vision for "the machine that builds the machine". That new architechture will manufacture die-cast stainless-steel metal-foam million-mile uni-body cars/trucks in huge volumes, and at an unmatched low per-unit cost.

"Economical. Durable. Intelligent. Connected." Tesla's unbeatable combination of attributes will change the world forever, no going back. Consumers will demand nothing less, indeed some will also insist upon "Fast". WE GOT THIS.

TL;dr Cyber v2.0 is: Stamping | Body | Paint | Die Casting | General Assembly

Cheers!

P.S. If Tesla acquires companies like Havel Metal Foam in Brandenburg, that'll be a tell.

 

[Fact Checking]

That new architechture will manufacture die-cast stainless-steel metal-foam million-mile uni-body cars/trucks in huge volumes, and at an unmatchablely low unit cost.

Not sure that's possible, the cold-rolling of stainless steel into sheets changes the crystalline structure (it's a form of steel work-hardening), it hardens and smooths the surface:

Casting is fine if you are creating a primarily load-bearing structure, such as part of the frame, but the extra hardness (scratch and corrosion resistance) is a key physical property for an exoskeleton.

A cast steel surface is also fundamentally rough and cannot normally be a customer facing surface - and finishing it the hard way (polishing it) is much, much slower and more expensive than cold-rolling.

I believe the Cybertruck manufacturing technology is fundamentally cold-rolled metal sheet based, with cutting/scoring and folding being the primary forming methods - plus some welding. (Even metallic screws are problematic: these types of stainless steel sheets take a lot of effort to drill through.)

 

[MartinAustin]

Pre-market $337

 

[Lessmog]

This is so brilliant! Why not combine the two techs into an amalgamated foam-cast-stainless-steel sandwich?
Not-a-nothingburger (TM)

Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent: (US20190217380) MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS

Application Date: 18 Jan 2018
Publication Date: 18 Jul 2019​

"The present disclosure relates generally to manufacturing a vehicle frame, and more particularly to a multi-directional die casting machine for casting a unibody vehicle frame and associated methods thereof.

"Typically, in the context of vehicle frame manufacturing and the die casting process, multiple die casting machines are each used to cast different components of a vehicle frame.

"There remains a need for an improved die casting machine and associated methods thereof, particularly as related to casting a vehicle frame to reduce work required to achieve a final assembled product.

"The present disclosure describes embodiments of die casting machines and methods thereof that may reduce:

• build time
• operation costs
• costs of manufacturing
• factory footprint
• factory operating costs
• tooling costs
• quantity of equipment

"Such casting machines may reduce a number of casting machines or actual castings required to cast a complete or substantially complete vehicle frame."

FIG. 1A is an illustration of a multi-directional casting machine for a vehicle frame configured in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure
View attachment 484179

FIG. 2 is an illustration of a multi-directional casting machine for a vehicle frame configured in accordance with another embodiment of the present disclosure.
View attachment 484180

FIG. 6 is an illustration of an example method of casting a vehicle frame configured in accordance with an embodiment of the present disclosure.
View attachment 484181

Look for Cyber v2.0 production to commence sometime in 2023 (or shortly after Tri-motor Cybertruck). Tesla is moving forward with their vision for "the machine that builds the machine". That new architechture will manufacture die-cast stainless-steel metal-foam million-mile uni-body cars/trucks in huge volumes, and at an unmatched low per-unit cost.

"Economical. Durable. Intelligent. Connected." Tesla's unbeatable combination of attributes will change the world forever, no going back. Consumers will demand nothing less, indeed some will also insist upon "Fast". WE GOT THIS.

TL;dr Cyber v2.0 is: Stamping | Body | Paint | Die Casting | General Assembly

Cheers!

P.S. If Tesla acquires companies like Havel Metal Foam in Brandenburg, that'll be a tell.

Not sure that's possible, the cold-rolling of stainless steel into sheets changes the crystalline structure (it's a form of steel work-hardening), it hardens and smooths the surface:

View attachment 484182​

Casting is fine if you are creating a primarily load-bearing structure, such as part of the frame, but the extra hardness (scratch and corrosion resistance) is a key physical property for an exoskeleton.

A cast steel surface is also fundamentally rough and cannot normally be a customer facing surface - and finishing it the hard way (polishing it) is much, much slower and more expensive than cold-rolling.

I believe the Cybertruck manufacturing technology is fundamentally cold-rolled metal sheet based, with cutting/scoring and folding being the primary forming methods - plus some welding. (Even metallic screws are problematic: these types of stainless steel sheets take a lot of effort to drill through.)

 

[Lessmog]

In fact, come to think of it, aren't the landing legs of Falcon rockets made of foamed Al? ISTR that one of the first landing attempts was so hard that the foam compressed but held up the load. Just needed a new set.

 

[Fact Checking]

Pre-market $337

Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

China news perhaps?

As @cyclingthealps pointed it out below it's probably the news that Japan's biggest pension fund stopped lending to short sellers.

 

[Pezpunk]

Indeed, the lawsuit is a personal one involving Musk and not Tesla at all. If anything, there is a tiny relationship with SpaceX, since they were to build the proposed rescue vehicle. Still, only Musk could be forced to compensate for libel.

Meanwhile, this will be a jury trial. Selection begins tomorrow, and the judge plans to likely disallow anyone with prejudices against billionaires or prejudices against people who visit or live in Thailand. That procedure may be time consuming.

anyone who thinks it won’t affect the stock price is delusionally myopic about how Wall Street treats TSLA.

 

[cyclingthealps]

Does anyone have any idea what is driving the TSLA price action in the premarket? After-market volume yesterday was higher than usual with 85K shares traded, and it drove the price down to around $333.

There's no big macro action, and there's no TSLA news on the market news feeds I have access to.

China news perhaps?

Maybe Elon went to Japan to talk with the world biggest pension fund to stop lending shares for short sellers.

 

[KarenRei]

Do you think it's true there is serious pent-up US demand?

Well, they pent up the vast majority of demand in the first part of the quarter, in order to export to Europe. But I expect they'll work through most to all of the list this quarter. The US and Netherlands should be their top priority markets this quarter for deliveries, due to tax reasons.

Cybertruck will be v1.0 of Tesla's new approach to vehicle manufacturing. For the next generation of Tesla manufacturing, let's look at the following, excerpted from US Patent: (US20190217380) MULTI-DIRECTIONAL UNIBODY CASTING MACHINE FOR A VEHICLE FRAME AND ASSOCIATED METHODS

Cybertruck has been explicitly stated to be made from folded full-hard 30x stainless sheet - not cast.

 

[Lycanthrope]

I wonder which way we’ll go today. Macros looking ok, with futures slightly up.

Hard to tell how this stupid pedo trial will influence. Sure it has nothing to do with Tesla, but I only see negatives coming from it.

in any case, I’ve just transferred €10k to my trading account and I’ll be looking to add at $330 during the MMD

Goddammit, money didn't arrive in time to catch the pre-market dip. I set a $330 buy order for 33, but well, never made it... And stupid me, I set it as GTC, so now I can't buy in pre-market today as the money is reserved

Think the SP is heading up, maybe this stupid trial might put some downward pressure, especially is Elon loses, but I'm really unsure what the impact might be.