Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
SP is gonna blow anyday, hunch. Can't hold back the +++ rumors and indicators on all fronts.

OT,
New CyberMarkets:
  • Snow Plow market
  • Train Track clearing
  • Better eMPG
  • Deer Shield
Picture1.png
 
@PBRStreetGang7

From the Tweet:

"North America: Thousands of cars are leaving the intermodal facility in Birmingham, Alabama, for destinations on the east coast of the United States. $TSLA"

I didn't know about the intermodal in Birmingham. Can anyone provide more information about that. Are cars being transported by rail to that location? In the past three weeks I seen trucks loaded with Teslas on I-85 going north from Atlanta. That didn't make sense to me then, but now it does if east coast deliveries go through Alabama.
 
The 17% market share projection under discussion was Wood's best-case scenario (6% is their bear case).

I did think that it was interesting that she said that their previous bull position still had Tesla losing a significant part of that 17% share, BUT they are now re-evaluating this. IMO, with the quite noticeable lack of real competition for Tesla's EV's, and nothing noteworthy on the radar ahead, she can't help but think that the 17% might stand for quite a bit longer.

edit: ooops, JustMe beat me to it.
 
So Market Watch has their usual line up of headlines where they are trying to make hay about "the dog ate my homework" accident. So I appreciated this one's title:

Self-driving Tesla slams into a cop car — and the driver blames his dog

Naturally, the article itself leads with a lie (an oft-repeated one about Musk promising full self driving by the end of this year) but I like the headline.

Self-driving Tesla slams into a cop car — and the driver blames his dog
 
To be clear, Analog Andrew's point wasn't that Toyota or VW had such a huge market share, it was that the leading automaker today has to share the market with so many competitors that no one has 17% market share (and thus little Tesla shouldn't dream so big).

But it was a bad point for more than one reason. The 17% market share projection under discussion was Wood's best-case scenario (6% is their bear case). It's only natural that the winners and losers will change when you have the kind of disruption EV's are bringing to global vehicle manufacturers. Probably the most comparable time was when the motive force switched from horses/mules to gasoline engines. You can bet the number one carriage maker did not retain their market share. Ford had 60% market share with its Model T and horse-drawn carriages essentially stopped selling (carriage makers were installing engines or going out of business). 60% market share! It was only after decades of growing the ICE vehicle market that Ford's market share dropped to more "normal" levels.

So, no, 17% market share is not silly as Andrew was trying to imply. And 6% market share would still be tremendous growth and justify the price today.

Some more info on this subject:

https://history.stackexchange.com/a/46867

U.S. Automobile Production Figures - Wikipedia
 
  • Informative
Reactions: AZRI11
Just heard on NPR that Tesla car streaming will require subscription, unless bought before June 30th 2018. (OK, it's been out for 2 days... sorry if covered already.) I'm grandfathered in, free TV for life! Tesla starts charging $10 a month for its 'premium connectivity' features - Electrek

Here comes yet another software side of revenue. $120x1M=$120M annually. Not too shabby! The car is practically useless without this service. IMHO, everyone will sign up that needs to for the service.
 
IMO - the line of thinking goes: if you're building EV cars that are 20x more productive than ICE cars...where does the revenue go?

Software and services w/ mostly service jobs and profit.

ICE cars are being sold as these giant mechanized machines w/ no ability to improve after sale w/ significant upkeep for centuries in a heavily saturated market. So, the value and price is all encompassed in the sale of the vehicle. EV's just don't need that, can improve post-sale, can sell more post-sale (e.g. Enhanced Connectivity), are more productive/efficient, and last longer. I just don't see how the value of this company won't be higher as long as the EV market is proven sustainable and is considered a growth industry.
Not to mention Tesla's solar, self driving, and battery storage businesses. Any one of those has a potential to be a Toyota sized company on it's own.
 
I don't think so, nothing is sticking out from the surface far enough to be a mirror, plus I'm pretty sure manufacturer prototypes don't need to meet all regulations.

I don't see any mirrors here:
ELOdJMWVUAAOtdX.jpg


I'm fully expecting the Trimotor Cybertruck I take deliver of ASAP will have mirrors (and they will look angular and badass) and it will also have appropriate cameras so I can remove the mirrors when they are no longer mandated!
 

Got to say this is one of the weaker Kathy interviews. You can't try to explain your bear case that Tesla will only sell cars but then end with Tesla has other moats like energy and AI. She should have explained more about vertical integration, high margins, no dealers, etc etc to show them why Tesla can have a market cap higher than Toyota EVEN though Tesla will move less cars than Toyota. Hell the fact that Tesla will own all the "gas stations" that Toyota doesn't is another revenue generator(even though Tesla said it's not going to be but whatever, they can change their minds).
 
I did think that it was interesting that she said that their previous bull position still had Tesla losing a significant part of that 17% share, BUT they are now re-evaluating this. IMO, with the quite noticeable lack of real competition for Tesla's EV's, and nothing noteworthy on the radar ahead, she can't help but think that the 17% might stand for quite a bit longer.

edit: ooops, JustMe beat me to it.
Even bulls don't realize the permanent advantages Tesla has.

Yes, competitors will be able to produce models approaching the performance of Tesla's offerings. That's inevitable in the Information Age. What they won't in any way be able to do is produce them at scale. The dreadful irony they're going to have to realize is that pushing TSLA to get leaner has forced Tesla as a manufacturer to approach absolute efficiency. Very very few legacy carmakers can achieve anything close to moderate efficiency.

GM announcing a partnership with LG is a good step, but they have dealerships, unions, legacy costs.....way too many headwinds to competitiveness on quality and price. Physically impossible for them to compete. Perhaps a small handful will successfully transition. I actually see the "5 year head start" we keep citing is more like 6 or 7 now, and the real competition will come from startups that don't yet exist.
 
Spreading "FUD" means speading fear, uncertainty and doubt. Which is exactly what I call it when someone picks a story about a Tesla crashing in the wee morning hours and tries to say this is going to put a real damper on any TSLA stock rally. Nobody cares about a single car crash like that so I stand by my comments.

squirrel just stop meme.jpg
 
Just heard on NPR that Tesla car streaming will require subscription, unless bought before June 30th 2018. (OK, it's been out for 2 days... sorry if covered already.) I'm grandfathered in, free TV for life! Tesla starts charging $10 a month for its 'premium connectivity' features - Electrek

Here comes yet another software side of revenue. $120x1M=$120M annually. Not too shabby! The car is practically useless without this service. IMHO, everyone will sign up that needs to for the service.

Tesla does need to pay cellular providers though, it's not pure profit.
Edit: Ack @Swampgator correctly points out to me that it is $120 a year more than they were getting, so it is a pure bottom line increase, even if they were still net negative on connectivity.
 
Last edited:
Is it just me or does every Tesla vehicle look bizarre on a stage and then super-amazing in the wild? They need to start doing reveals with much more background to add perspective. That truck in traffic almost looks like something very useful that I would buy, not the doorstop I saw on the livefeed reveal. Same with M3 in the wild.
 
It has not been confirmed by Tesla that the car was actually on Autopilot. Seems wrong to put that in the title when the body includes

Over the years, Tesla continues to have a problem when people would crash their cars and the media would blame it on Autopilot, even though there was no independent data supporting that claim.

I fully expect that it was in autopilot. And while reaching back to mess with his dog, he bumped the wheel and knocked it out of Autopilot.

I'd love for Tesla to put up a "Was It In Autopilot?" site for the press, where they can punch in an accident date and location, and Tesla will instantly tell them if there was an accident registered there, whether the vehicle was in Autopilot at any point shortly before the crash, whether it had been disengaged before the crash, whether their data suggests that the Tesla was at fault in the accident, and whether there's been an official police report filed (and if so, what its conclusions were).

They might need to update their privacy agreement, but they wouldn't need to include any personal information in their reports.
 
Last edited:
Just a quick NL+NO+SP update... As of late last week, this quarter has surpassed the final delivery total for each quarter in 2018 for these three countries, and this before the EoQ rush really gets into high gear.

2019 Q4 is currently sitting 68% higher than the highest prior quarter for NL+NO+SP, which was Q3 of this year. Should make for an interesting finish to the year. Q3 ended at 12,349 for these 3 countries. If Q4 were to maintain that 68% lead, it would end with 20,800 deliveries just to these 3 countries.

Usual caveats: This is just these 3 countries, deliveries here could be starving deliveries in other countries, past performance is not an indicator of future results, don't count chickens, eat your Wheaties, etc.

View attachment 486420

For a range of other EU countries Q4 data points are available for days 31 and 61 (also for '18) - I don't have them handy, but someone might.

PS. Well, here is a couple:
Sweden 2019:
November S/3/X: 75/104/51
October S/3/X: 15/47/21 (yes, more X than S),
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

Denmark 2019:
November S/3/X: 33/82/13
October S/3/X: 6/23/4,
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable