Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mad@gascar]

Self-Proclaimed 'Free-Market Purists' Dismiss Elon Musk at Their Peril

“Know your customer” is all about rushing the present into the future. It’s primitive stuff.
...
Musk is no imitator. Not even close. He’s an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs do things that no one expects, and that most think kind of ridiculous. While nobody expected Musk’s vision for truck of the future, Musk plainly expected the criticism that came his way. Thank goodness for people like him.
...
As opposed to “knowing their customers,” entrepreneurs like Musk lead them.
...
Musk adds that “I do zero market research whatsoever.” Rather than trying to provide us the present in the present, Musk aims to rush the future into the present. It’s people like him who make the world go ‘round.

 

[jerry33]

Self-Proclaimed 'Free-Market Purists' Dismiss Elon Musk at Their Peril

“Know your customer” is all about rushing the present into the future. It’s primitive stuff.
...
Musk is no imitator. Not even close. He’s an entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs do things that no one expects, and that most think kind of ridiculous. While nobody expected Musk’s vision for truck of the future, Musk plainly expected the criticism that came his way. Thank goodness for people like him.
...
As opposed to “knowing their customers,” entrepreneurs like Musk lead them.
...
Musk adds that “I do zero market research whatsoever.” Rather than trying to provide us the present in the present, Musk aims to rush the future into the present. It’s people like him who make the world go ‘round.

Market research is a lot like consulting. The successful research firm first figures out what the CEO or project lead really wants, and then designs a study that gives it to them. Even in the few cases where that's not the formula, consumers are pretty bad at knowing what they really want next, until some enterprising soul tells them.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Tesla driver cited with 'reckless driving' after crashing into police car while on Autopilot - Electrek
OK, this is exactly the kind of headline needed to counter FUD. Electrek and I are back together again. Feels good

A few weeks back when some statistics were released to claim driving while on Autopilot was 8 times safer than driving without AP, a member(s) posted and detailed how this figure was arrived at using a number of non apples to apples circumstances. My recollection (inexact) was that taking all these into consideration AP was in fact significantly safer but not nearly 8 times vs non AP.

Assuming I've got this mostly right, IMO Tesla should rework the latest statistics, adjusting for all these circumstances and where one is not clear either way, to include/exclude to err on the side of understating how many fewer accidents occur during miles driven with AP.
The purpose being to show statistically Tesla drivers are at least 2 - 3 times safer with AP (highway driving). Then pro Tesla media can confidently spread the the word that AP (in addition to other benefits) greatly reduces your likelihood of an accident. Down the line Tesla insurance could offer reduced rates to those who use AP on majority of highway driving due to fewer accidents. That would benefit TCO and make the AP safety claims even more convincing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/shocked-strategist-says-sell-tesla-i-dont-give-a-toss-if-he-is-a-visionary-2019-12-09?mod=home-page


‘I don’t want to hold an investment in a firm run by someone like Elon Musk. The next 10 years are not going to be about Unicorn Hype — it will be back to fundamentals.’

That’s the bearish view on the future of Tesla TSLA, +1.46% held by Bill Blain, strategist at London-based Shard Capital. “Musk is a product of our age. Entitled, arrogant, unbelievably rich and powerful, he reckons normal rules don’t apply to him,” he wrote of the car maker’s chief executive in a note Monday.

“Don’t tell me he was found innocent in court last week and therefore has no case to answer,” he wrote. “I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary, a great engineer, or whatever baloney he claims. In my opinion, such a man is not fit to run a major firm and is not deserving of our respect.”

 

[VValleyEV]

I guess I didn't read anything in that statement that would indicate using rail to supply the east coast. Rail was discussed on this forum in the past and the consensus was that it was too slow and unreliable. That was maybe in the context of shipping to the east coast to load ships and avoid the time (and expense?) necessary to go through the canal.

A friend who works for one of the USA railroads said they used to transport Tesla cars, but could not meet Tesla’s demand for 0% damage in shipment. So I am interested in whether rail shipments have in fact resumed, if so with what railroads, and under what terms?

 

[AlMc]

The Moronic Septic Fossil is back writing on SA

Yeah, old ****-face is back on Twitter too.

I had no time for him before so it matters very little that he is back. Met him at the SEC vs Elon hearing. No worries for Tesla/TSLA and EM IMO.

 

[JustMe]

I am not so sure Cathie Woods would agree.

At 4m30s, Woods says that Ark believes that in 2024 (i.e. for their 5-year forecast) total EV sales will be 37M units. She elaborates that this would be more than a third of total auto sales - which is consistent with current, actual annual total auto sales on the order of 100M, so I think she did not misspeak.

So 17% of that would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 6.3M cars. Starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would need an annual growth in deliveries of 77% to deliver that many cars in 2024.

Her old bull case of 11% would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 4.1M cars. Starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would need an annual growth in deliveries of just over 62% to deliver that many cars in 2024.

Her bear case at 6% would imply the belief that in 2024 Tesla sells 2.2M cars, which Tesla would achieve with an annual delivery growth of close to 44%.

There has been assumptions elsewhere of an annual delivery growth of 50%. Over 5 years, and starting from 360k in 2019 Tesla would in 2024 sell 2.74M cars, corresponding to 7.5% of a 37M unit market.

I would say that her bear and bull cases of Tesla's market share in 5 years are very optimistic, but not entirely unrealistic.

If the 37M forecast is correct, then an annual growth of more than 77% would be required for the next 5 years in order for Tesla to capture more than its current market share, something I find hard to imagine.

One other way to think of this is, in order for Tesla to reach 17% share of the global auto market, their auto sales will have to double five times over.

2019 Tesla 360k/WW total 77,000k ~0.5%

It’s conceivable, but it will mean going very heavily into new market segments like ~$20-25k, broader range of models, and widespread deployment of charging options that dwarf the supercharger network. (By someone)

 

[Lessmog]

‘Shocked’ strategist says sell Tesla — ‘I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary’


‘I don’t want to hold an investment in a firm run by someone like Elon Musk. The next 10 years are not going to be about Unicorn Hype — it will be back to fundamentals.’

That’s the bearish view on the future of Tesla TSLA, +1.46% held by Bill Blain, strategist at London-based Shard Capital. “Musk is a product of our age. Entitled, arrogant, unbelievably rich and powerful, he reckons normal rules don’t apply to him,” he wrote of the car maker’s chief executive in a note Monday.

“Don’t tell me he was found innocent in court last week and therefore has no case to answer,” he wrote. “I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary, a great engineer, or whatever baloney he claims. In my opinion, such a man is not fit to run a major firm and is not deserving of our respect.”

My commiserations in advance for Mr Chillblain. He is gonna hurt.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is it just me or does every Tesla vehicle look bizarre on a stage and then super-amazing in the wild? They need to start doing reveals with much more background to add perspective. That truck in traffic almost looks like something very useful that I would buy, not the doorstop I saw on the livefeed reveal. Same with M3 in the wild.

Completely agree! And CyberTruck reveal had reflections from the crowd (or something) which made it look dirty with uneven lighting. Maybe EM just likes to see people's jaws drop in shock - intentionally obtuse.

 

[Skryll]

‘Shocked’ strategist says sell Tesla — ‘I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary’

“I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary, a great engineer, or whatever baloney he claims. In my opinion, such a man is not fit to run a major firm and is not deserving of our respect.”

Sounds butt-hurt. Maybe its the strategist that needs to find a new profession ?

 

[RFernatt]

Market research is a lot like consulting. The successful research firm first figures out what the CEO or project lead really wants, and then designs a study that gives it to them. Even in the few cases where that's not the formula, consumers are pretty bad at knowing what they really want next, until some enterprising soul tells them.

IIRC, Iacocca wanted to do the minivan at Ford. Ford execs said that their focus groups with customers said there was no market for such a product. Iacocca went to Chrysler and created the Caravan and the rest is history. It's true that customers don't always know what they want, especially if it is outside the familiar, until someone makes it for them and they can experience it and realize that it fills a need/desire.

 

[sundaymorning]

Sounds butt-hurt. Maybe its the strategist that needs to find a new profession ?

He sounds like a guy who got ran over from being short TSLA and was hoping that the pedo trial would go the other way. Oops.

He probably went through a melt down after the verdict cleared Elon and started to write his negative assessment.

“I don’t give a toss” who uses these foul language when they’re cool and collective? And he expects the public to take him seriously? No wonder we’re up $3.5 today, the shorts are having a meltdown before our eyes.

 

[SOULPEDL]

$10/mo for unlimited(?) cell data?!

I don't think you can buy this from anybody else at this rate, can you? Especially, I believe in Canada, EU this costs even more...

I think Tesla will still be losing money on this at $10/mo.

Maybe not as full cost for a regular phone has to deal with customers/support, meanwhile it seems Tesla would own that issue front to back. Great advertising if they actually name the carrier someday (Verizon). The carrier is just there for the circuits which are probably cheap compared to phone support and marketing costs.

Plus, this measly $10 is just a starting point for service and feature sales IMO. And Netflix and YouTubeTV right now are probably LOVING this free marketing and position. Everyone will want screentime, willing to give it for free to associate with the Tesla brand and clientele. All billable.

 

[Mike Smith]

UBS Suspends Bearish Tesla (TSLA) Rating Amid SEC Investigation Rumors

 

[Ratanpara]

UBS Suspends Bearish Tesla (TSLA) Rating Amid SEC Investigation Rumors

Ever wonder why UBS never recovered from 2007-08 banking sector melt down, unethical business practices will lead to poor performance or failure in long run.

 

[AlMc]

‘Shocked’ strategist says sell Tesla — ‘I don’t give a toss if he is a visionary’

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment..........Don't hold your breath Bill waiting for that

 

[M3Rider]

Great advertising if they actually name the carrier someday (Verizon).

Tesla and AT&T Enter Multi-Year Exclusive Agreement to Connect Current and Future Models in North America | AT&T

 

[MP3Mike]

UBS Suspends Bearish Tesla (TSLA) Rating Amid SEC Investigation Rumors

And now you know — the rest of the story.

 

[Singuy]

There hasn't been that many bad news lately. Elon won the court case, Cybertruck is preordering like gangbusters, GF3 is delivering cars..nothing but one good news after another. The manipulators need something and I'm just saying they finally got something. A 5% rally now turned into a 1% rally, who knows. Short term we always see exaggerated drops from stupid news.

Like a mothe-Fing clairvoyant. Anthony and I should get married.

 

[nativewolf]

A few weeks back when some statistics were released to claim driving while on Autopilot was 8 times safer than driving without AP, a member(s) posted and detailed how this figure was arrived at using a number of non apples to apples circumstances. My recollection (inexact) was that taking all these into consideration AP was in fact significantly safer but not nearly 8 times vs non AP.

Assuming I've got this mostly right, IMO Tesla should rework the latest statistics, adjusting for all these circumstances and where one is not clear either way, to include/exclude to err on the side of understating how many fewer accidents occur during miles driven with AP.
The purpose being to show statistically Tesla drivers are at least 2 - 3 times safer with AP (highway driving). Then pro Tesla media can confidently spread the the word that AP (in addition to other benefits) greatly reduces your likelihood of an accident. Down the line Tesla insurance could offer reduced rates to those who use AP on majority of highway driving due to fewer accidents. That would benefit TCO and make the AP safety claims even more convincing.

It is a new world marketing trick, making outrageous claims so people will agree that they are actually really good. Ok, so no 8x safer...just 3x safer. Whooopppie...everyone agrees it is 3x safer. Like throwing a steel ball at a window that sort of breaks ...lots of publicity. Like trump claiming lowest unemployement ever. Same ol. same ol. I am getting tired of it but it is what it is.