Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

In fact, around that time didn't Musk say something like "We don't deserve a price this high"?

You got your 'facts' mixed up. Elon said that to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval at the National Governors Association summer meeting on Sat, July 15, 2017 (there's video on Youtube if you'd like).

Recall in July 2017, the Model 3 rampup had not yet begun, Tesla was just beginning to understand the shortcomings of the 3rd Party battery pack assembly machine they (over)paid for, and 'flufferbot' was a failure 6 months in the future.

Closing SP on Fri, Jul 14, 2017? $327.78 on 5.6M shares traded. Tesla's revenues for 2017Q2 was $10.067B. So yeah, Elon was right, $327/share was overvalued then.

Compare that to Tesla revenue of $24.420B in 2019Q3 (2.4x), and that TSLA was again at $327/share just 8 trading days ago. 2 yrs, 5 mths later that's nolonger 'overvalued'.

The other stuff you 'remembered'? More likely you let some TSLAQ creep in. Careful wid dem faux facts!

Cheers!

 

[DragonWatch]

Actually, he has said more than that. He said, not only does Tesla not need the Federal Tax Credits, they were, overall, a net negative for Tesla. And that was when buyers were still getting $7500 if I recall correctly. He said, if it were up to him, he would eliminate all tax credits.

I have always been alone in this world. Just installed solar panels knowing full well I would no longer benefit from NetMetering. Did catch the last of the Fed incentive before it declines

While for most, it does not pencil-in; I will ultimately pay $100 less per month for electricity in an all electric home for as long as I own the house ~ probably death. This is all despite the fact I live in the state of Washington and I have some ~ few remaining really, really tall pine trees obstructing the sun. The problem with pine trees I equate to my old artillery math formula dealing with tube drupe. While sounding sexist ~ it is an actual formula (cannot for the life of me remember it now ~ not even while I was in school). NOTE: when an artillery cannon is fired for long periods of time it heats up and will over time drupe. This affect must be calculated into hitting the correct target. I stuck with missiles and rockets myself

If you live for money alone; nothing pencils-in ~ if you live life flying under the radar ~ well here I am

 

[StealthP3D]

Another dilemma solved. What to do with my TSLA profits:

the cybunker is an off-grid shelter garage designed to house tesla's cybertruck

 

[NakedLong]

Did someone buy 6 M shares at 12:55?? Or is Yahoo messed up?

View attachment 489286

Doesn't show up on other sites...

 

[StealthP3D]

You got your 'facts' mixed up. Elon said that to Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval at the National Governors Association summer meeting on Sat, July 15, 2017 (there's video on Youtube if you'd like).

Recall in July 2017, the Model 3 rampup had not yet begun, Tesla was just beginning to understand the shortcomings of the 3rd Party battery pack assembly machine they (over)paid for, and 'flufferbot' was a failure 6 months in the future.

Closing SP on Fri, Jul 14, 2017? $327.78 on 5.6M shares traded. Tesla's revenues for 2017Q2 was $10.067B. So yeah, Elon was right, $327/share was overvalued then.

Compare that to Tesla revenue of $24.420B in 2019Q3 (2.4x), and that TSLA was again at $327/share just 8 trading days ago. 2 yrs, 5 mths later that's nolonger 'overvalued'.

The other stuff you 'remembered'? More likely you let some TSLAQ creep in. Careful wid dem faux facts!

Cheers!

Ummm...yeah, so the full $7500 tax credit was still in effect. So...I'm confused. Exactly what part of my recall do you take exception to?

 

[ggies07]

So as I'm one of the lucky ones where Tesla becomes infused in almost every aspect of my life, this happened:

I'm watching the Star Wars trailer again to prepare for seeing the movie on Saturday and the beginning dialog in it fits perfectly with most of us investors/owners who have found this company and understand what it means to the world. We as investors/owners must never give up hope as it faces the challenges it must....

"It's...an instinct. A feeling. The force brought us together (TMC). We're not alone (we come together to share info). Good people will fight if we lead them (Fighting FUD). People keep telling me they know me....no one does (WS keeps telling us Tesla will fail and we don't know what we are talking about). Confronting fear....it's the destiny of a Jedi (fear of change). The force will be with you.....always."

 

[MichaelP90DL]

Yes, indeed ... I've removed that reference from my comment, it wasn't part of the main argument anyway.

Say hi to your cute cat for me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Short OT anecdote.

I'm just a dumb aerospace engineer, but I peripherally interact with smart planetary geologists. At a Christmas party years ago I struck up a conversation with one who was investigating alternate K-T Boundary (dinosaur killer) hypotheses (the Chicxulub impact crater had just been discovered). I had just happened to skim a SciAm article on the subject that mentioned the "Deccan Traps" (ancient volcanic region in India). So, I threw out "Oh, so you're probably interested in the Deccan Traps." He was dumbfounded, as that was exactly what he was researching.

So, never underestimate the potential of throwing out a phrase to make you look smart (especially after the egg nog).

Unfortunately, the phrases I come up with after a few drinks tend to get me reported to management...

 

[Mike Smith]

Not getting a pullback on the negative EV credit news is devastating for the shorts. The odds of this being a quadruple top at 380 are now very low. The old range was 180-380, so the new range will be 380-580.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm surprised it's not dropping now that it's out that the EV subsidy extension for the 200K+ club failed to pass.

Good fundamentals drove the recent rally(s), not gimmick news.

Although I do think if it had been adopted then we'd be scratching $400 now, rather than treading water.

 

[wipster]

Obviously, he's been sneaking his wife's Tesla out for impromptu joyrides. You can guess it's the Performance version. He feels like a kid again! I thought the money couldn't increase happiness. Then I discovered Tesla!

I still don't trust him though... I seem to think he's waiting for something to go wrong so he can complain about service or something like that. Damn I'm getting cynical in my old age.

 

[Fact Checking]

How did you find this particular buy?

By randomly scanning the options chain?

Or was it just an anomaly in the Option Chain at that expiration where the premium was just crazy lower for that one strike price than the next higher or lower, or was the premium in line with others but certain Greeks made it a much better buy for some reason?

Thanks again. Wish I'd bought then, but you - and a few others posting here - motivated me to learn more about options.

All the out of the money options were cheap back then, and lower strike price ones generated even higher returns. Individual option chains are rarely mispriced compared to the other ones.

But if your bull thesis materializes before expiry then in hindsight pretty much every option contract was mispriced.

 

[printf42]

ALRIGHT

Which one of you sold 6.9m worth of $420 puts that expire on 6/19?

View attachment 489238

Perfect triangle...

 

[Nocturnal]

I still don't trust him though... I seem to think he's waiting for something to go wrong so we can complain about service or something like that. Damn I'm getting cynical in my old age.

His segment was full on fan boyish. Seemed genuine as he still took a few subtle digs at Elon's.

 

[Cherry Wine]

All the out of the money options were cheap back then, and lower strike price ones generated even higher returns. Individual option chains are rarely mispriced compared to the other ones.

But if your bull thesis materializes before expiry then in hindsight pretty much every option contract was mispriced.

Indeed. I had purchased a Jan'20 $300 call back in January 2019 for ~$5,600. Back then, it seemed a fairly conservative bet. The lowest I can personally recall that option trading was approximately $270 over the summer. I had written it off as likely a total loss (though I was still writing covered calls against it to try and negate some of the losses). It is now trading at ~$8,000.

Not to disparage the original suggestion, but one could have pointed to almost any option between June-September and now look like an oracle. What is my point? To issue a cautionary reminder that options are ridiculously volatile, and that today's grand slam could quickly become tomorrow's strikeout.

 

[kengchang]

Don't think this was posted

 

[jerry33]

As I remember, Elon suggested previously that that would give a not-insignificant boost to aerodynamics(and, therefore, range)

This has been known for at least forty years. Each side mirror takes at least one hp to push through at 55 mph. More like four hp at 80.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's daily volume.

Agreed, but there was a humungous green spike, I saw it too, and when you hovered on it you got the 6M

So yeah, Yahoo chart is bolloxed.

 

[mad474]

Perfect triangle...

So it wasn't him?
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[wipster]

I have always been alone in this world. Just installed solar panels knowing full well I would no longer benefit from NetMetering. Did catch the last of the Fed incentive before it declines

While for most, it does not pencil-in; I will ultimately pay $100 less per month for electricity in an all electric home for as long as I own the house ~ probably death. This is all despite the fact I live in the state of Washington and I have some ~ few remaining really, really tall pine trees obstructing the sun. The problem with pine trees I equate to my old artillery math formula dealing with tube drupe. While sounding sexist ~ it is an actual formula (cannot for the life of me remember it now ~ not even while I was in school). NOTE: when an artillery cannon is fired for long periods of time it heats up and will over time drupe. This affect must be calculated into hitting the correct target. I stuck with missiles and rockets myself

If you live for money alone; nothing pencils-in ~ if you live life flying under the radar ~ well here I am

Thanks for the info my friend. Do you live near Tacoma? Or in the middle of the state?