Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

If this is from Bloomberg, then so close to the end of the quarter this is a clear attempt to both manipulate the TSLA share price and to hurt Tesla demand in a critical phase of the sales period. If they knew or should have known that these were false claims then these are potential actionable crimes committed by Bloomberg journalists: securities fraud and also tortious interference with Tesla's business.

I wonder what happens to Elon's talk with Michael Bloomberg that is suppose to happen according to this year's shareholder meeting?

 

[Mike Smith]

Here's the Bloomberg reporter describing her 'scoop'.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

She doesn't explain in any way who her sources are. I guess Bloomberg figures it's OK to report that sources have told them something so long as they don't claim that it's actually true, which she doesn't.

 

[SteveG3]

Perhaps some here would also like to tweet Tom and encourage him to look into this, and, possibly try to clean up the mess this story could create before it gets much further. I've found him to be honest, fair, thorough, and appreciative of Tesla.

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@tsrandall

 

[SteveG3]

I wonder what happens to Elon's talk with Michael Bloomberg that is suppose to happen according to this year's shareholder meeting?

Elon: Mike, this is flagrant. Let's get this straightened out with an apology, and clean up whatever's going on at Bloomberg that leads to these kinds of stories, repeatedly. You do want people to take you seriously when you're out campaigning as the most dedicated to responding to climate change, right?

 

[Causalien]

Elon: Mike, this is flagrant. Let's get this straightened out with an apology, and clean up whatever's going on at Bloomberg that leads to these kinds of stories, repeatedly. You do want people to take you seriously when you're out campaigning as the most dedicated to responding to climate change, right?

Let's step back a sec and go the other way for conspiracy theory.

What if, Elon and bloomberg has a good relationship and he uses their publishing house as a eay to gauge market and customer rraction to upcoming strategies?

 

[SteveG3]

Let's step back a sec and go the other way for conspiracy theory.

What if, Elon and bloomberg has a good relationship and he uses their publishing house as a eay to gauge market and customer rraction to upcoming strategies?

Tesla has already been through multiple uproars in China re steep, abrupt, pricing discounts from those who’d bought cars earlier. No research needed, it does considerable brand/goodwill/demand damage.

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla's EU CO2 ZEV pool membership has just roughly quadrupled in value:

Fiat Chrysler Agrees Binding Merger With Peugeot Maker to Create Auto Giant (The Wall Street Journal)
​

The reason is that PSA's European revenues are about three times that of FCA:

So to counter-act the billions of Euros per year CO2 penalties that PSA-FCA is facing, Tesla can put 3x-4x as many cars into the pool without exhausting their CO2 penalty reduction utility.

Here are the more detailed estimates by @Prunesquallor:

These are the latest numbers I could find:
CO2 emissions from new passenger cars in the European Union: Car manufacturers’ performance in 2018 | International Council on Clean Transportation
View attachment 471586
These are interesting for several reasons:
1) They indicate the pooling information (e.g., FCA-Tesla!).
2) The market share indicates that combining PSA and FCA would nearly quadruple the size of the pool!
3) FCA and PSA both have gotten considerably WORSE in CO2 emissions from 2017-2018 (+5 and +7 g/km)
4) PSA-Opel is in somewhat better shape than FCA: 20% CO2 reduction required vs 24%.

If I have time in the next several days, I try to dust off my ZEV credit/super-credit model and see what an FCA/PSA/Tesla pool might look like as far as value of ZEVs to penalty reduction.

Maybe this is one of the hidden pieces of information, known to big institutional investors, that supports this week's very bullish TSLA price action?

 

[cyclingthealps]

Perhaps some here would also like to tweet Tom and encourage him to look into this, and, possibly try to clean up the mess this story could create before it gets much further. I've found him to be honest, fair, thorough, and appreciative of Tesla.

View attachment 489509

Login on Twitter

@tsrandall

This actually makes fun.

Dennis Wegewijs on Twitter

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla's EU CO2 ZEV pool membership has just roughly quadrupled in value:

Fiat Chrysler Agrees Binding Merger With Peugeot Maker to Create Auto Giant (The Wall Street Journal)
​

The reason is that PSA's European revenues are about three times that of FCA:

So to counter-act the billions of Euros per year CO2 penalties that PSA-FCA is facing, Tesla can put 3x-4x as many cars into the pool without exhausting their CO2 penalty reduction utility.

Here are the more detailed estimates by @Prunesquallor:



Maybe this is one of the hidden pieces of information that supports this week's very bullish TSLA price action?

thanks for posting this.

could be pretty significant.

I might be missing something on this, but, isn’t it also quite possible that with these rules about to come into effect Peugeot already has a plan in place?

 

[SteveG3]

This actually makes fun.

Dennis Wegewijs on Twitter

View attachment 489518

good to see, but, let’s keep things straight. Tom had nothing to do with the Bloomberg China story as far as we know. It was Tom’s track record of journalistic quality and integrity that prompted me to suggest our asking for his becoming involved to help clean things up. Let’s not do an “Unsworth” and throw shade at someone whose done no damage and may help. We don’t have a surplus of people in the media being fair, much less helpful, to Tesla : )

 

[cyclingthealps]

good to see, but, let’s keep things straight. Tom had nothing to do with the Bloomberg China story as far as we know. It was Tom’s track record of journalistic quality and integrity that prompted me to suggest our asking for his becoming involved to help. Let’s not do an “Unsworth” and throw shade at someone whose done no damage and may help : )

Good point!

 

[AlexS]

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

"20% price drop" fake news by Bloomberg, yet again.

Tesla China has officially responded:
Never heard of such a thing. Please follow the information on our official website.​

I wish Tesla sue bloomberg over that hit piece.

 

[Fact Checking]

I might be missing something on this, but, isn’t it also quite possible that with these rules about to come into effect Peugeot already has a plan in place?

Both FCA and Peugeot have EV "plans" - but the time horizon of the introduction of competitive EVs is 2021 at the earliest. Until then the CO2 penalties are real and cost billions per quarter for PSA-FCA, which penalty Tesla can reduce here and now. I'd wait for @Prunesquallor to make a precise calculation, but I think the combined PSA-FCA ZEV pool now has a capacity of up to over a hundred thousand Teslas per quarter? The per sold car gains for Tesla should be similar.

ICE OEMs are good at scaling up, but they are really bad at innovating and moving quickly, especially in an industry they know very little about (high-tech), so I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for FCA or PSA to sell ~400k EVs per year anytime soon.

 

[SteveG3]

I wish Tesla sue bloomberg over that hit piece.

If this was a fake source that Bloomberg ran with without checking, they just were found liable in France (for 5 million euros) for what appears to be basically the same behavior.

France's AMF watchdog fines Bloomberg €5 million over Vinci hoax

 

[EinSV]

good to see, but, let’s keep things straight. Tom had nothing to do with the Bloomberg China story as far as we know. It was Tom’s track record of journalistic quality and integrity that prompted me to suggest our asking for his becoming involved to help clean things up. Let’s not do an “Unsworth” and throw shade at someone whose done no damage and may help. We don’t have a surplus of people in the media being fair, much less helpful, to Tesla : )

FYI Tom mentioned that he is taking a break from Twitter for the holidays so he may not see your tweet

Twitter

 

[SteveG3]

Both FCA and Peugeot have EV "plans" - but the time horizon is 2021 at the earliest. Until then the CO2 penalties are real and cost billions per quarter for PSA-FCA, which penalty Tesla can reduce here and now. I'd wait for @Prunesquallor to make a precise calculation, but I think the combined PSA-FCA ZEV pool now has a capacity of up to over a hundred thousand Teslas per quarter? The per sold car gains for Tesla should be similar.

ICE OEMs are good at scaling up, but they are really bad at innovating and moving quickly, especially in an industry they know very little about (high-tech), so I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting for FCA or PSA to sell ~400k EVs per year anytime soon.

lols, by plans, I did not mean actually selling enough EVs themselves to avoid penalties.

My understanding is that FCA was the only automaker who chose to enter such an agreement with Tesla. Any and all could have. Peugeot did not need to merge with FCA to be able to do this.

Not saying your scenario is not a possibility, it’s just not near a given to my view.

 

[Mike Smith]

I actually think this Bloomberg story will be positive for TSLA today. Most investors will key in on the part about costs dropping 20%, and Tesla didn't deny that.

 

[Fact Checking]

lols, by plans, I did not mean actually selling enough EVs themselves to avoid penalties.

My understanding is that FCA was the only automaker who chose to enter such an agreement with Tesla. Any and all could have. Peugeot did not need to merge with FCA to be able to do this.

Not saying your scenario is not a possibility, it’s just not near a given to my view.

Tesla could only pool up with a single pool if I understand the rules correctly, and FCA very likely insisted on an exclusive pool: they didn't want other carmakers to reduce the value of the pool to FCA.

Via the merger the pool is now covering a much larger carmaker. We don't know for sure, but I'd guess that the Tesla pool was one of the benefits FCA brought to the table in the PSA merger negotiations.

 

[Fact Checking]

I actually think this Bloomberg story will be positive for TSLA today. Most investors will key in on the part about costs dropping 20%, and Tesla didn't deny that.

Tesla China denied the story immediately and broadly with "this is the first time we heard about it".

Tesla doesn't need to individually deny every single false claim in a bogus story.

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla could only pool up with a single pool if I understand the rules correctly, and FCA very likely insisted on an exclusive pool: they didn't want other carmakers to reduce the value of the pool to FCA.

Via the merger the pool is now covering a much larger carmaker. We don't know for sure, but I'd guess that the Tesla pool was one of the benefits FCA brought to the table in the PSA merger negotiations.

that’s possible

the fact that possibly so much money is involved (or possibly not) is precisely why I have a little concern that this might quickly be interpreted as a “given” on our board before we have facts in place of a plausible scenario.