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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,270
6,940
usa
You start running into geological issues (each tunnel risks weakening the ground above it, and as you stack tunnels...), as well as issues with tunnel elevators and the time they take to get cars to tunnel level (especially as you go further and further down).

I have worked in railroad tunnels related to surface level rail transit and even though I have not been in a Boring Company tunnel, boy it looks a lot better. The riskier part is the entrance and exit with thermal stress and environmental exposure. Go down and stay down IMO. There is still a lot to learn however.

I would think that Boring Company Tunnels would strengthen the geology. There have been subsistence issues with coal companies removing millions of tons of material but even then it is amazing it is not far worse IMO given the geological damage these extractive companies have done to support surface rail transport.

There is no free lunch, we need clean energy and great engineering to thrive.
 

Chocochip

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
804
8,385
UK
The Boring Company is building EV tunnels to begin with because this is the lowest capital option and Elon already has companies with all the technology needed to do this.
Building a train system is far away from his own expertise and will cost far far more capital given how incompetent expensive and delayed train/track manufacturers/installers have proven with recent large projects in Europe and the US.

This paragraph got me thinking: an underground train system (call it a subway if you must) is difficult to execute mainly because it involves human transport in a high-risk environment. It requires extremely reliable safety systems with multiple levels of redundancy, and all these things must be audited and approved by many experts in various commissions. So, while putting something in place that works is easy, making sure that things can't go catastrophically bad is much, much more difficult, costly and time-consuming.

And this brought me to a parallel to space exploration. Look at how much more difficult it is to have the Crew Dragon capsule certified to transport astronauts to the ISS than it was to have a similar version of that capsule deliver stuff to the ISS, in terms of safety.

So wouldn't it actually make a lot more sense to use initial tunnels dug under major cities to simply route goods deliveries via autonomous transport containers or pods through these? It would make an ideal safety testing platform (nothing close to the value of human life is at risk) and it would contribute to decongesting surface streets. If anything, privately-owned cars should be the last transport category allowed to use such tunnels as they are the most risk-laden (difficult to confirm perfect technical alignment of individual autonomous systems to a pre-established set of standards, as well as the condition of each vehicle) and least effective as a means of transport. You'd want city authority run (or, I dunno, Tesla-run) communal-use pods as the next step after freight, and then individual cars last.

Just Sunday thoughts...
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
19,945
23,818
Texas
Back at the end of Q1 '19, there was a lot of enthusiasm about possible results, and many high figures were posted here. After a while the media picked up on some of them, and the analysts, and they raised the market expectation higher than Tesla could have met, even without the shipments to Europe and the Raven slowdown, so that made Q1 look even more terrible than it was.

Since then the joke became to always quote something around 83,000 deliveries.

The joke has grown old, I'm afraid.
It's grown old as a joke, but it hasn't grown old as advice to not post high estimates.
 

Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,589
20,596
California
Agree, although Fact Checking lays out a viable strategy this is a lot of work and you could miss some upside. Also, as Tesla matures the option prices will drop along with volatility and could be difficult to get sufficient income from the premiums. One of those benefits of being in the S & P 500 that has been discussed here. Tesla could start paying dividends buy I doubt it would be much.

My retirement funds are 30% in Tesla. My hope is with some minor trimming of my TSLA portfolio I can be comfortable living off the balance. Or maybe I don't need to trim to live off the balance if the rest does well. I am 3-8 years from retirement based on a number of things that are not all investment related.

Betting on one company to get you to retirement has enough risks depending on the percentage you bet.

Living off of one company in retirement is a whole different level of risk I would never take if you want to stay retired!

One small counterpoint is that while S&P inclusion would drop volatility, the intrinsic value of the options will increase as the share price rices, slightly counteracting the effect of a drop in IV. This does presume that we do not get a stock split. See AMZN for example.
 

Chickenlittle

Banned
Sep 10, 2013
2,781
4,943
Virginia
The OP said it was his idea, not the advisor. And why is 70% such a fail? Especially when we all seem to agree here that TSLA is no more than 10 to 20% of where it will be in the future?
My comment was not about the OP but the advisor. He was claiming how good he was, but clearly not. I believe he was a client for 10 years during which time the stock went from 17 dollars to 430. How is 70% return adequate?
 

traxila

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,874
11,162
NYC
My comment was not about the OP but the advisor. He was claiming how good he was, but clearly not. I believe he was a client for 10 years during which time the stock went from 17 dollars to 430. How is 70% return adequate?

As I already said, the advisor never recommended TSLA, as per the OP. The OP went to him for help in setting up the account to buy TSLA. The advisor simply helped him do this while giving him the usual tropes about not overextending. How is this a fail on the part of the advisor?

Not everyone is going to makes thousands and thousands of percent returns via leverage and options as TSLA climbs. Why cast aspersions on a 70% return? Seems better than the TSLAQ crowd is doing, with all their leverage and confidence. And it should climb steadily from here.

FWIW, I despise advisers and run from them relentlessly (they do chase me). But don’t believe this is the one you want to single out for attack.
 

GOVA

Mr Gumble
Jul 12, 2013
484
2,925
yes
Elon gets in trouble when he responds to trolls on twitter or has the recent run up in TSLA made people forget this? There are millions and will continue to be millions of tweets with misinformation regardless of what Elon does. This is not a battle he should be fighting.

Very well said. Twitter is not a place for anybody with self-respect, especially that runs multi-billion dollar companies. Scum and shorts only bait him with crap and wait for 1 - ONE weird reply.

Once Elon makes another mistake, shorts will turn in against Tesla/Elon and us, the investors.

He should not fight Twitter scum as it will never succeed. Waste of time and big danger this is.
 

JusRelax

Member
Apr 24, 2019
957
12,531
Los Angeles, CA
I have a potential answer but it requires a question to be answered. Here is my potential method:

Every 3 months:
1) Sell the most ITM covered call you are able for 3 months out
2) For the same time period, buy a slightly less (basically the next most) ITM call

Unless a black swan event occurs to drop the stock even more than the call you bought, you will have gained the difference in cost between the two calls every 3 months.

Now for my question: If I decide to try this method, but only have enough cash in my account to execute the call I bought when the same-dated call I sold gets executed, will I still be able to execute the call I bought?

Looks like I posted this too early and just realized my (very silly) fallacy:

Every 3 months, both of these calls will most likely be executed, and the primary portion of the difference in cost between the two calls (i.e. - the different strike prices) will be paid back when the calls execute due to the difference in strike prices. I would delete my initial post but I can no longer do that unfortunately.
 

RubberToe

Supporting the greater good
Jun 28, 2012
3,125
7,740
El Lay
So wouldn't it actually make a lot more sense to use initial tunnels dug under major cities to simply route goods deliveries via autonomous transport containers or pods through these? It would make an ideal safety testing platform (nothing close to the value of human life is at risk) and it would contribute to decongesting surface streets. ...

Just Sunday thoughts...

A bit OT, but heck it's Sunday...

A couple examples of starting down this path exist, at least with respect to moving goods to decongest surface streets...

The Alameda corridor is a grade separated mostly tunnel that moves containers from the LA Port up to the rail terminal East of downtown Los Angeles. A subsequent extension (Alameda Corridor East) continues this further East by grade separating the railroad tracks from surface streets.

Alameda Corridor - Wikipedia

Most port cargo is bound for the train yard in Victorville. There was once discussion of building a Maglev directly from the ports to Victorville. This would have had multiple benefits, including drastically reducing diesel truck traffic, cleaning up the air in the corridor, and getting the goods to Victorville much faster. A 100 mile network moving shipping containers at 90mph. I always thought that use of Maglev technology really made the most sense versus using it to move people point to point, since there is no other maglev network to connect to on either end. Haven't heard much about this recently, though they are talking about separate truck lanes and using electric trucks.

Ports considering maglev trains to cut smog

Elon's Boring tunnels are essentially mini versions of Maglev, just using battery powered vehicles and skipping the expensive superconducting "rails". And by skipping the rails, it allow for much easier interconnecting of any/all tunnels built, much greater flexibility. I don't know whether a large build out of Boring tunnels will end up reducing surface congestion. It will be interesting to see. And now it seems like UAM will also be in the running for moving people from the suburbs to various city center locations much faster too:

Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

The OP statement of moving goods versus people is well taken, much less safety system required. Not sure if say a shipping container would fit in a Boring tunnel or not. And you would need a pretty large integrated tunnel system to make it economical to start moving goods around, kind of a chicken and egg problem. The Maglev from the Ports to Victorville was a point to point solution that would work, so no additional connections would be required. Now, if Elon can get tunneling cheap and fast enough, a cargo tunnel from the ports to Victorville would generate an insane amount of revenue, if the 90,000 trucks per day estimate is accurate. The fuel savings alone of switching from diesel to electric would obliterate truck traffic on surface streets. The boring company has to have looked at this possibility. If not, I'll happily accept 0.001% of the net profit for coming up with the idea.

RT
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Mar 24, 2013
8,286
29,103
While this was true at times in the past, and Elon indeed got into trouble in the past for defending himself, this time he and his mother Maye Musk handled it elegantly and powerfully:


The only tool to correct vile lies about his childhood that garnered tens of thousands of "likes" on Twitter and form the backbone of smear attacks against him and Tesla is for Elon and his family to correct the record in a few specific cases.

I do agree with you that Elon should not try to be defensive about everything, and I do think he learned this lesson, his tweeting has been top notch over the past couple of months.
The pedant in me would have gotten into trouble by adding
"Pretty awful lie indeed. There ARE NO emerald mines in emerald-free South Africa. Geology is all wrong. Closest mines are in Zambia, and they opened up only after Elon departed from Africa."

On Edit: Prompted by @ggr's line "They are all lies", I looked into one of the BI articles....at least that one claimed a Musk connection to...a Zambian emerald mine. Nonetheless, the overall tripe was way overripe....and even so claimed a South African site.
 
Last edited:

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,613
29,667
The pedant in me would have gotten into trouble by adding
"Pretty awful lie indeed. There ARE NO emerald mines in emerald-free South Africa. Geology is all wrong. Closest mines are in Zambia, and they opened up only after Elon departed from Africa."

Pedantry is not equal to sophistry. The Sophists who made up that "...Pretty awful lie..." would have done well to have a Pedant around!
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
Back at the end of Q1 '19, there was a lot of enthusiasm about possible results, and many high figures were posted here. After a while the media picked up on some of them, and the analysts, and they raised the market expectation higher than Tesla could have met, even without the shipments to Europe and the Raven slowdown, so that made Q1 look even more terrible than it was.

Since then the joke became to always quote something around 83,000 deliveries.

The joke has grown old, I'm afraid.

It will only grow old after the P&D numbers in about a week. It's helpful that everyone on this forum has not been putting out overly optimistic numbers to create a large "miss". Thanks to you all (almost all) for your restraint.
 

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,973
20,335
Bavaria
Even if one's early investments in TSLA are at a low price, let's say $23.8 in my case, continued addition as the value and growth of Tesla unfolds, reduces the current return rate to 5X instead of 18X. So depending on entry and additions, 70% may not be bad.

Right. I first bought TSLA at 140 ($), but had to sell it all (at 240) when we bought our holiday house in Italy. I was only able to start buying TSLA again in 2018 so I am up (just somewhat) less than 70%. As for the calculations of how expensive this summer house then has turned out to be, I tell myself that I could not know at the time - and that I can now post to TMC while looking out the window to see Corsica on the horizon (well not just now, but it will be there again tomorrow morning).

On that note, can the PowerWall be recharged from the grid?

Italy (and Spain) have this terrible (residential) electricity pricing where an increase in your allowed peak load on the grid makes the monthly base fee go up drastically. So you have to choose your base rate along with your allowed peak power (e.g. 6kW) and whenever you happen to exceed that, the power turns itself off and you have to go to your meter and push the relay lever back up to reinstate power. In such markets, the Powerwall will basically allow the owner to choose a peak load that only corresponds to their daily average load (since you average your load on the grid out on all 24 hours). So in addition to being sunny countries, the PowerWall could really make a difference here.
 

printf42

Active Member
Sep 29, 2018
1,296
13,313
CA
Very well said. Twitter is not a place for anybody with self-respect, especially that runs multi-billion dollar companies. Scum and shorts only bait him with crap and wait for 1 - ONE weird reply.

Once Elon makes another mistake, shorts will turn in against Tesla/Elon and us, the investors.

He should not fight Twitter scum as it will never succeed. Waste of time and big danger this is.
Elon is not fighting the dirty fight this time.

Just simple statement of facts, no name calling, no challenging of any specific person.

I don’t see any downside of doing that, Elon is handling it like a champion recently.
 

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