Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

Another case where stock splits matter is when issuing stock options to employees. To use round numbers, assume the standard grant is 1000 shares for a new employee. After a 2:1 stock split, a current employee will then have double the number of their options, but a new employee will still get 1000 shares, not 2000. That's been my experience over the years working for companies that have done stock splits. This impacts dilution if the company is doing a lot of hiring, and I'm sure there is an accounting impact as well.

 

[lklundin]

I can't imagine being upset when someone speaks the truth.

On an unrelated topic, you then clearly never had someone confide in you how they have been sexually abused.

 

[jerry33]

Even more interesting is this little unexpected tidbit:
Slide 10, "Level 5 autonomous driving will take up to 1 billion lines of code": Trying to get to L5 by writing that much code - and doing it with sufficiently few detects - will not be possible on any relevant time scale.

FIFY: Trying to get to L5 by writing that much code - and doing it with sufficiently few detects - will not be possible on any time scale. Even if 50% of the lines are comments.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It's incredible that GF3 has gone from groundbreaking to delivering cars in the same calendar year.

 

[JRP3]

On an unrelated topic, you then clearly never had someone confide in you how they have been sexually abused.

Actually I have, but was glad they were able to speak the truth. So yes, the truth can be upsetting but I wouldn't want to stifle it when it needs to be expressed.

 

[madodel]

I thought to check for VW's plans for the batteries needed for 1 million cars and sure enough:

Slide 9, "Battery supply secured": I wonder if Diess will be sued when this turns out to not work like he had envisioned?

Even more interesting is this little unexpected tidbit:
Slide 10, "Level 5 autonomous driving will take up to 1 billion lines of code": Trying to get to L5 by writing that much code - and doing it with sufficiently few detects - will not be possible on any relevant time scale.

For comparison, the Linux Kernel that runs (on) every Tesla is only on the order of 10^7 lines, with 99% of that being drivers and portability(*). So between the actual Linux kernel and Diess L5 strategy you have 4 orders of magnitude in lines of code that have to be correct - and the complexity of the software to be validated does not just grow linearly with the number of lines of code.

Clearly, VW's lack of understanding of software goes way beyond being unable to write what they need for their ID.3 .

Contrast that with Tesla's FSD approach, which now is a matter of tagging relevant training data and applying that to their Neural Network.

For Tesla, this is awesome news.

PS. (*) Linux runs on an astounding number of platforms - and includes the source code for drivers for all supported peripherals. Naturally, any actual system (like a Tesla) will need only a minute subset of this vast majority of the code.

How would something like that be maintained? That's insane.

 

[Ggusev]

if I submit order dec 30th, will it count for q4 or q1 when car is delivered?

 

[Papafox]

Sometimes it's helpful to look at TSLA's share prices on a logarithmic scale to better perceive the extent of the breakout so far. In terms of expectations of traders who have been locked in a trading range below 388 for years now, the breakout looks pretty substantial so far. On the other hand, looking at the 2013 breakout and the 2017 breakout, the 2019-2020 breakout looks like it could have a long ways to go before it's looking too extravagant. Ultimately, analysts and investors will be looking at Q4 results and guidance to predict future profits for this company and then work backwards to derive present value of TSLA based upon perceived future earnings.

 

[Chickenlittle]

if I submit order dec 30th, will it count for q4 or q1 when car is delivered?

They report production number and delivery number which only includes those cars delivered with all paper work complete and payment received

 

[Prunesquallor]

OK, no more cutesy good-luck black cat avatars.

Tesla doesn’t need luck anymore - it’s time for the kill:

• Kill the shorts: SP500 ASAP.
• Kill the EV competition: none of them are taking the mission seriously. Widen the tech lead, accelerate tech development. Turn them into BlackBerries. Take all the batteries.
• Kill ICE: Bleed FCA, PSA and any other EU emissions pooling candidates. Drive them toward bankruptcies. Use the money to accelerate/expand Giga Berlin. More Teslas, more emissions credits - a virtuous cycle (but not for them. HAH!) Develop models for all markets. Develop Mazda-killers, Honda-killers. They are clueless. (Maybe give the subcompact market to VW if they are capable, but the recent software cluster does not bode well). Get Semi out the door. More Gigas. Have Gigas make Gigas.
  
• Kill FUD: Unleash the lawyers. Sue for every demonstrably false report against Tesla and/or Musk.

 

[JustMe]

FIFY: Trying to get to L5 by writing that much code - and doing it with sufficiently few detects - will not be possible on any time scale. Even if 50% of the lines are comments.

Look- this is easy. Just have everyone in China write one line of code. Then BAM! FSD is done.

Next problem?

 

[Navin]

微博

Stream for China deliveries

 

[dakh]

Another case where stock splits matter is when issuing stock options to employees. To use round numbers, assume the standard grant is 1000 shares for a new employee. After a 2:1 stock split, a current employee will then have double the number of their options, but a new employee will still get 1000 shares, not 2000. That's been my experience over the years working for companies that have done stock splits. This impacts dilution if the company is doing a lot of hiring, and I'm sure there is an accounting impact as well.

People are not that stupid, any grants are valued in dollars at current valuation, not some abstract share counts.

 

[anthonyj]

View attachment 494228

Sometimes it's helpful to look at TSLA's share prices on a logarithmic scale to better perceive the extent of the breakout so far. In terms of expectations of traders who have been locked in a trading range below 388 for years now, the breakout looks pretty substantial so far. On the other hand, looking at the 2013 breakout and the 2017 breakout, the 2019-2020 breakout looks like it could have a long ways to go before it's looking too extravagant. Ultimately, analysts and investors will be looking at Q4 results and guidance to predict future profits for this company and then work backwards to derive present value of TSLA based upon perceived future earnings.

It's going to $55,000

 

[kengchang]

微博

Stream for China deliveries

Going over Model 3 overview again, nothing interesting. Going back into the ceremony now

Last employee taking delivery is proposing to his GF. (Both were studying in the US)

There will be more employee delivery in the next two days and mass delivery to consumers starts in Jan 2020

 

[JustMe]

Going over Model 3 overview again, nothing interesting. Going back into the ceremony now

Well I did learn that they love vertical video

 

[Chunky Jr.]

People are not that stupid, any grants are valued in dollars at current valuation, not some abstract share counts.

Every option grant I have received, given, or heard about in 30 years in Silicon Valley were in shares, not dollars.

 

[tinm]

OK, no more cutesy good-luck black cat avatars.

Tesla doesn’t need luck anymore - it’s time for the kill:

• Kill the shorts: SP500 ASAP.
• Kill the EV competition: none of them are taking the mission seriously. Widen the tech lead, accelerate tech development. Turn them into BlackBerries. Take all the batteries.
• Kill ICE: Bleed FCA, PSA and any other EU emissions pooling candidates. Drive them toward bankruptcies. Use the money to accelerate/expand Giga Berlin. More Teslas, more emissions credits - a virtuous cycle (but not for them. HAH!) Develop models for all markets. Develop Mazda-killers, Honda-killers. They are clueless. (Maybe give the subcompact market to VW if they are capable, but the recent software cluster does not bode well). Get Semi out the door. More Gigas. Have Gigas make Gigas.
  
• Kill FUD: Unleash the lawyers. Sue for every demonstrably false report against Tesla and/or Musk.

I get the sentiment of this post but the reason I invest in Tesla is because I agree with the company’s inspiring mission “to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy” and your post I find in conflict with this mission.

Tesla will not accelerate the transition if it goes around trying to kill competition. Instead, it should INSPIRE competition to do better by showing the way—by making the best sustainable-energy vehicles and technology on the planet.

This is an all-hands-on-deck mission.

 

[AudubonB]

View attachment 494228

Sometimes it's helpful to look at TSLA's share prices on a logarithmic scale to better perceive the extent of the breakout so far. In terms of expectations of traders who have been locked in a trading range below 388 for years now, the breakout looks pretty substantial so far. On the other hand, looking at the 2013 breakout and the 2017 breakout, the 2019-2020 breakout looks like it could have a long ways to go before it's looking too extravagant. Ultimately, analysts and investors will be looking at Q4 results and guidance to predict future profits for this company and then work backwards to derive present value of TSLA based upon perceived future earnings.

I will amend this comment by saying at all times it is helpful to look at TSLA's share prices....and those of effectively all other companies...only on log-10 scales. (Price log; time linear).

 

[Fact Checking]

Every option grant I have received, given, or heard about in 30 years in Silicon Valley were in shares, not dollars.

That's true, but new equity awards at larger firms are usually budget items and are defined in dollar terms. So if the share price goes up, new shares awarded go down. If the stock splits 1:2, shares awarded double too. Existing options are split-adjusted too.

Round share awards are used at the very early VC and startup phase, often before the company is IPO-ed. In those stages there are no formal equity award and budget concerns, as share awards are typically based on non-market valuations and equity awards are not cash expenses.

Only much later on does the problem of equity awards reducing GAAP profits arise - at which point equity awards morph over to dollar terms.