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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
One would think. It sounds like a software problem. Elon should be good at those.
Off-hand, for service, determine a “reasonable” duration for each possible service issue, with a standard deviation. As you start passing standard deviations, produce increasingly severe alerts. If you’ve gone 6 weeks with no progress on a damn flat tire(I still haven’t even heard whether it can be repaired or needs to be replaced), something has gone disasterously wrong.
anthonyj
Stonks
Fact Checking is Larry Ellison. He recommends this book
https://www.amazon.com/Difference-Between-God-Larry-Ellison/dp/B010EWC0NI
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
.
I'd disagree with that characterization even if we luck out and happen to be closer to the actual production figures than Troy - which is nowhere near guaranteed. Troy has put a truckload of effort into his survey which served us well in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and I can understand him trying to stick with what the data is telling him. It would actually be less scientific to not stick with his methodology just because it disagrees with our bullish expectations and with the meta-communication from Tesla, as long as he is convinced that it's the right methodology.
Furthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board - a whole murder of crows in fact.
I'd disagree with that characterization even if we luck out and happen to be closer to the actual production figures than Troy - which is nowhere near guaranteed. Troy has put a truckload of effort into his survey which served us well in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and I can understand him trying to stick with what the data is telling him. It would actually be less scientific to not stick with his methodology just because it disagrees with our bullish expectations and with the meta-communication from Tesla, as long as he is convinced that it's the right methodology.
Furthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board - a whole murder of crows in fact.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yes that's insane. Should not have taken more than 6 minutes to make that determination let alone 6 weeks.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Plus it will murder the stock priceFurthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board ...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Plus it will murder the stock price
LOL - edited a reference to that into my reply just before seeing your reply.
Thank you, I saw Munro's margin estimates; 18% for the base model and 36% for the $48k LR model (ex EAP), i think both for a 10k/week production rate. I was never clear if his margin included warranty, deferred revenue/costs and depreciation. I assumed it included depreciation, but excluded c.$2k warranty costs, c.$1.5k deferred costs for internet/software update commitments and $2k additional revenue & profit from GHG credit sales. I think the spreadsheet image above is just somebody's estimate of margin on each option, building off Munro's 18% base.
Do you mean post my total revenue, gross profit and cash flow forecast per model for Q4? I can do that later
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
It's Munro's spreadsheet - I believe it was shown in one of Munro's videos, probably taken down meanwhile (but I haven't checked). Maybe this is what got him into legal trouble. But Twitter rarely forgets, I saved one of the retweets of that screenshot.
I don't know the assumptions behind those numbers.
JonP on Twitter
I think that spreadsheet originate here, JonP on Twitter, looks like somebody trying to build a model based on Munro's 18%/36% numbers and estimate when SR would be released.
I have premium interior cost at c.$2k rather than $0.5k, battery cell costs at c.$120/kwh rather than $150/kwh (should reduce to $100/kwh in 1H19) and 0 costs for EAP rather than $0.5k. If there is any cost for EAP it is likely to be a deferred cost, so would reduce reported revenue rather than add a cost.
Here we go!
#Tesla registered 2,241 new #Model3 VINs. ~91% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 195797.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
#Tesla registered 2,241 new #Model3 VINs. ~91% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 195797.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
One would think. I don't see how they could possibly have such a system though; there's simply too many communications screw-ups. A customer, even a would-be customer, entering into a communications transaction with Tesla needs to unfortunately expect failure every step of the way. If you get a good experience, congrats, but it's just as likely you won't. Excellence in this area is not a company-wide priority. It may very well be a priority for select individual employees and one always hopes you get one for your need/transaction, but it's not company culture yet to Do The Right Thing In A Timely Manner. Like @neroden I've been railing against the company for years about this, urging them to fix this eminently fixable problem.
As we enter 2019, and the Model 3 continues to scale, the communications problem at Tesla will also continue to scale. It's Tesla's biggest weakness: in their zeal for technological innovation (innovation we can all agree is remarkable), they forgot to innovate on the customer-company-communication front with equal zeal, even though those problems are easy compared to, say, FSD or optimizing energy density in batteries. CRM and to a lesser extent VRM are well-defined disciplines in countless other businesses and there are myriad methods and systems and management techniques to ensure smooth communications between customer and company. Tesla's so busy getting cars out the door, they (and I mean Elon on down in the management chain) have not prioritized fixing this weakness. Yet. I always have hope.
Elon says what he thinks and we like him for it. And we know he is not wrong on this so why would you advocate to bend the knee?
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Munro ate the lot - none left for you. You'll just have to be right unfortunately..
I'd disagree with that characterization even if we luck out and happen to be closer to the actual production figures than Troy - which is nowhere near guaranteed. Troy has put a truckload of effort into his survey which served us well in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and I can understand him trying to stick with what the data is telling him. It would actually be less scientific to not stick with his methodology just because it disagrees with our bullish expectations and with the meta-communication from Tesla, as long as he is convinced that it's the right methodology.
Furthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board - a whole murder of crows in fact.
The die is cast!
Sparky
Member
So, I guess the converse, if the P&D numbers are much better, is getting pooped on by a parliament of owls?.
...Furthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board - a whole murder of crows in fact.
tsunamiofhurt
Member
Using one data source is always a bad idea, especially considering all of the uncertainties around VINs and survey participation. I think not recognizing changing conditions and alternative data points is a mistake..
I'd disagree with that characterization even if we luck out and happen to be closer to the actual production figures than Troy - which is nowhere near guaranteed. Troy has put a truckload of effort into his survey which served us well in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and I can understand him trying to stick with what the data is telling him. It would actually be less scientific to not stick with his methodology just because it disagrees with our bullish expectations and with the meta-communication from Tesla, as long as he is convinced that it's the right methodology.
Furthermore, if he got closer to the actual production figures then us then there's going to be a lot of crows to eat on this board - a whole murder of crows in fact.
The scientific approach involves the free exchange of ideas, evidence, etc. in order to find truth. IMO when people challenge your assumptions or viewpoint, the appropriate response is to ... BLOCK THEM. Just kidding. It's to listen to their views, offer your own, use reason and logical arguments. Everyone benefits.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Umm - I think you are getting confused with Brexit... The owls are locked and loaded against Juncker but "blue on blue" fire quite likely as the owls mostly need spectacles...
May is gonna get one of these:
The big question for Q4 is: Will a conspiracy of lemurs help or hurt the financials?
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