Sometimes missing the boat colors people's commentary.
I for one have been gonads-deep on margin all 2019 and haven't sold anything. Tesla is a juggernaut. People will regret not buying in the 500s by this summer
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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I for one have been gonads-deep on margin all 2019 and haven't sold anything. Tesla is a juggernaut. People will regret not buying in the 500s by this summer
What does engineering have to do with the fact that Tesla would make any car for Europe in Europe, at GF4? Or the fact that European consumers generally don't like Chinese-made cars?
And if you were referring to the earlier comments about aero: I said that they probably will eventually make one. But physics renders it a worse drag shape, which means more batteries, which means more cost. There is no getting around rear taper constraints. Air detaches when the flow gets too steep. There are various techniques you can use to try to maintain flow attachment as long as possible, but the basic shape of the vehicle always defines your baseline, and vehicles with a rear truncated at a large fraction of their cross section are fundamentally a draggier shape than vehicles that taper at the rear. The only thing you can really do to counter this is reduce the width and height, to reduce the cross section. But while Europe in general prefers smaller vehicles than the US, we generally don't prefer super-minis. Indeed, preferred heights for vehicles seems to be rising.
Some people misinterpret the word "engineering" to mean "magic".
Karen. Just buy and hold. You cannot time this run nor can you convince anyone here that Tesla's smaller Chinese commuter car will cost more than current offerings.
This conversation is getting increasingly surreal. What do any of:
* Engineering in general
* Energy consumption of European-style small hatches
* Overall cost of manufacturing European-style small hatches, with particular emphasis on battery needs
* Indirect costs to Tesla of vehicles with higher energy consumption
* Whether Tesla would make European-style small hatch
* Where Tesla would make a European-style small hatch
... have to do with investment strategies?
Yeah, ok, cool... what does that mean, practically? I guess I expected some specifics, like they’re going to build this other factory section that goes over there, and they’re going to place the GA line there, and... you know, that type of thing.
Not complaining, I thought Elon celebrating the 1-year anniversary of his Shanghai GF dance in front of Chinese govt. officials by doing an extended version of his Shanghai GF dance in front of Chinese govt. officials was a great move, but I’m technically inclined, so…
Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
Yeah, 460 will be the line to defend today. We'll likely blow through that shortly after the Open, and then the shortzes will try to walk back the SP with an extended fade to Close.
However, a positive macro environment today will make that harder to do, so barring an 'Orange' alert, I think it'll be a tough day for shortie.
MMs will have their way again on Friday. The have unlimited shorting power, precious little visiblilty of their manipulatations, and no SEC oversight whatsoever. So there's that.
Cheers!
It's "launched" now because they opened up Model Y orders to Chinese customers. On the website it says (translated), "production is expected to start as soon as 2021".
The Tesla bull community sometimes goes overboard on unrealistic expectations, but I have to say, expecting Tesla to be building and delivering Model Ys in China when they don't have a line for them there and haven't even opened their US line yet is a new level in ridiculousness.
*ED : ReflexFunds thinks that the Y page may already have been open to customers (wherein this launch would only represent the start of the project to build the Y line at GF3). I've seen some reporting elsewhere that they were opening up Y orders, but I believe he's right about the page not being new. If there's going to be a special opening of a "domestic only" Y option, it's not happened yet.
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Nah. You clearly missed much of the recent run and have obliquely admitted so "why are you making me roll my call spreads hurrdurr", which has in turn clearly altered the tone of all your postings to slightly indignant, pseudo bearishness.
We are not dumb.
Christine600
Supporting Member
Had to compare that to Norway. One of the largest charging providers is Fortum Charge & Drive. They have 1900 charging stations in Norway. We have several other providers too.
Source: Fortum i Norge | Fortum.no
1. This conversation has literally nothing to with anything related to stock prices or investment strategies. What you're doing is a injection of the topic into an unrelated conversation because you have a bone to pick for some bizarre reason.
2. I'm raking in money, and thrilled by it. My account has something like 5-6x'ed since the Q3 ER. And the fact that you'd think that bought call spreads would be hurt by a rising stock price shows that you have zero understanding of options whatsoever. Even after reducing leverage as prices have risen, my leverage was about 7:1 last time I checked. What's yours? You want to call someone with a +7:1 leverage a bear, seriously? If you're just "buying and holding stock", my leverage is *way* higher than yours. I'm only critical of investment strategies that are far more extreme, like Jack's. I worry he's going to lose a ton of money that way. I could be wrong, but I worry for him.
3. Literally nothing has changed about my views of any topic I've written about. I've long been writing about the critical importance of aero to EVs and how engineering doesn't mean "magic", that you can make a vehicle of any shape and have it use as much energy as a vehicle of any other shape.
4. If you're only here to be a jerk, please leave.
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Artful Dodger
"Ducimus, lit"
OF COURSE they're not starting production now. That was a stupid rumor started by an irresponsible blogger based on a flawed chinglish tweet which ended as a question.
Sheesh, we need a little critical thinking up in here. They don't even have a Model Y production building yet, never mind the months it will take to build and then commission the body and GA lines. Don't expect any of that before the 'v1' line is up and running in Fremont. Why troubleshoot twice? Do their learning once, then replicate at GF3/4 during 2021.
Today's announcement was of the start of the project to build the Model Y at GF3/Shanghai, nothing more. It's like the Oct 2018 announcement for GF3 Model 3.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I don't think this is a surprise to anyone. In fact, I'd be more surprised if Tesla wasn't doing 500-800 orders+ a day BEFORE the subsidy announcement.
I mean, the $TLSAQ crowd will be struck like a battering ram, but that's their own fault for the block list. Hastag, no sympathies.
This is not MIC Model Y. I guess this order page has always been open. MIC SR+ Y is not going to cost ¥444k vs Model 3 at ¥300k.
I agree its absurd to think MIC Y production is imminent. Though I think we could see cars before the end of 2020.
Some retail investors and hedge funds do buy converts for both the debt and call option exposure.
However, generally converts are bought by debt funds who either are not allowed or do not want the equity exposure.
My assumption here for Tesla converts was 80% owned by debt funds, 20% by unhedged buyers. And an unhedged % of 20% is likely higher than for most company's converts.
Agreed - I fully expect Tesla to sandbag Chinese Model Y order pricing - and possibly timing - the exact same way they did with the US, to avoid the Osbourne effect.
But the people who were expecting it today were just being ridiculous.
Faster growth does come at the expense of short term profits due to higher R&D, higher product ramp costs, higher depreciation etc.
However this just lowers profits, it does not make profits impossible.
You need to look at every company in detail on a case by case basis to see where the growth vs profits tradeoff balances out.
In Tesla's case it looks very likely that they have hit escape velocity and profits can grow significantly while still investing to grow at its maximum rate (bottlenecked by other factors such as management bandwidth, regulatory permits, labour availability etc).
A key reason why it looks like they have reached this profit escape velocity is because of the extreme R&D efficiency at Elon's companies. They can invent a huge number of things and bring a huge number of products to market on a relatively small R&D budget. R&D would have to grow in the 100s of %s to cancel out gross profit growth.
They have also worked to increase capex efficiency, but it is harder to have as dramatic an advantage here as they have for R&D relative to the market. I think Tesla may step up capex (and M&A) as profit and operating cash flow grow to maximise volume growth and run the company to free cash flow neutral. However I think this will still deliver rapidly increasing profits from here.
CaliBear1
Member
Forget FSD, THIS could be the final nail in the Short coffin (mass grave?)!
Edit: I forgot to give credit to EV-Enthusiast! Sorry!
EV-Enthusiast wrote:
Good to see Tesla keeps looking for future growth potential.
Elon mentioning a new and smaller vehicle designed and built in China during the Model 3 MIC first deliveries ceremony is just one more growth opportunity for the next years.
There are currently so may other projects generating continued growth for Tesla of about 50% per year like Semi, Model Y, Gigafactory 4 and so on.
I would not bet against Tesla growth trajectory, they have a pretty damn good track record since their early days.
Edit: I forgot to give credit to EV-Enthusiast! Sorry!
EV-Enthusiast wrote:
Good to see Tesla keeps looking for future growth potential.
Elon mentioning a new and smaller vehicle designed and built in China during the Model 3 MIC first deliveries ceremony is just one more growth opportunity for the next years.
There are currently so may other projects generating continued growth for Tesla of about 50% per year like Semi, Model Y, Gigafactory 4 and so on.
I would not bet against Tesla growth trajectory, they have a pretty damn good track record since their early days.
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uselesslogin
Supporting Member
So TSLA is not on the shortable stock list at Interactive Brokers. Yesterday there were a million shares available and today none. This is weird, the last time this happened was July and there were a lot fewer shares available then on the surrounding days. I don’t know if that means someone shorted massively yesterday and utterly failed to contain the price, someone will try to short massively today, or that it is just some kind of weird glitch. It is interesting nonetheless.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Is there currently any coverage on the MIC Model 3 delivery news from CNBC / Cramer in the US?
Thanks.
Thanks.
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