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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

rallykeeper

Member
Jul 9, 2013
248
880
Southern California
S
Your main point of little overlap between EV and ICE drivetrains is surely true.
Your second suggesting Sony knows more about EV battery setup than ICE companies seems unfounded.

"Sony Corporation manufactures audio, home video game consoles, communications, key device, and information technology products for the consumer and professional markets. The Company's other businesses include music, pictures, computer entertainment, and online businesses."

Sony and Panasonic compete in several markets but battery cell and EV drivetrains aren't one of them.
Sony is entertaining the notion of coming out with an EV because they are even more clueless about how difficult that is than Audi and other ICE vehicle makers.

Sony was the first company to commercialize lithium-ion batteries -- beginning in the early 1990's. While they did sell that line of business in 2017 and they weren't able to compete on price very well, it wasn't that long ago and they likely have a lot of retained know-how and institutional knowledge (and likely even royalty-free licenses on their former battery technology to the extent that's worth anything).

Not in the same league as Panasonic or Tesla, but that's definitely a step above ICE companies.

And, Sony is also a world leader in imaging and seems to be taking a similar approach to Tesla in autonomy. Again, that's way ahead of ICE companies.

Like Apple, I don't think Sony necessarily will sell an actual car, but they are positioning to act as a supplier to other OEMs and could theoretically muscle their way into building an actual car if the OEMs don't bite. And again, like Apple, their core skillset of industrial and software design, along with their imaging and battery know-how, are more useful to the future of cars than anything ICE manufacturers can offer.

On the other hand, Apple hasn't succeeded yet (or even shown us anything) and they have a lot more money than Sony. And, Sony has definitely stumbled in the past.

(Btw, this is a welcome diversionary discussion from watching the stock price and interesting, I think, to the long-term competitive landscape for Tesla)
 

TradingInvest

Active Member
Mar 8, 2017
1,694
13,611
USA
A mental exercise: if you have $10k to invest (that's all the money, no new money), stock XYZ is at $200. You know for a fact XYZ has 80% chance to go straight to $8k a share in 10 years. It also has 20% chance to drop to $140 temporarily, then rally to $8k.

Which of the following will give you the most return?

1. Wait for it to drop to $140, then get the max number of shares;
2. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash wait for the $140 entry;
3. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash, if stock goes to $500, invest the rest;
4. Invest them all at $200.
 

Jackl1956

Active Member
May 11, 2013
1,788
11,335
Los Angeles
AD6291D9-B6E2-4799-964B-CD25C649792C.jpeg


I’m thinking about tomorrow. You guys are the BEST.
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,621
6,536
Smögen
I bought early solely based on 2 data points:

1. Product is amazing.

2. CEO landing rockets on barges.

I recommend this investment strategy.

(At least on a day like today)
I also bought in relatively early (April 2013, ~$50), based mainly on two other points:
1. Reading about Elon's rebuttal to the NYT hit piece where the lying author desperately tried to brick a test car;
2. Reading Elon's rebuttal to the NYT hit piece where the lying author desperately tried to brick a test car -- in the process ripping not only that clown and his silly article but the entire paper to shreds. NYT apologized.

This opened my eyes to both the product and the driving personality behind it. I was lucky to get in so early but still a bit nervous, so I sold around the peak to regain my stake and my tranquillity. Later added, sometimes on dips. :rolleyes:

Now my position is well over my house mortgage value, but I needed a little cash so sold one today @497. 499 did not go through. o_O Oh well, maybe a new day tomorrow, eh? :D

GLTAL as we say it over här.
 

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,912
19,512
Bavaria
The most obvious protection is that the shorts must daily put enough cash (it's all handled automatically by their broker) into a 4th or 5th party account that enables the lender of the shares to receive 102% (that's the number I remember - it's at least 100%) of yesterday's closing price in the event of a default.

Since the bell has rung (and what a ring), let me just mention a curious exception to the above.

Like others, Robinhood allows retail investors to buy stock and use their long position as collateral for new trades.

Robinhood had however a bug that meant that the value of the long position that could be used as collateral forgot to take into account when the long position was already comprising shares bought via this mechanism. By buying over and over, a customer could leverage their initial trade by an unlimited factor. This loophole was aptly named 'infinite leverage'.

Incredibly, one redditor posted a detailed description of how he turned an initial deposit of 2k$ into a balance of 1 million dollars, i.e. a leverage of 500 times. He apparently hoped that no one would notice so that he could profit from this factor-500 leverage.

Naturally, the stock he bought fluctuated downwards by the tiniest amount, sending his portfolio into a negative that exceeded his total worth by far. Since this was in part Robinhood's fault, they made some kind of compromise, incl. him being indefinitely banned from there...

Since this sounds so incredible, I took a minute to find a reference:
The jig is up: Robinhood says it's closed the 'infinite leverage' loophole that allowed users to build positions worth millions | Markets Insider

Yes, software developers are not always as smart as they think...
 

Todd Burch

Voltage makes me tingle.
Nov 3, 2009
7,801
28,498
Smithfield, VA
my biggest fear is poor m3 demand that drops in places like the USA and the Netherlands due to lower incentives and seasonality. But there is a possibility that demand keeps strong and new demand from the U.K. keeps the production lines at full power.

Another possible positive is of course early model Y shipments and FSD developments.

We've pretty reliably seen drops in price when Tesla has concerns about demand, so that would be a warning sign. So far, no price drops in Q1...bullish so far.
 

thait84

Member
Sep 22, 2017
212
1,326
San Diego
A mental exercise: if you have $10k to invest (that's all the money, no new money), stock XYZ is at $200. You know for a fact XYZ has 80% chance to go straight to $8k a share in 10 years. It also has 20% chance to drop to $140 temporarily, then rally to $8k.

Which of the following will give you the most return?

1. Wait for it to drop to $140, then get the max number of shares;
2. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash wait for the $140 entry;
3. Invest half at $200, keep the other half in cash, if stock goes to $500, invest the rest;
4. Invest them all at $200.

I would invest the $200 all right now, and spend my time and energy trying to earn more money versus trying to predict the bottom.
 

Ggusev

Member
Mar 26, 2019
38
463
Claremont
my TSLA stock gains allowed me to order an X a week ago, with expected delivery in 6-8 weeks this purchase will count as Q1'20
I have a strong feeling that I'm not alone who had this model in mind, many robinhood users expressed similar approach: "I'll use TSLA as piggy bank and hope gains will eventually pay for my Model3"

Tremendous rally from 200ish to almost 500 made this dream come true for many. If we see rapid decline in robinhood TSLA holders, you can bet anything that most of them just ordered their cars recently.
Plus, chinese buyers will buy (afaik already bought!) every MiC Tesla rolling out of GF3.

Having said that, with two massive waves of buyers - retail from RH and chinese, Q1 numbers might completely ignore so-called seasonality and beat any expectations.
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Apr 6, 2015
2,400
9,599
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla Stock Is Richly Valued. GM’s in the 1950s Was Richer.

Tesla became the largest car company in America ever Tuesday. Impressive, but there were some caveats; the biggest one being that market-value numbers weren’t adjusted for inflation.

So how does Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) stack up versus that of General Motors (GM) back when the stalwart Detroit auto maker ruled the Fortune 500 list? It turns out, Tesla still has a way to go.

In fact, Tesla stock has to rise another 50% to 75%, based on Barron’s math, until the electric-vehicle pioneer can claim the...


Such a media turnaround in the past few months. I think the article is a kind of a back handed compliment but still.
How does TSLA compare with the market value of Conestoga Wagons Unlimited from the 1820s? Not even close when adjusted for inflation. And what good is a Tesla without a yoke for the draft horses?
 

johnnybgood888

Supporting Member
Feb 8, 2018
124
940
Toronto, Canada
I just don’t understand why you simply can’t go to @KarenRei ’s island. She wants you to come and admission is only a sapling. Heck, I’ll buy the sapling for you to take.
Speaking of which, are we still having a meetup on KarenRei's island when stock price is $500? I vaguely recall that was proposed way way way back when the stock price was in the 300's.
 
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KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
NSFW: Grimes posted this:

Daphne on Twitter

Most people apparently have just been staring at her breasts and failing to notice the silhouetted fetus in her abdomen. With the SpaceX drone ship logo right over it. In a related post she mentions being "knocked up".

Looks like Elon has another child on the way. :)

MODERATOR WARNING:
I am not even going to look to see if there have been follow-up posts. This is a ZERO TOLERANCE item: Absolutely no postings of any kind will be allowed to occur here. Take ALL to the "Elon Musk" thread....as a hint, it's not within the "Investor" subset.
 
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