Looks like a new tent has shown up at Fremont:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Activity at the Tesla Fremont factory is getting to be more intents!
... I. I’ll see myself out
Lycanthrope
S3XY old dude
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Is that the tesla.com traffic ranking?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Exactly, and the user he replied to had no connection to Elon other than Elon liking one of his tweets long ago, which probably made his subsequent tweets more prominent in Elon's Twitter feed. Elon didn't follow him, so it wasn't in his regular feed, but in the comments to Elon's tweet about fonts.
My guess: Elon saw the FSD question, of which there are numerous in every single comment section of Elon's tweets (really, just check it), and yesterday Elon decided that it's time to post a small update about feature-complete FSD, on a weekend, outside trading hours: "soon".
IMO it's absolutely an announcement, possibly subject to the Elon time dilation factor - but best-case the HW3 based City Navigation FSD update could start rolling out to the early access program in as little as a few days. HW3 is already active via the visualization preview, and Tesla is probably already collecting broader city driving object recognition feedback from the fleet.
If the City Navigation update goes well I'd also expect a price hike of FSD from $7,000 to $8,000, conveniently timed to the Q1 end of quarter push, I.e. a "FSD price will increase on April 1 (this is not a joke)" type of announcement by Elon sometime in February-March.
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New Gigavideo:
Lots of new construction, land prep, and parking lot demo going on, but two things that people might miss.
1) The buildings on the northeast side that would have been in the way of the Y line? They're being demoed
As a reminder of what used to be there:
2) There's a foundation for something heavy being built in the building adjacent to the press line. Perhaps it's a second press line, to support the Y?
Lots of new construction, land prep, and parking lot demo going on, but two things that people might miss.
1) The buildings on the northeast side that would have been in the way of the Y line? They're being demoed
As a reminder of what used to be there:
2) There's a foundation for something heavy being built in the building adjacent to the press line. Perhaps it's a second press line, to support the Y?
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Thanks, it was a very well thought out video.
I see the Gen4 cars as important, even in a world with working Robo-Taxis, there are some Robo-taxi jobs Gen4 cars can do.
If Tesla are eventually making 20 Million cars per year, then my guess is at least 5 Million will be Gen4.
It may take a few years to get the design done, but both Tesla and China have a track record of moving fast... and I have no doubt about the talent available in China, Germany and the US. So while Chinese staff will do most of the work, I'm sure German and US staff will help and they will start from existing knowledge and existing components..
Keep in mind the battery can be smaller and perhaps higher energy density, the car will be smaller and lighter, there are efficiency gains and cost savings at this end of the scale .. with smart design, talented people, and existing knowledge.
And in terms of using raw materials efficiently, every vehicle should be sized for the job it does...
Apart from making money, the aim is to retire the ICE fleet ASAP, Gen4 is compatible with both aims.
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uselesslogin
Supporting Member
Yes, the Cybertruck reveal seems to have had a very significant effect on the traffic rating potentially amplifying demand for the current vehicles. Also Tesla has apparently achieved 1337 status.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
This explains the lack of any "end of quarter push" special deals in Q4: almost all inventory not bolted down was sold by December 31. (And there are rumors of Elon running around with a bolt cutter.)
This should help Q1 too, because fewer people will now wait until end of March in the hope of price cuts, making it difficult for Tesla to manage the "wave".
This! Spot on. Wouldn't be surprised to see FSD option @ $10k by the end of 2020.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
New Gigavideo:
Lots of new construction, land prep, and parking lot demo going on, but two things that people might miss.
1) The buildings on the northeast side that would have been in the way of the Y line? They're being demoed
2) There's a foundation for something heavy being built in the building adjacent to the press line. Perhaps it's a second press line, to support the Y?
The amount of activity is phenomenal compared to when the China GF was being constructed. Now, swarms of brand new Model 3's charging up for their new owners and being staged for delivery. That alone would scare the *holy water* right out of me if I was sitting on a short position right now! Now it looks like the Model Y is going to hit the market earlier than expected worldwide.
Oh, wait, that's right, I heard they lose money on every car they make and the more cars they make, the more they lose. Whew!
Jokes aside, that has me thinking. Even though Elon said the GF3 margins per car will be similar to Freemont, what do you think are the chances for an upside surprise? After all, he did say that after he switched to his "under-promise and over-deliver" mode.
Also, the Yuan has been strengthening since last summer which makes the cars more valuable in USD. That's probably one reason they were able to reduce the sales price in China recently but it looks to me like it will continue to strengthen in the coming months.
1) The buildings on the northeast side that would have been in the way of the Y line? They're being demoed
Thanks for highlighting this. Is there any info that the Model Y production will be build there?
I know Tesla likes to build parking lots just to demolish them a month later (and I'm fine with that), but isn't it more logical to build the Y building in the south-east corner (upper right in the below image). There is land preparation going on for more than a month now and they demolished the container and car storage lots there.
The south-east building in the render is longer and has no stamping "module". Its paint module is adjacent to the southern stream hub building (which is next to the energy hub).
This means more parallel lines for the Y are possible, (if the paint shop can keep up).
Either way, the stamping module of the Model 3 building would just be adjacent to the start of the BIW line of the Y building.
Pile driving for the Model 3 building stared in January 2019, so a muddy ground does not matter for that
source: Jay in Shanghai on Twitter
Yeah, I think so too. In the above render, the stamping module is longer than it currently is built. This extension would fit the render.
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New Gigavideo:
Lots of new construction, land prep, and parking lot demo going on, but two things that people might miss.
1) The buildings on the northeast side that would have been in the way of the Y line? They're being demoed
View attachment 499262
As a reminder of what used to be there:
View attachment 499265
2) There's a foundation for something heavy being built in the building adjacent to the press line. Perhaps it's a second press line, to support the Y?
View attachment 499264
3) I counted 8 trailers loading M3s, presumably to bring to a delivery center. Six cars at a time, so that means 48 cars being simultaneously sent off to a delivery center at the time of filming.
4) So many buses! I assume these are for transporting employees to and from the factory?
aubreymcfato
Supporting Member
1-3 sec: show Cybertruck
4 sec: black screen, silver text: "ok, hummer"
5sec: Tesla logo.
Game, set, match.
They could do so much with those three seconds. Simultaneously have steel balls thrown at the glass (not by Franz!
), the doors shot, the car sledgehammered (maybe even a small wrecking ball), someone fire at it with a flamethrower, and a magnetic crane (being powered by the AC outlet in the bed) drop a tonne of steel scrap into the bed when it's unplugged.If you can allocate a few more seconds, you could then have it climb a steep incline with a high approach angle and out of frame.
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Just split the screen N-ways and show all of it at once.They could do so much with those three seconds. Simultaneously have steel balls thrown at the glass (not by Franz!
If you can allocate a few more seconds, you could then have it climb a steep incline with a high approach angle and out of frame.
I wasn't picturing a split screen - I was picturing all of that coming from all angles simultaneously
I'm posting here given its a weekend, but if you have comments on the model please reply in the Earnings Projections Thread: Near-future quarterly financial projections
Q419 Earnings Estimates:
P&L
Revenue $7,325m (+$1,022m QoQ, +$100m YoY):
Gross Profit $1,430m
Opex $970m
Net Income $269m (+$58m YoY, +$118m QoQ)
GAAP diluted EPS $1.5, Non GAAP EPS $2.6:
Key Revenue & Margin Assumptions:
In this model I have kept Model 3 like for like production cost flat QoQ. This excludes credit revenue, one off software upgrades (Acceleration boost), deferred FSD recognition and China one off ramp costs which have all been broken out separately.
I think flat production cost QoQ is likely conservative - Tesla has consistently reduced production costs QoQ & > production drives > margins (fixed cost leverage, < staff hours/car, supplier scale saving passed on). Main risks are larger one off GF3 headwind & more +ve one offs in Q
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow: $1,476m ($1,031m before Working Capital)
Free Cash Flow: $976m
My cash flow statements use different presentation & include many estimates for past Q line items but Operating Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow for Q4 uses Tesla definition.
My Cash Gross Profit Line = Gross Profit plus non cash cost addbacks for Depreciation, Warranty Reserve and Net Deferred Revenue
Net debt down $871m QoQ to $6,266m.
Net debt/EBITDA down to 2.6x from 4.4x at 4Q18.
Net recourse debt down more than half YoY to $1,765m from $3,702m at 4Q18. This includes $4,200m converts which are all in the money (but not convertible until 3 months before maturity).
Q4 Total Liquidity: $9,666m.
Including $6,233m unrestricted cash and $3,433m undrawn bank lines.
I would expect to see credit rating upgrades after Q4.
Q419 Earnings Estimates:
P&L
Revenue $7,325m (+$1,022m QoQ, +$100m YoY):
Gross Profit $1,430m
Opex $970m
Net Income $269m (+$58m YoY, +$118m QoQ)
GAAP diluted EPS $1.5, Non GAAP EPS $2.6:
Key Revenue & Margin Assumptions:
In this model I have kept Model 3 like for like production cost flat QoQ. This excludes credit revenue, one off software upgrades (Acceleration boost), deferred FSD recognition and China one off ramp costs which have all been broken out separately.
I think flat production cost QoQ is likely conservative - Tesla has consistently reduced production costs QoQ & > production drives > margins (fixed cost leverage, < staff hours/car, supplier scale saving passed on). Main risks are larger one off GF3 headwind & more +ve one offs in Q
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow: $1,476m ($1,031m before Working Capital)
Free Cash Flow: $976m
My cash flow statements use different presentation & include many estimates for past Q line items but Operating Cash Flow & Free Cash Flow for Q4 uses Tesla definition.
My Cash Gross Profit Line = Gross Profit plus non cash cost addbacks for Depreciation, Warranty Reserve and Net Deferred Revenue
Net debt down $871m QoQ to $6,266m.
Net debt/EBITDA down to 2.6x from 4.4x at 4Q18.
Net recourse debt down more than half YoY to $1,765m from $3,702m at 4Q18. This includes $4,200m converts which are all in the money (but not convertible until 3 months before maturity).
Q4 Total Liquidity: $9,666m.
Including $6,233m unrestricted cash and $3,433m undrawn bank lines.
I would expect to see credit rating upgrades after Q4.
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ammulder
'98 GS400 -> P3D+
I think the limit works the other way -- as soon as they hit a limit of another gigafactory being affordable, they might want to do it. In order to keep the exponential growth going past perhaps 2023, they will need to plant factories like weeds. As Fremont and Shanghai and Berlin approach their full capacity, there will need to be more factories hitting their stride. (Even three more factories of the 500K/yr to 1M/yr scale would only double max production over the current three, which gives them what, two or three years of this kind of growth? Good through 2025-2026? By then they need another six factories to double again? This exponential thing is crazy.)
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