Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register
  • We just completed a significant update, but we still have some fixes and adjustments to make, so please bear with us for the time being. Cheers!

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
Whoops, looks like the Glovis Symphony made a wrong turn on its way to China and ended up in Uruguay! ;)

GLOVIS SYMPHONY Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9702429) - VesselFinder

upload_2019-2-9_7-43-55.png


(I assume that this is an error ;) Otherwise: Congratulations to South American Tesla fans!!! ;) )
 

Sunlight

Member
May 7, 2014
329
729
South Africa
Goodness (wtf actually) this thread moves so fast it is dangerous to have a night's sleep!

After scanning through the latest batch of new pages I see lots of hand wringing/intellectualizing/speculating about the price drop/demand/production numbers etc. Everyone trying to second guess Elon and/or Tesla

I suspect that Tesla (Elon?) has a fantastic and complex AI system that crunches all the facts at a billion times the speed of light to assess all the alternatives and cost points mixed in with demand/order figures. This then spits out the 'facts' - drop the price so much/make so many/cut this cost and so on - and off Tesla go down this route.

Of course all these decisions and run past Elon for final approval as he can forward think as well (better?) and as fast as the AI system.

No wonder the rest of us get confused and speculate as if we have a clue of what is actually happening 'behind the scenes'......

But it is fun and some have quite a good record - some not so much!
 

oneday

Active Member
Nov 29, 2014
1,074
4,740
Bay Area
Whoops, looks like the Glovis Symphony made a wrong turn on its way to China and ended up in Uruguay! ;)

GLOVIS SYMPHONY Current position (Vehicles Carrier, IMO 9702429) - VesselFinder

View attachment 375750

(I assume that this is an error ;) Otherwise: Congratulations to South American Tesla fans!!! ;) )
Try here: Vessel details for: GLOVIS SYMPHONY (Vehicles Carrier) - IMO 9702429, MMSI 538005672, Call Sign V7FX2 Registered in Marshall Is | AIS Marine Traffic

It shows Japan/ East China Sea. Expected in port in two days.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

How many times does it need to be pointed out that they have a significantly higher margin on US sales than they do on European sales, even after the price cut, for any given model? E.g.: even after the price cut, an AWD sold in the US has something like a 3-4% higher margin than one sold in Europe (check the math for yourself). So unless you think that they can keep shipping only loaded-up Ps to Europe indefinitely, why shouldn't they encourage more of their higher-margin US sales?

Their production costs are falling. Have been falling. Will be falling. All conjugations are correct and applicable. Getting production costs down - and thus prices down - is the goal. So that the total addressable market will be larger. This is the whole bloody point.

Because a gas or diesel vehicle isn’t prone to range loss in the same conditions. It just continues to putter at 75mph, into headwinds and gets 95mpg.

Yeah, I’m tired of the ridiculous attention this is getting as if ICE’s aren’t also affected. Nobody talks about it because hardly anybody even knows what their gas tank mileage is.

Well put. There was this ridiculous article the other day from a guy who described freezing inside his EV in the winter stuck in traffic, with the heater shut off, trying to conserve range, like a scene out of Apollo 13. Why? Because he set off on a freezing-cold day with only 50km/30mi range remaining. Aka, for a gas car: "I left home with the tank so low that the gas light was on." What was his excuse for doing something so ridiculous? Well, he'd forgotten to charge - aka, "I forgot to get gas the other night." So does he stop at a charger partway through his trip, after the battery has heated up (aka, "stop at a gas station"), just long enough to add another 10-20km? No, of course he does not.

What exactly do people expect? If that had been a gas car he would have been shutting off his idling engine in traffic to save gas, and still would have been freezing cold. It reminds me of all of the "ZOMG what if I had been driving an EV?" concern trolling back when Hurricane Maria hit Florida, when in reality Tesla owners had a breeze of the evacuation, with no problems, while it was gasoline car drivers who struggled to get fuel, were shutting off their cars (and thus AC, on dangerously hot days), and some were even pushing their cars when stuck in traffic to conserve those last drops.

What is PUP?

800px-Chihuahua_puppy_001.jpg
 
Last edited:

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland
"If the Tesla Model S had been designed in 1936" (Source: Automobile Magazine):

1936-Tesla-Model-S-sketch.jpg


Looks to me be roughly based on the DeSoto Airflow or other early experiments in vehicle streamlining - down to the sofa-like bench seating. I like the old-timey TV-screen display in the dash ;) The "backstory" involves Nikola Tesla deciding to revolutionize transport to promote his AC distribution system.

They have a lot of fun ones there:

What If Today's Cars Were Designed Decades Ago?

I like the 1977 Prius, for example (obvious backstory: an answer to the oil embargo):

1977-Toyota-Prius.jpg
 
Last edited:

EVMeister

Lover of Tesla
Apr 8, 2018
1,549
10,427
England
Afterall - with all that has happened with Tesla over the last 18 months, the stock price hasn't moved much.

This has been disheartening for investors like me (and members of my family) who opened their investment around 2 years ago. Seeing the company go from strength to strength, but the stock price ending up pretty much where it started. But we all have a longer term vision. The fact that the stock price clearly doesn't reflect the achievements of the company has meant I have been comfortable accumulating a much larger number of shares than I otherwise would have. I've got a long-term horizon and I'm all too aware of what has happened to the stock in the periods before I invested. I hope and I think this patience will be rewarded in the end.
 
Jan 18, 2019
417
4,702
Mars Gigafactory 1
Yes - even the shorts didn't try to push the SP down much after the news came out. I hope you can survive when the base SR comes out. Tesla had worldwide reservation of 400k for ca car starting $35k. Some 300k was from US/Canada. They have managed to sell 150k cars without coming close to that $35k.

Basically you can't sell only in China/EU. You have to keep selling in US as well.
Some 300K was from IS and Canada? I don’t remember reading something like that. Can you provide additional info?
 

RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,301
City of Champions, USA
Just remember, providing a drive train is essentially free money for Tesla (no risk of sales, etc., its just produce what you are paid to) and in no way prevents them from entering those markets. It could also give Tesla an opportunity to (essentially) beta test a different drive train without bearing all the risks themselves.

For example, say you have an idea for how to approach the drive train of a truck. You think it's good, but to really prove it out you need production. Someone else is offering to pay you money to produce the drive train at a profit, and they bear the market risk. You learn from the production, take your lessons learned, and eventually produce a new drive train for your own trucks. In other words, someone else is paying you to do R&D.

Let's say it works out great for the this other auto manufacturer and they get some good EV trucks selling as a result. This is a win for the Tesla mission (accelerating EV adoption), but is it really that great for the auto manufacturer? What do they really have to show for it? That they outsourced the drive train, but they have no in-house knowledge built up. Unless Tesla sells them production rights at the end of the day they are beholden to Tesla.

The way I see it is the only way this can work out for the other manufacturer is if they use the deal with Tesla to get a jump on the market and develop their own technology in parallel. That could work, but it depends on them becoming competitive with Tesla before Tesla enters the market segment -- and quite frankly, if they were able to then they wouldn't need Tesla to help them.

So I see no way in which Tesla is forfeiting anything. In fact, they are getting paid for R&D. I'd be more worried about the other guy. Maybe they'll have a contract that protects them better than it looks, but since Tesla is bargaining from a position of strength I really doubt it.

I think the most important point IF a Detroit Co mass marketed a Tesla drivetrain for full size pickups would be validation in the eyes of the truck owning public.

How can Chevy fans ridicule electric trucks if they are mass marketed by Chevy.

Or Ford fans if it is an E-F150 or Ram fans it is an E-Ram ?
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,828
Iceland

"The first milestone comes in 2020, when Toyota plans to introduce vehicles capable of driving themselves on highways."

Read: an AP-wannabe, at least a year from now ;)

"Part of the challenge will be cultivating a Silicon Valley-like corporate culture in the middle of Tokyo. TRI-AD will target development of "production-quality software for automated driving," partly by harnessing big data collected from connected vehicles."

Step 1 to "harness big data collected from connected vehicles": Actually have big data from connected vehicles (*cough* Tesla *cough*).
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,365
-
Don’t know how I feel about these rumours of Tesla partnering up with other Auto companies to provide the drivetrain for vans and trucks.

As a human being, this is great news. As an investor, it seems a shame to forfeit such a huge market in exchange for only a couple of grand of profit per vehicle.

Tesla Model 3 LR full EV Powertrain and Battery likely costs around $7k per car excluding cell costs. Assuming 25% gross margin, that could be c.$9k per car revenue to Tesla and $2.2k gross profit. A Pickup would also be a lot larger than a Model 3.

upload_2019-2-9_10-45-38.png
 
Last edited:

Dan Detweiler

Active Member
Apr 21, 2016
3,005
12,474
Canton, Georgia
"If the Tesla Model S had been designed in 1936" (Source: Automobile Magazine):

1936-Tesla-Model-S-sketch.jpg


Looks to me be roughly based on the DeSoto Airflow or other early experiments in vehicle streamlining - down to the sofa-like bench seating. I like the old-timey TV-screen display in the dash ;) The "backstory" involves Nikola Tesla deciding to revolutionize transport to promote his AC distribution system.

They have a lot of fun ones there:

What If Today's Cars Were Designed Decades Ago?

I like the 1977 Prius, for example (obvious backstory: an answer to the oil embargo):

1977-Toyota-Prius.jpg
Love these pics. The Tesla sort of reminds me of a Tucker and those 70's louver back windows. Never did get those. Always thought they were ugly.

Dan
 
  • Love
Reactions: UncaNed

Dan Detweiler

Active Member
Apr 21, 2016
3,005
12,474
Canton, Georgia
I think the most important point IF a Detroit Co mass marketed a Tesla drivetrain for full size pickups would be validation in the eyes of the truck owning public.

How can Chevy fans ridicule electric trucks if they are mass marketed by Chevy.

Or Ford fans if it is an E-F150 or Ram fans it is an E-Ram ?
I think the place where the EV truck will take hold first is in fleet sales.Construction companies and the like that don't give a damn about looks, image, perception, etc. Just the bottom line. Once they are firmly in the workforce the general public will start to come around.

Dan
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top