Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

With the smaller vehicle in mind, could it not be called the Model C? For "China" or "Compact". Not sure that traslates well in the Chinese market, but seems to fit.

How about borrowing names from SpaceX? Falcon or Dragon? Names like 1 or C may be taken, even if not in use, could be trademarked, like the Model E name. So C1 might be an option. Conjecture about conjecture at this point.

 

[Cherry Wine]

It's completely normal for stocks on an upward trajectory to trade in the red periodically. It would be ridiculous if it was never in the red! The good news has been steady and powerful but stocks never trade in straight lines.

I'm actually more concerned that the little micro-corrections are not sharper to the downside than the fact we are trading a little in the red. Hopefully, that is just an indication that there are a lot of short positions with their fingers hovering over the "buy to cover" button. Because normal trading in the middle of a run-up like this would have larger moves to the downside before heading higher.

Agreed. From my understanding, this stock is trading somewhat like one headed for a blow-off top, where the pullbacks are short and shallow. I think there are valid reasons for that based on circumstances surrounding the stock, ie. fundamental developments and short interest, but nevertheless it bears watching.

 

[Artful Dodger]

However, it would be strange if Tesla China imports cobalt, given that cobalt cannot legally be exported from China.

The Lingang Special Area, part of the larger Shanghai Free Trade Zone is not "in" China for export purposes. Its one of the main points Tesla negotiated with the Gov't of China before choosing Lingang as the site for GF3.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

How about borrowing names from SpaceX? Falcon or Dragon? Names like 1 or C may be taken, even if not in use, could be trademarked, like the Model E name. So C1 might be an option. Conjecture about conjecture at this point.

One word: Thundercougarfalconbird.

 

[Cherry Wine]

They're convinced that Q1 is going to be horrible, a repeat of Q1 last year.

This is going to be glorious

BRB leveraging up.

 

[humbaba]

if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.

 

[jbcarioca]

I believe USA to Europe comparison is a good one. Europe has more choices for longer distance travel. My trips in Europe have made me love rail, especially high speed rail. We simply dont have rail as a choice in the USA. Then throw in by the time a compact comes out the SuperCharger network will be even more built out. So one of the choices you make when you choose the smaller compact vehicle is that if you are going to make a long distance trip is to use the SuperCharger network or opt for a more expensive battery.

Sure, for vacationing foreigners that is true, as it is for a very gradually increasing proportion of Europeans. It's even true to my Portuguese niece who trains to Croatia for her holidays. For a very many Europeans their only car will be a VW Golf/Peugeot 308 or similar. It was so for me during 25 years in France and the UK. The point is that for Tesla share price and auto sales volume vehicles in this category will be exceedingly important. One need not go further than to view existing vehicle sales data to understand that point. It actually need not be an opinion. Since such charts are regualrly published here and elsewhere, I don't quote them here.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Trump speech right now?

 

[ReflexFunds]

if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.

At $200 share price shorts increasing their stake by $2 billion was 10 million shares. Now $2bn is just dumping 3.6 million shares. Doesn’t do nearly so much damage.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Some parts of the Model 3 line were built for the full 10k/week initial target (likely stamping & paint shop). Is there space to expand the stamp/paint shop etc capacity from 10k per week to 12k (7k 3, 5k Y) or 14k (7k 3, 7k Y)?

Great post. A quick question on paint: are you aware that @kengchang recently posted a permit for "South Paint"? Does that change your calculus with regard to paint shop capacity, or is that already factored in? I am not super knowledgeable on the nitty-gritty of Fremont.

New permits
View attachment 499892

Looks like South paint will be online soon

 

[pyromatter]

 

[TheTalkingMule]

They're convinced that Q1 is going to be horrible, a repeat of Q1 last year.

This is going to be glorious

That's what I don't understand. How can 1Q20 look anything but amazing? Imagine how the algos are gonna react relative to 1Q19 with 1Q20 numbers plugged in AND the current chart action AND the level of short interest AND all the upgrades. That's pretty much a perfect storm for May without any real effort or announcements.

I think Battery Day on top of all this is really gonna blow the lid off. And I'm not a rocketship SP guy. I think our rational range for 2020/21 is $380-680 depending on macros. We may crush that by the 4th of July if these idiots are really still short.

 

[shootformoon]

Now i think the performance pricing is too low compared to LR. Since performance production is a mostly fixed ratio of LR, and customers have to wait longer than LR(8-10week vs 5-8), that means the demand is too high at this price. How can you let your higher margin customers wait longer than? They need to increase performance price.

I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s

 

[Mike Ambler]

No. When people were talking about hatchbacks the other day, and I said that I think it's unlikely Tesla would do a hatchback soon (more likely later as battery prices drop and energy and power densities rise), my interpretation was precisely of hatchbacks.

Hail me with small sharp stones, but I like this!

 

[madodel]

Wow. Those folks are REALLY gambling on this being a bubble rather than an adjustment.

They BELIEVE. They believe it is all a fraud and facts won't convince them otherwise.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now if Musk were pushing cars running on natural gas they'd put a statue of him on the Philly Art Museum steps.

Two points:

• The EIA forecasts that natural gas will fuel 39 percent of overall electricity generation in the PJM Interconnection region by next year, up from 31 percent in 2018 (Sep 19, 2019)

• SpaceX Raptor rocket engines use natural gas for propellant

Elon should still be their hero. Jus' sayin'.

Cheers!

 

[pnungesser]

Yeah, and they're "shifting gears" while "running hot" and "guzzling gas". /s

The fossilized speech of the 20th Century must be retired. We really need a new idiom of speech for a new Century. People frequently ask me where you put the gas in an electric car, lol.

So how about "peak performance" as the new phrase? For example, rephrasing this analyst's statement as "Tesla truly seems to be running at peak performance". Simple, aliterative, and catchy.

Wordsmiths want to know!

Cheers!

Knowing how motors work, I still like "Pulling on All Poles".

 

[Artful Dodger]

I mean, we still use "horsepower".

Lol, y'all still use Fahrenheit. The rest of the world uses Kilowatts*...

Cheers!

1.8 metric bucks for the 1st 'Funny' WITH explanation...

 

[madodel]

if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.

A friend of mine said her son is shorting TSLA since the new breakout highs. He had been shorting TSLA for a long time but covered when they hit production guidance. If he is shorting then some folks with serious money are doing the same as he advises some heavy hitters. So I believe there is a lot of shorting going on. Hopefully the ER shows a profit and then we resume the rise.

 

[lascavarian]

In other news, Pennsylvania's government is a shambles (multiple top government officials making fun of Musk on Twitter).

Pennsylvania Treasury. on Twitter
John Fetterman on Twitter

PA has worked modestly with Tesla but it could be much better. I don't know about the treasury account but generally Fetterman is a good guy who I think would be happy to work with EM and he said as much in one of his tweets I think. There are interesting videos (TEDx) on YouTube about his work as mayor of Braddock, PA. I believe he is a advocate for decriminalization of MJ. PA needs more like him. His life has had a strange arc. He probably has a shot at being Governor someday.

John Fetterman (politician) - Wikipedia

PA has been ravaged by strip mining and the collapse of the steel and coal industries such that the center of the state tends to seethe with aggrievement-fueled rage. There has been an unrelenting social media campaign over years to divide the states struggling rural regions (no jobs) from the urban regions. It has worked well.