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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

humbaba

sleeping until $7000
Aug 25, 2018
2,249
13,141
planet earth
if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,620
29,793
I believe USA to Europe comparison is a good one. Europe has more choices for longer distance travel. My trips in Europe have made me love rail, especially high speed rail. We simply dont have rail as a choice in the USA. Then throw in by the time a compact comes out the SuperCharger network will be even more built out. So one of the choices you make when you choose the smaller compact vehicle is that if you are going to make a long distance trip is to use the SuperCharger network or opt for a more expensive battery.
Sure, for vacationing foreigners that is true, as it is for a very gradually increasing proportion of Europeans. It's even true to my Portuguese niece who trains to Croatia for her holidays. For a very many Europeans their only car will be a VW Golf/Peugeot 308 or similar. It was so for me during 25 years in France and the UK. The point is that for Tesla share price and auto sales volume vehicles in this category will be exceedingly important. One need not go further than to view existing vehicle sales data to understand that point. It actually need not be an opinion. Since such charts are regualrly published here and elsewhere, I don't quote them here.
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,367
-
if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.

At $200 share price shorts increasing their stake by $2 billion was 10 million shares. Now $2bn is just dumping 3.6 million shares. Doesn’t do nearly so much damage.
 

Cherry Wine

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Oct 4, 2018
2,592
20,619
California
Some parts of the Model 3 line were built for the full 10k/week initial target (likely stamping & paint shop). Is there space to expand the stamp/paint shop etc capacity from 10k per week to 12k (7k 3, 5k Y) or 14k (7k 3, 7k Y)?

Great post. A quick question on paint: are you aware that @kengchang recently posted a permit for "South Paint"? Does that change your calculus with regard to paint shop capacity, or is that already factored in? I am not super knowledgeable on the nitty-gritty of Fremont.

New permits
View attachment 499892

Looks like South paint will be online soon
 

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
7,245
27,829
Philadelphia, PA
They're convinced that Q1 is going to be horrible, a repeat of Q1 last year.

This is going to be glorious ;)
That's what I don't understand. How can 1Q20 look anything but amazing? Imagine how the algos are gonna react relative to 1Q19 with 1Q20 numbers plugged in AND the current chart action AND the level of short interest AND all the upgrades. That's pretty much a perfect storm for May without any real effort or announcements.

I think Battery Day on top of all this is really gonna blow the lid off. And I'm not a rocketship SP guy. I think our rational range for 2020/21 is $380-680 depending on macros. We may crush that by the 4th of July if these idiots are really still short.
 

shootformoon

Member
Jul 1, 2018
247
773
universe
Now i think the performance pricing is too low compared to LR. Since performance production is a mostly fixed ratio of LR, and customers have to wait longer than LR(8-10week vs 5-8), that means the demand is too high at this price. How can you let your higher margin customers wait longer than? They need to increase performance price.


I checked on delivery estimates for Model 3, S and X. All three models are 2-3 months out in the US, which means Q1 is essentially sold out. I guess that means the factory is closed for the next month since there is no demand.... /s
 

Mike Ambler

Member
Apr 11, 2016
60
219
ITALY
No. When people were talking about hatchbacks the other day, and I said that I think it's unlikely Tesla would do a hatchback soon (more likely later as battery prices drop and energy and power densities rise), my interpretation was precisely of hatchbacks.

Hail me with small sharp stones, but I like this!
upload_2020-1-15_18-22-40.jpeg
 
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Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
9,747
127,005
Canada
Now if Musk were pushing cars running on natural gas they'd put a statue of him on the Philly Art Museum steps.
Two points:
  • The EIA forecasts that natural gas will fuel 39 percent of overall electricity generation in the PJM Interconnection region by next year, up from 31 percent in 2018 (Sep 19, 2019)
  • SpaceX Raptor rocket engines use natural gas for propellant
Elon should still be their hero. Jus' sayin'. ;)

Cheers!
 

pnungesser

BarNun
Dec 9, 2015
284
1,327
Mill Spring, NC
Yeah, and they're "shifting gears" while "running hot" and "guzzling gas". /s

The fossilized speech of the 20th Century must be retired. We really need a new idiom of speech for a new Century. People frequently ask me where you put the gas in an electric car, lol.

So how about "peak performance" as the new phrase? For example, rephrasing this analyst's statement as "Tesla truly seems to be running at peak performance". Simple, aliterative, and catchy.

Wordsmiths want to know! :)

Cheers!

Knowing how motors work, I still like "Pulling on All Poles".
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Supporting Member
Apr 6, 2015
2,669
10,830
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
if @ihors3 is correct about the short interest (even a stopped clock is right twice a day) that could explain today's pullback: a large amount of short selling can, temporarily at least, overwhelm buying demand. However, if that is indeed the case, it is very significant that such high volumes of short selling have not triggered a crash as they would have (and did) in 2019. In fact, if memory serves, most of the crashes last year that were driven by short selling occurred on low volume days.

Now, I don't think it is granted that @ihors3 is correct and short interest is rising. But I do find it interesting to think about the implications.
A friend of mine said her son is shorting TSLA since the new breakout highs. He had been shorting TSLA for a long time but covered when they hit production guidance. If he is shorting then some folks with serious money are doing the same as he advises some heavy hitters. So I believe there is a lot of shorting going on. Hopefully the ER shows a profit and then we resume the rise.
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,274
6,959
usa
In other news, Pennsylvania's government is a shambles (multiple top government officials making fun of Musk on Twitter).

Pennsylvania Treasury. on Twitter
John Fetterman on Twitter

PA has worked modestly with Tesla but it could be much better. I don't know about the treasury account but generally Fetterman is a good guy who I think would be happy to work with EM and he said as much in one of his tweets I think. There are interesting videos (TEDx) on YouTube about his work as mayor of Braddock, PA. I believe he is a advocate for decriminalization of MJ. PA needs more like him. His life has had a strange arc. He probably has a shot at being Governor someday.

John Fetterman (politician) - Wikipedia

PA has been ravaged by strip mining and the collapse of the steel and coal industries such that the center of the state tends to seethe with aggrievement-fueled rage. There has been an unrelenting social media campaign over years to divide the states struggling rural regions (no jobs) from the urban regions. It has worked well.
 

Nocturnal

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Aug 23, 2018
6,685
35,852
Deepening Crisis!
That's what I don't understand. How can 1Q20 look anything but amazing? Imagine how the algos are gonna react relative to 1Q19 with 1Q20 numbers plugged in AND the current chart action AND the level of short interest AND all the upgrades. That's pretty much a perfect storm for May without any real effort or announcements.

I think Battery Day on top of all this is really gonna blow the lid off. And I'm not a rocketship SP guy. I think our rational range for 2020/21 is $380-680 depending on macros. We may crush that by the 4th of July if these idiots are really still short.
I think if Q1 is just decent that will be a big win. Longs are so traumatized to expect horrible Q1 numbers and shorts are betting on it.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,913
94,187
USA
Last edited:

Hock1

Member
Jan 21, 2017
716
6,828
Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
You have to have a supplier until then. It's also in the goals for Tesla to make its own cells, yet they're still using LG in China.
If Bloomberg wanted to be more accurate (and they don't), the Headline would have read "Tesla in talks to buy cobalt from Glencore". Tesla is not buying the Glencore's cobalt company.

Edit: I see now that another has made the same point.
 

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