Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ProfTournesol]

With the expirations out of the way, wouldn't we expect to see a recovery on Monday with all things considered equal?

As long as there is no good news I don't expect any great movements anymore. The ER has to do it, hopefully it works out. I'm still wondering why they didn't announce the date yet.

 

[ProfTournesol]

Goes green today, like it always does when it gaps down due to a downgrade

How? The MMD will dip it to -5% / -6% or somebody is getting ready to launch it on the opening bell, but I don't see a reason why.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm still wondering why they didn't announce the date yet.

Because this is EoY. It always takes longer.

 

[uselesslogin]

l


ok i found historical on Tencent

Q3 2019 - 8,347,094
Q4 2019 - 0

looks like they divested

What kind of historical? I just don't understand how Bloomberg could know anything more than what is in the 13Gs. And for that matter I would think there is no way they were holding 8.3M shares in 2019. If I'm thinking about strategic filing usually you want to buy/sell more than what you file for. So they filed on March 28th for 5% as of March 14th. That gave them 2 weeks to keep buying who knows how much but certainly not more than 10% which is another filing threshold. Then at the end of the year it is almost like they were sneaky since everyone has to file their December 31st share count if it changes, but if that count is under 5% they don't have to file anymore after that one. So they filed for 4.97% on February 12th (2018). It looks like a regular year end small update but no one noticed they went under the reporting threshold. So, my personal speculation is they may have sold down to something significantly smaller than 5% in January 2018. Maybe that is 3.5% or maybe that is 0 but at this point I don't think anyone or any service can really know.

 

[Unpilot]

This wish for lower SP is sad on one level.

That is the effect it has on the people that build the company. The line workers...office workers. Many are probably like me....not very sophisticated in the area of leverage..or margin...of options.

What they see is the value of the company and for many I assume by extension themselves being driven down.

Every time the SP falls I'm willing to bet it has some non zero negative effect on lots of people that actually create value for all of us here.

Something to keep in mind.

Peace.

 

[AlexS]

Do you guys think buy today or buy tomorrow? With Max Pain for this week currently at $450 and probably still only $460 or $470 tomorrow, it seems like tomorrow might be the better buy point. But this stock is so all over the place its hard to know.

I think for me 500 looks like new 300, buying around 500 seem right. And highest PUT value for tomorrow is sitting at 500, I am not sure if market makers are willing to pay out these puts. Maybe I am delusional, also possible.

We need ER date. But it is possible that ER will be held maybe in the end of February, because of some information they don't want to release earlier.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Best analysis of how and why TSLA on I’ve seen. Check it out.

Excellent.

I could be delusional on this, but I think by 2030 more than 50% of new cars sold will be EVs. If 30% adoption is “painful”, that suggests 50% is lethal to the incumbent ICE manufacturers.

They are the walking dead.

Keep in mind that total sales might very well shrink dramatically on the evaporation of demand for classic cars.

Incidentally, Tesla just has to keep on scaling and reducing cell costs.

In the meantime, Swiss data for 2019 [reminder - no federal incentives for EVs, while cantonal policies will vary]:

Top Ten Modelle Januar - Dezember 2019
1 Škoda Octavia 9280
2 VW Tiguan 7018
3 VW Golf 6596
4 Tesla Model 3 5028
5 Mercedes-Benz GLC-Klasse 4743
6 Mercedes-Benz A-Klasse 4672
7 Škoda Kodiaq 4594
8 Škoda Karoq 4344
9 Mercedes-Benz C-Klasse 4277
10 VW Polo 3933
...
Audi e-tron 683 ... Tesla Model X 528 ... Tesla Model S 505

Fertile ground for the Model Y, what with the Tiguan, GLC, Kodiaq and Karoq belonging to roughly the same segment.

Kudos once again to Prof. Dudenhöffer, one of Germany's foremost automotive experts, for predicting Tesla's rise by pointing to the early sales success of the Model S over here.

 

[Navin]

For those of you in NY - If you see Adam Jonas tonight in the meat packing district surrounded by models and 20/30 year old guys with Patagonia vests - pls don’t question. Just understand - this is the way.

 

[KarenRei]

This wish for lower SP is sad on one level.

That is the effect it has on the people that build the company. The line workers...office workers. Many are probably like me....not very sophisticated in the area of leverage..or margin...of options.

What they see is the value of the company and for many I assume by extension themselves being driven down.

Every time the SP falls I'm willing to bet it has some non zero negative effect on lots of people that actually create value for all of us here.

Something to keep in mind.

Peace.

I normally have this attitude. But some retracement 1) will let far more people who are worried that they missed the boat get back in, and 2) once it settles, comfort people who were worried about an unsustainable bubble (e.g., taking some heat off). If the stock never drops at all, people worry that it's going to explode downward.

In a flatlining or declining SP environment, I would share your concern. But not in the current environment. I mean, premarket is down to the terrible lows of... (checks the graph).... Monday morning.

 

[Boomer19]

What kind of historical? I just don't understand how Bloomberg could know anything more than what is in the 13Gs. And for that matter I would think there is no way they were holding 8.3M shares in 2019. If I'm thinking about strategic filing usually you want to buy/sell more than what you file for. So they filed on March 28th for 5% as of March 14th. That gave them 2 weeks to keep buying who knows how much but certainly not more than 10% which is another filing threshold. Then at the end of the year it is almost like they were sneaky since everyone has to file their December 31st share count if it changes, but if that count is under 5% they don't have to file anymore after that one. So they filed for 4.97% on February 12th (2018). It looks like a regular year end small update but no one noticed they went under the reporting threshold. So, my personal speculation is they may have sold down to something significantly smaller than 5% in January 2018. Maybe that is 3.5% or maybe that is 0 but at this point I don't think anyone or any service can really know.

bloomberg data vendor for st
(these are from 13Fs etc)

let me recheck that to find out what the hell is up with that data. either i made a major typo or they just have it wrong - it happens, i deal w them all the time.

 

[LJS22]

This wish for lower SP is sad on one level.

That is the effect it has on the people that build the company. The line workers...office workers. Many are probably like me....not very sophisticated in the area of leverage..or margin...of options.

What they see is the value of the company and for many I assume by extension themselves being driven down.

Every time the SP falls I'm willing to bet it has some non zero negative effect on lots of people that actually create value for all of us here.

Something to keep in mind.

Peace.

If Tesla keeps executing there is nothing to worry about. These new shorts will cover the moment they see profit on Q4 earnings.

Then depending on how aggressive Tesla’s guidance for 2020 is we will see a new wave of bets against Tesla. Right now it’s not making any sense, the ball is in Tesla’s court. Shorting now is just a lack of understanding of Tesla. Their best chance is to let Elon lay out some aggressive 2020 goals and place their bet then.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

ICE passenger vehicle sales will be far closer to 0% marketshare than 50% in 2030.

 

[farzyness]

A little pull back is healthy! This is a buying opportunity for a ton of folks.

 

[LJS22]

CNBC somehow just called Adam Jonas a genius “it may have taken a while to get here but Adam Jonas was right in a roundabout way” lol

Something about his December 5th letter saying he expects a surge but the company will be perceived as a traditional auto maker as time goes on. Then they called him a Tesla Bull.

 

[uselesslogin]

bloomberg data vendor for st
(these are from 13Fs etc)

let me recheck that to find out what the hell is up with that data. either i made a major typo or they just have it wrong - it happens, i deal w them all the time.

Cool, I'd be curious. I would expect they would publish the data as 8.3M shares on January 31st 2017, and then just move it to 0 after that since they can't know anymore. Maybe someone fixed it in 2019.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Morgan Stanley Cuts Tesla To Underweight From Equalweight, Raises PT To $360 From $250 $TSLA

$TSLA: MS DOWNGRADES BASED ON VALUATION, UNFAVORABLE RISK-REWARD, RISKS TO LONG-TERM CHINESE BUSINESS THAT MAY NOT BE FULLY APPRECIATED BY MARKET

I was trying to work out if this was good or bad, now I realise it's just BS.

Seems to be a coordinated attack to save the option writers going on.

 

[UncaNed]

Blah, wouldn’t have bought those shares yesterday if I could have anticipated this further dip. I’m keen to get some more LEAPs, but the prices were way too high.

That’s the wisdom to keep some cash at hand, I guess...

Another lesson learned. Many of them recently

So just sell enough shares to buy those LEAPS, no?

For a taxed account, be sure to sell older shares that you bought cheaper than you sell for (remember to assign by ID!) - and for a taxed account hold them for at least a year so it's taxed at capital gains rate.... Isn't that the way it works?

Please correct me out if I am wrong about any of this?? Much appreciated!

 

[LJS22]

I was trying to work out if this was good or bad, now I realise it's just BS.

Seems to be a coordinated attack to save the option writers going on.

It’s funny how intelligent they get when they are in position to benefit and how stupid they sound when they are trying to gain leverage.

 

[Boomer19]

Cool, I'd be curious. I would expect they would publish the data as 8.3M shares on January 31st 2017, and then just move it to 0 after that since they can't know anymore. Maybe someone fixed it in 2019.

the way that particular UI works is that it gives a list of current known (publicly filed) holdings and the last known position change and report date

i double checked Tencent and it is indeed the 8.347m number as of q3 i posted and currently 0

maybe just an error!

i only was focusing on 10c bc frankSG brought it up. but any major movement by anyone can have some relevance. also, i noticed that some people posted dated list of holdings. OR,
bloom is completely wrong, a paid service that uses fillings being incorrect is kinda bad for them, but like i said, it happens. i trust them over yahoo or some other googled site though. but one can dog all this up on edgar and compile their own list. bloomberg is just a shortcut

interesting nonetheless.

maybe we’ll see it corrected or find out otherwise. i’ll keep checking ove the coming weeks

 

[The Accountant]

Expectation for ER Date:
Last year, the 2018 Q4 earnings were released on Jan 30 and the 10K issued on Feb 19.
I expect this 2019 Q4 earnings to be on Wednesday Jan 29th perhaps a day or two later.