Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

Breaking news: Chinese MIC Model 3 orders have now switched over to expected deliveries in Q2:

View attachment 501222​

Translation: "Expected delivery date: Second quarter of 20202".

GF3 officially fully booked for Q1.

Imported AWD and P is showing the same 2020 Q2 delivery date.
OMG shipping overseas for Q1 has barely started yet.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Imported AWD and P is showing the same 2020 Q2 delivery date.
OMG shipping overseas for Q1 has barely started yet.

Did we already exceeded Jonas’ 2020 estimates for China deliveries?

 

[Fact Checking]

In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.64 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.*

*Note: Since we released our last quarterly safety report, NHTSA has released new data, which we’ve referenced in this quarter’s report.

So the relevant comparison are year over year changes, due to seasonality (there are more crashes in the winter), but there's also two other shifts in the Tesla fleet:

• Younger owners due to lower price Model 3 availability improving affordability,
• geographical expansion due to lots of European Model 3 deliveries.

These two factors make it hard to compare these figures, even year over year.

 

[nativewolf]

Ionity is moving to kwh-based pricing. Only 0,79€/kWh.
IONITY - NEWS & MEDIA

I know there is a full thread on this but to me the impacts on the EU market are tremendous. Superchargers are more important in the EU (my understanding, could be wrong) and for less efficient cars (Porsche Toycan) that have almost half the range for a given battery the cost to fill will be almost 4x as high so the total cost to drive x miles in a Toycan will be nearly 8x as high as a Tesla. 8X the costs? Am I right?

 

[The Accountant]

2019 Tesla China Registrations:

Source: China Automotive Information Net

 

[jerry33]

Uhh... enough Powerwalls to charge your cars? So, SIX PowerWalls (13.5 kWh each) for a Model 3 (~75 kWh), for instance? That seems excessive. I think if the PowerWalls are acting as the backup power source, there needs to be a different plan for charging cars.

Well, now you know why I haven't purchased any Powerwalls yet.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Nice, the little manipulators are doing their game again.
While I look towards east, and I prepare to recharge my entry.

Live long and TSLA.

 

[Fact Checking]

2019 Tesla China Registrations:
View attachment 501226
Source: China Automotive Information Net

So 13k sales in China in Q4, after 7.9k in Q3, +64% QoQ growth and should bode well for GF3 demand.

 

[Dare]

Indeed.

Buffett avoids agency risk by dominantly buying entire companies, or taking out huge stakes in the companies that are too large for them to buy - so that investors can only take part in the gains by buying BRK.A or BRK.B:

• either the shares are not public at all,
• or Buffett's stake is so large that:
  • the investor would risk a big drop in the price if Buffett reduces his stake, which he'll do in secret,
  • the investor would also miss out on the initial increase in the share price when Berkshire Hathaway invests in a company.

Buffett also primarily buys discounted cash flow from undervalued rent seeking companies under temporary distress, not innovators like ARK. I think Cathie, Tasha and the other ARK analysts would bore themselves to death if all they did was to search out and patiently acquire discounted monopolies.

Btw., I half expected Buffett to buy a big chunk of TSLA when it dropped below $200 - it's the obvious next big quasi-monopoly and he owns other EV stakes, but he didn't.

I haven’t seen much commentary from Buffett regarding TSLA. Other than the “the car business is difficult”. Does anyone know his official position?

 

[Lycanthrope]

Ok, here comes the Market Manipulators, trying to avoid paying out all those options sitting at $500 (mods - we really need a ROFLOL emoji in this forum for the crap we have to report all the time...)

 

[9837264723849]

I did a quick search for Model 3 vs BMW 3 Series interest in Google Trends. It seems that demand for Model 3 will end up being 2x demand for the 3 Series in the medium term. Some events might increase/decrease this at first and we should have some local variations (cf. Tesla brand in the US vs Germany, strong launch in Norway, end of subsidies in the Netherlands, etc) and the ratio could grow over time but that doubling seems quite clear after comparing these historical trends between countries.

 

[jerry33]

"There is strong conviction on both sides. More than strong. There's cultish convictions on both sides," Dusaniwsky says. "It's almost like a college football game ... people are just crazy fans and it doesn't matter what the team does.

Yeah, except once side believes in innovation and a better future, the others believe in whatever conspiracy they can conjure on any given day.

Seriously, these claims of fraud are just ridiculous, even if there were some accounting tricks in the books (name me a company that doesn't do that), they don't amount to fraud - the fact that Tesla will likely sell over half a million cars this year is the proof.

And Autopilot being "near homicidal" - what universe do these people live in? Sure it's dangerous if you tape an orange to the wheel and climb in the back seat, but try doing that with another car without Autopilot (put a brick on the gas pedal) and report back to me on how it went, if you can...

Then we have the while "surviving on subsidy" nonsense, which completely fails to address the fact that fossil fuels receive much higher subsidies than EV's and renewables.

Any normal, rational human being would understand this.

The problem here is that without any other input (such as actually investigating for themselves) people tend to believe whichever of their fellow brays the loudest. (I'm sure you can think of examples without me citing them.)

 

[HG Wells]

Any new guesses as to ER date ?
Feb 4 ?

 

[Huskyf]

Strange pre-market -2.12% any bad new or just shorts ?

 

[LJS22]

Strange pre-market -2.12% any bad new or just shorts ?

Mainly manipulation but I’m sure they’ll use this
Carl Quintanilla on Twitter
investigation into unintended acceleration

 

[KarenRei]

Shorts doing their part to convince people not to buy Tesla vehicles:

Tracie Wagman on Twitter

This is not new. They do this literally every day, sometimes with dozens of people per day - people considering buying Teslas and people who've had any sort of issue; they search Twitter, anyone who tags Elon or Tesla. It's horrible, and I wish more bulls/fans would allocate time to counter them, because they get away with scaring a huge number of people off - people who will then scare off their friends and families with the "stories that they heard".

Look at @ghost_scot's page - he's the ringleader (view in incognito mode - right click on the link):

Scot Work (@ghost_scot) | Twitter

One can check out their followers retweets to see who they're supposed to go after, or search for any of their hashtags:

Scot Work on Twitter

They organize via private chat. Recommend countering their targets with graphics from the Bloomberg survey, as well as revealing to them who TSLAQ is and what they're doing. Need to check in at least once a day.

Twitter banned him once, but he just re-registered with a new account, and despite Twitter affirming complaints against him for violating their platform manipulation policy, they never do anything about him.

 

[Joe F]

Here we go again.

NHTSA petition to formally seek defects causing (claiming) sudden unintended acceleration. Will update if I can find the Reuters hit piece.

 

[Christine600]

Tesla Marketing very active today - letting others market Teslas that is.

On the EV forum in Norway people are discussing the Ionity charging prices. And people are saying they considered various EVs but now comparing SuC and Ionity they say their next car will probably be a Tesla. And they say that perhaps the Tesla market valuation isn't as crazy as previously thought.
Ionity slutter med fastpris

Then you have the Cybertruck. You can buy a replica already if you are eager enough:
Russian-Built Fake Tesla Cybertruck Looks Shockingly Good
This Is The First Tesla Cybertruck You Can Actually Buy

 

[uselesslogin]

Any new guesses as to ER date ?
Feb 4 ?

Did I miss something about a delay? I figured we are still on schedule to get the announcement today that it will be on the 29th. Last year the 30th was announced on the 18th.

 

[Joe F]

Here we go again.

NHTSA petition to formally seek defects causing (claiming) sudden unintended acceleration. Will update if I can find the Reuters hit piece.

Link to piece here.