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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Me watching deferred tax asset impact updates.
<3 the bean counters, much respect
The Accountant
Active Member
You may be correct but I took 21% for Federal plus 8% for California state taxes. Not sure what the loss carryforwards rules are for CA.
Whether the right rate is 21% or 29%, either way there appears to be enough pre-tax income over the next 2-3 years to realize the benefit.
I agree with you that the auditors may want to take a more cautious stance....I'm sure there is much dialogue going on at this moment with PwC on this topic since so much judgment is involved.
However, to not recognize this benefit, the conclusion would have to be that it is "more likely than not" that Tesla will have losses in 2020 and 2021. That's a difficult stance to take.
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The Tesloop, and Carmiq owner claimed in an Autoline interview that the cars are indestructible in the inside as well. He has cars with several hundred thousand miles used in rideshare and rental.
Of course, Musk's goal is to have indestructible cars that can work like that, unlike legacy makers that prefer disposable cars.
I feel that a Tesla is very expensive when parked compared to regular cars, but it is much cheaper to run, so it should run all the time.
(That represents the minority view in our family.
Moreover, the family dog has also mixed feelings about the Tesla. She was free to roam in the old car, and not she is restricted to a blanket.)
The Accountant
Active Member
Of course just a rumor but I'm wondering if true, when would MY reservation holders be contacted about delivery.
Assume the first cars off the line go to showrooms, employees and then reservation holders.
Is it fair to say that if reservation holders have not been contacted, it means we are months away from deliveries?
Could any Model 3 original reservation holders shed light on this? Once the first MY reservation holder is contacted, what is the delivery timeline? 2 weeks...1 month?
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
T
Tell that to Elon Musk.
SunCatcher
Member
It blew up AF, and as planned.Touchdown. All looks good. Whew
And hopefully, we'll be saying the same thing about the SP in a few weeks!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
You believe Tesla Energy is a slightly smaller opportunity than automotive?
I see only three possible conclusions we can draw from that. Either:
1) you think you have better "numbers" or market data than Musk himself, or;
2) you think you are more visionary than Musk himself (can more accurately draw valid conclusions from the data), or;
3) or you think Musk a lying hypester/fraudster.
Did I miss anything?
While no visionary is immune from making mistakes, I do think it demonstrates an incredible amount of hubris to claim #1 or #2. And lying hypesters/fraudsters are not generally known for announcing fantastical sounding goals, like landing rockets on drone ships bobbing in the ocean and deploying the largest satellite constellation in human history, and then doing it.
OT way OTIt blew up AF, and as planned.
And hopefully, we'll be saying the same thing about the SP in a few weeks!
@SunCatcher
Many of us watched Challenger explode in real-time.
It was utter desolation.
Crew can now survive RUD’s
This is the imagined future instead
mars_or_bust
Member
A lot of high brow analysis about what caused the stock to rapidly rise and sputter a bit in the end these past few weeks.
But I think you complicate it way too much. It seems really simple: Musk does a live strip tease funky dance - stock jumps up; musk tweets "I put the art in fart" - stock jumps up; Musk does neither - stock stops rising.
But I think you complicate it way too much. It seems really simple: Musk does a live strip tease funky dance - stock jumps up; musk tweets "I put the art in fart" - stock jumps up; Musk does neither - stock stops rising.
It's still remarkable, to me, that we're only a little over 2 weeks into 2020 and TSLA is $500+.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Wow, there's actually quite a bit of information that leaked there, and we can cross-check it with the other Model Y leaks:
Moez on Twitter
Moez: "Just talked to Tesla employee in Fremont. He confirmed it he first deliveries are happening in 2 weeks."
Q: "Are you sure? If true, that’d be great."
Moez: "Yes he said that there was internal launch event last week and they are working extra hard to make it happen in 2 weeks"
Q: "Initial batch delivered to employees just like Model 3s?"
Moez: "I didn’t ask that specifically. He said everyone is really pumped after the “launch” event."
Moez: "Just talked to Tesla employee in Fremont. He confirmed it he first deliveries are happening in 2 weeks."
Q: "Are you sure? If true, that’d be great."
Moez: "Yes he said that there was internal launch event last week and they are working extra hard to make it happen in 2 weeks"
Q: "Initial batch delivered to employees just like Model 3s?"
Moez: "I didn’t ask that specifically. He said everyone is really pumped after the “launch” event."
Remember that earlier leak and deleted tweets by EVBite? Those tweets talked about a Model Y meeting where Tesla employees weren't allowed to bring phones to. That might have been the "launch event".
What's in two weeks? The Q4 earnings report ...
Neither EVBite nor Moez gave me the impression of rumor machines: they are both Californians who have friends at Tesla.
I really think this is legit, now we've heard about the imminent launch of the Model Y from multiple sources.
The timing is right as well: Q1 is the seasonally weakest quarter, so it's the one that can best tolerate distraction and resource reallocation at Fremont, and which would benefit most from the first Model Y deliveries.
They'd obviously keep it a deep secret in Q3 and Q4 and sandbag the Model Y schedule, to not Osbourne sales.
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This is of course just anecdotal but when I
Also wanted to add an anecdote on Tesla Energy...just the other day I logged into Facebook for the first time in weeks. What caught my eye weren’t the posts and pictures from friends but the 4 ads from four different local solar who were all prominently featuring Tesla Powerwalls! Sure those ads were likely targeted to me by Facebooks algorithms...but still just interesting to me!
I'm automatically highly skeptical of any energy-related forecast that shows only a shallow change over multi-decadal timecales. It reminds me of the terrible IEA wind and solar forecasts:
The world is expected to need nearly $50T in new energy investment by 2035. The notion that storage isn't going to be a major part of this is frankly nonsense.
The biggest problem is that most forecasters have repeatedly failed to understand how fast storage will drop in price - to the point that they even get it wrong in realtime. The notion that Tesla could do the Hornsdale battery for $387/kWh installed was laughed at by many supposed experts. Yet they did so, and without blowing their margins. Yet this is still very early in terms of large-scale storage products for Tesla. Tesla is at ~$100/kWh at the cell level, and 5 years from now I wouldn't be surprised to see them pushing ~$50/kWh cell cost (assuming mining tech cooperates in terms of supply pricing). Certainly well under $100/kWh at the very least. And meanwhile, manufacturing improvements will continue to push the total hardware cost down closer to the cell cost . This will radically alter the economic picture for mass storage projects.
Indeed, even the demand for mass storage is thrown off by the continual failure to predict how quickly wind and solar production would grow. They're now getting to the point where the cost of building new wind and solar projects is lower than the cost of just keeping existing coal plants running.
Storage, even with major price drops, won't entirely eliminate the need for backup power. But there's no shortage of plants that will be driven out of the baseload market that can transition to a peaking / load-following / backup role... so long as they're given sufficient time to ramp. And in terms of rapid-response peaking, nothing competes with battery storage - even today.
Additionally, once you start getting grid-scale storage costs low enough, you're no longer just looking at just a market for rapid-response peaking (and voltage/frequency maintenance on remote lines); you're now starting to make overnight battery storage practical in increasingly large markets.
Also wanted to add an anecdote on Tesla Energy...just the other day I logged into Facebook for the first time in weeks. What caught my eye weren’t the posts and pictures from friends but the 4 ads from four different local solar who were all prominently featuring Tesla Powerwalls! Sure those ads were likely targeted to me by Facebooks algorithms...but still just interesting to me!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
And that is why I never get out of bed and accomplish anything. Likewise, it would be crazy to invest real money in the stock market. Because the best way to avoid a loss is to not invest.
/sThe song "Free Will" by Rush contemplates doing nothing: "If you choose to not decide, you still have made a choice"
Fear of failure will prevent you from achieving anything worthwhile. The Tesla we have today was created by people who did not let the fear of failure incapacitate them.
If it wasn't possible you wouldn't be asked to do it.I like it. Is it even possible to change my name? I would think that would cause a lot of confusion if people were changing their names all the time. I guess I’m so bad they’ll make an exception. I’m actually a really nice guy. Not sure why they are picking on me. Why’s everyone always picking on me. It can’t be me can it?
Y launch...
I think it could be argued that high margin 3 orders declining and that Y being used to maintain margins. It would be really nice to see 3 sales stay consistent or improve in coming quarters.
Of course can keep rolling out new high margin vehicles...
I’m hoping battery production increasing volume
I think it could be argued that high margin 3 orders declining and that Y being used to maintain margins. It would be really nice to see 3 sales stay consistent or improve in coming quarters.
Of course can keep rolling out new high margin vehicles...
I’m hoping battery production increasing volume
I'll just point out the @Electroman has been a member for 8 years and has many more posts than you.
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