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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

TheTalkingMule

Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Oct 20, 2012
10,178
52,046
Philadelphia, PA
While we are enjoying the ride I'll share my Tesla (and TSLA) vision/fantasy. Laugh all you want.

10 year LONG horizon
In 10 years Tesla will produce 10 TWh annually of batteries at $25 - $50/kWh gross profit
= $250 - $500 Billion annual gross profit
Very realistic and probably low considering they'll likely own most services at the POS as well. I just created Time To Sell The Automotive Unit under essentially this rationale. Energy has always been the big deal, not cars or robotaxis.
 
BREAKING
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capster

Active Member
Supporting Member
Aug 11, 2018
1,283
10,876
An island planet
Is anyone else just breaking out in bouts of spontaneous laughter, or is it just me? Maybe I skipped the euphoria stage and went straight to insanity? :D
Man, I’m with you! For us bulls, every evening before the market is open is like Christmas Eve and every business morning is like Christmas morning! :D

Thank you Elon! Thank you everyone at Tesla! Thank you Tesla customers! And thank you to all the *good* folks here in this forum each and every one! :)
 
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waterloo42

Member
Supporting Member
Mar 23, 2017
60
260
Waterloo

LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Supporting Member
Mar 6, 2019
2,055
10,345
Oahu, Hawaii
Do we think the upcoming Q4 earnings and rumored imminent Model Y release is already being factored into the stock price?

I think the combined rumor of Y being released early *and Trumps' comments are helping the stock move, certainly. I don't think Q4 is being properly added, as it was slowly creeping up prior to ER as it was for Q3.

*edited because forgot to add the second part.
 

SOULPEDL

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
5,126
23,497
Arizona
Not steel, ice. In the form of hail. $500M in damages from a single 30 min storm is not uncommon, mostly in tornado alley adjacent areas. Some auto insurers won't even provide hail insurance anymore in affected areas. Tesla Ins. would be king there too.

Ah yes, and the cyber windows are slanted in to maintain vehicle strength, so the right hail could be a direct hit on CyberTruck.

So why doesn't the Model Y have it too, or do we just not know yet? (Windshields get hammered from rocks out in Az.)
 
That's what's so great about this new reality where raising funds costs nothing and the brand is standing alone at the top. They can produce and sell literally ANYTHING they want, even a ridiculous looking truck.

I think you're missing the point here. The Cybertruck won't sell simply because it's a Tesla, it will sell because it'll be a great truck. Yes, it'll be a great truck because Tesla will ensure it is, but my point is that if Tesla makes junk, it won't sell. Existing trucks are junk. I know, I have a 2010 F-150. It only has 40K miles on it but it's junk compared to a Cybertruck.

Personally I think the optimal move from here is to sell pack/drivetrains to a Ford competitor starting in 2023ish to accelerate the truck transition. Obviously I want absurd profit margins on these skateboards. Toyota Tacoma EV perhaps? I'd buy 9 of those.

The price on such a beast wouldn't be favorable, especially compared to a Cybertruck. Tesla can outcompete because they are vertically integrated. If Toyota has to buy the skateboard from Tesla, they are purchasing the most valuable part of the truck. Toyota would be reduced to building the frame and body. And the Cybertruck has a better and cheaper frame/body. The Tacoma EV with a Tesla skateboard can't compete. There is no point in even making such a monster.

People such as yourself, who find the looks of the Cybertruck unappealing and want something more "traditional" looking will hold out for ICE trucks. The rest of the truck market will adapt. And it won't matter to Tesla because as they ramp production numbers, people will come around faster than they can make enough to fulfill the entire market. Traditional trucks are already starting to look frumpy. In 10 years only alcoholics who can't hold a decent job and old curmudgeons will want to be caught driving an old flexy, fragile piece of crap.
 

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