Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

*picks up mouse and speaks into it* hello, computer.

"Computer?"
"Keyboard... how quaint."

 

[mekberg]

This was probably covered a hundred pages ago, but I've been MIA.

What is the consensus on S&P500 inclusion in 2020?

 

[snellenr]

Do you have any advice for the new TSLA millionaires?

Most important advice:

You aren’t truly a Tesla millionaire until you actually sell the stock (or whatever instrument you used) and take your profits.

(Rode my Netscape investment all the way from IPO @~$30/share through its peak @~$190/share - and all the way to the smoking hole in the ground at the end).

 

[capster]

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Can someone please let me know what portal I stepped into where the media loves Musk, even Dana Hull calls TSLAQ "obsessives", the markets are obsessed with the stock and immune to FUD, and Trump is Musk's biggest fan and thinks climate change isn't a hoax?

Umm, you stepped through the right portal, I guess?

Don’t step back!

 

[Mkorpal]

This was probably covered a hundred pages ago, but I've been MIA.

What is the consensus on S&P500 inclusion in 2020?

A near guarantee unless some internal politics somehow derails it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I had to deal with "sudden wealth syndrome" early in my life with MSFT, SBUX and (especially) QCOM. Although it was much more dramatic than anything I see here (short of those who put oversized bets on highly leveraged TSLA options last year).

My biggest advice, don't do much differently, especially at first. Sure, if you are living in a dump and your roof leaks and you're driving a beater, fix those things. But don't go overboard. The key is to enjoy life. And we have plenty of tales of people who won the lottery, $10 million and above, the amount to the upside of that doesn't matter, they still blew through it very fast while simultaneously having a huge falling out with family and friends and sometimes ending up with alcohol or drug problems. So, if you only have $2-$4 million it can happen just as fast. Remember, you still have to pay cap gain taxes on any sales so plan for that if you want to sell some to rebalance or upgrade things in your life.

Being a "millionaire" ain't what it used to be. The fact of the matter is, $10 million is the new $millionaire.

Also, don't tell people. The desire to have someone to relate to about all this is strong but it's almost always a mistake to let people know how much your financial position has changed. And it really shouldn't matter so you shouldn't tell them.

It's definitely helpful for people here to know or have estimated certain things for themselves such as at what age do they want to retire or have financial freedom and what lifestyle(and the yearly spending that goes with it) they want and what debts they think they're going to still have at that retirement/financial freedom date.

As for me, as long as Tesla hits at least $1,500 in the next 4-5 years, I'll have enough to roll into multiple investments that I just need to generate a 5% dividend along with my rental income to provide enough annual income for me to retire and live the lifestyle I want and cover the debts I expect to still have in 4-5 years. Anything above $1,500 a share just means my yearly lifestyle will be that much nicer

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Was gone for like 6 months. What'd I miss?

Shorts were right. Tesla's bankwupt. Sell everything and move to Iceland. Oh wait, call Karen first and let her know you're coming.

Dan

 

[humbaba]

This was probably covered a hundred pages ago, but I've been MIA.

What is the consensus on S&P500 inclusion in 2020?

Not for 4Q2019 -- can't make full year GAAP profitable. If 1Q2020 is profitable then it would be eligible following that. If not then, after 2Q2020

 

[Mkorpal]

I had to deal with "sudden wealth syndrome" early in my life with MSFT, SBUX and (especially) QCOM. Although it was much more dramatic than anything I see here (short of those who put oversized bets on highly leveraged TSLA options last year).

My biggest advice, don't do much differently, especially at first. Sure, if you are living in a dump and your roof leaks and you're driving a beater, fix those things. But don't go overboard. The key is to enjoy life. And we have plenty of tales of people who won the lottery, $10 million and above, the amount to the upside of that doesn't matter, they still blew through it very fast while simultaneously having a huge falling out with family and friends and sometimes ending up with alcohol or drug problems. So, if you only have $2-$4 million it can happen just as fast. Remember, you still have to pay cap gain taxes on any sales so plan for that if you want to sell some to rebalance or upgrade things in your life.

Being a "millionaire" ain't what it used to be. The fact of the matter is, $10 million is the new $millionaire.

Also, don't tell people. The desire to have someone to relate to about all this is strong but it's almost always a mistake to let people know how much your financial position has changed. And it really shouldn't matter so you shouldn't tell them.

That last point seems difficult. Even if you do resist telling, eventually people are going to figure it out.

 

[AquaMan]

Rode my Netscape investment all the way from IPO @~$30/share through its peak @~$190/share all the way to the smoking hole in the ground at the end

Okay, but I've driven the cars. Did you not try using the browser? Ugh.

Don't feel bad, I shorted TSLA before the last earnings. (Long puts actually, hoping to ride a brief dip.) I'm long again, and got my money back today. Today I'm basically starting over with the amount of my original account deposits.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This video, from a usually trusted source appears to show stamping in GF3:

Jay in Shanghai on Twitter

PS. Not being an expert, it looks like a money printing machine to me.

"Kit car! Kit car!" /s

This is again based on the single, unconfirmed reddit post:
Model Y deliveries confirmed for next month! : TeslaLounge

PS. It appears that the Canadian media outlet spoke to other Model Y order holders from the area. These had gotten calls from the same Tesla store but only to confirm the order, not giving any indication of when delivery may happen. So still based on just a report of a single phone call.

Yes, caution is needed until we get more evidence.

 

[ammulder]

With regard to Toyota, my thoughts:
[...]
While conservatism has benefitted them in the past, it could very well be their downfall in the future. First shown by their flawed decision to pursue hydrogen fuel cells and their inability to move on the EV front, their apparent lack of desire to put their neck out on the line for new technology will soon become a weight around their neck.

I'm not sure the hydrogen thing is being driven so much by Toyota thinking it's a better power source for a car, as by Japan thinking it's a better power source for the country. They seem to want to move to importing hydrogen in a big way. So Toyota may just be along for the ride to try to match their cars to the national energy plan. Which still shows a remarkable lack of understanding of the global car market, but might serve them well enough locally.

People such as yourself, who find the looks of the Cybertruck unappealing and want something more "traditional" looking will hold out for ICE trucks.

Well, in fairness, there is (supposed to be) the all-electric F150. And GM's "coming" electric pickup. And Rivian/Bollinger/etc. If you don't like the look of the Cybertruck, that doesn't automatically mean you're in the ICE market. (Though, if you're waiting on those alternatives expecting low cost and high range, you're more optimistic than me...)

 

[madodel]

Man, I’m with you! For us bulls, every evening before the market is open is like Christmas Eve and every business morning is like Christmas morning!

Thank you Elon! Thank you everyone at Tesla! Thank you Tesla customers! And thank you to all the *good* folks here in this forum each and every one!

Does anyone here still work or do anything useful (not counting watching the TSLA ticker and reading/posting in TMC)?

Oh look TSLA is $590 again.

 

[Krugerrand]

Schedule some accountants and lawyers to interview. 3 each and pick one of each. You'll be needing them. Not talking about the $40 walmart type.

For the newly minted, it’s a million before taxes. Afterwards, not so much. Nobody is getting out of paying their fair share of taxes, so suck it up, pay them and move on. The remainder, in the scheme of things, isn’t all that much in modern times. If you can balance a checkbook, you can manage easily without third parties.

It’s not like anyone won Powerball - yet.

If you’re someone who has never been able to manage money, then sure find someone to help you.

 

[humbaba]

That last point seems difficult. Even if you do resist telling, eventually people are going to figure it out.

If you keep the same lifestyle and you don't tell, how would they know?

Sure, eventually people will know you are better off, but you don't have to help them know just how much. I have a good friend who has done much better financially than I have. He doesn't talk about it and I don't ask. Trust me, it helps to not talk about it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

That last point seems difficult. Even if you do resist telling, eventually people are going to figure it out.

Usually it doesn't take long after telling people about your tesla position size and/or net worth before the first "request" or "can you consider this" comes in. People then learn pretty quickly to keep their mouth shut lol.

I'm super selective over who I've told my net worth, assets, or position in Tesla...….none of which are my family lol

 

[[email protected]]

I just randomly caught this bad boy trade. $1.50 above all the rest of them. Anybody has any insights as to what this trade means?

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There are rumors on twitter about an Hedge Fond taken out by shorting TSLA. I‘m a noob. So not sure if that a) true and b) related to your data.

 

[Big Earl]

I FOMO-bought 3 more shares this morning. Average price is still under $300/share.

 

[neezer]

For anyone that's got a couple hours to watch a round table interview with Elon (and partially also with his brother):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NxmO_QuD4Do

 

[Prunesquallor]

almost at 6 figure here and pissed that I didn't double down.

Pissed you didn't double down? I’m pissed I didn’t liquidate every other investment, mortgage the house and take out every loan I could get and throw it all in TSLA last summer. @Krugerrand wouldn't have been able to find an island I didn’t already own.