Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Fresh-squeezed short juice, for sure.


A few pages later....Grrr! Curse you, @SunCatcher!!!

Deja vu?

A greater moderator once said to his flock - paraphrased; ‘Before posting be sure to read all the posts and then duplicate postings will be greatly decreased.’

 

[Cherry Wine]

Damn damn damn.

I'm panicking - my 700-750-800 calls gamble of $2k is showing +$4k. If I take it out now it's a free acceleration boost for my AWD 3.

But what if it becomes +$20k?

My CT gamble of loading the margin with the calls is showing I have a free 3-motor CT 2 years early.

I'm pretty calm about these calls though. Will let them run and earn me a free solar roof and maybe heat pump, electric water heater, electric stove?

This is in addition to shares owned with my own money, which I'm not selling.

You're the dog who caught the car.

Anyone is authorized to temporarily rationalize their position. If mine were larger I'd be looking to trim somewhat soon as a macro bloodbath is likely in the mail. HOWEVER.......I think logic states we need to wait for confirmation that short interest is below $10B before any selling.

No mercy.

Personally, I will continue to build a small hedge into Q4 ER, but I really want to hear what they have to say before I do any trimming. Elon has already stated via Twitter that he plans to disclose Tesla's plans for the next several years on the call. Guidance could be very positive, which will be just as important, if not more, than Q4 financials.

I mean, what if he talks about shipping Model Y Q1? What if he talks about Q1 production being already sold out?!?! What if he talks about new gigafactories, new production improvements, new efficiencies, hints at battery developments, FSD progress? Full year 2020 profitability? FCA compliance pool payments? Cybertruck reservations?

There is so much potential positive guidance out there that shorts may be screaming for the exits come January 30th. The upside is so big that I don't want to cap it with anything but long puts.

 

[Unpilot]

Schedule some accountants and lawyers to interview. 3 each and pick one of each. You'll be needing them. Not talking about the $40 walmart type.

Nope....I'm 64..gunna retire...spend a little and leave a chunk to the kids...life is good if you don't try and hold every single penny.

Enjoy life...smile ...and drink beer

Is advice

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes they're junk, but the CT is nowhere near a mainstream design. Nor is it what I think the "next thing" will look like. It's gonna sell on the engineering alone, in spite of the nuts design that maybe 2% of the market wants.

You're way too focused on marketshare and domination. Elon's plan isn't to own every segment, he wants to accomplish a mission. Best move from here is to get others(or force others) to take this whole thing to scale. That can include non-traditional Elon moves like selling a very basic skateboard(with zero FSD hardware) to Toyota so they can put out half a million EV trucks far faster than Tesla could alone.

We're scaling(not Tesla, the entire EV market). Time to delegate!

You’re making a lot of assumptions here. This working any faster than Tesla making their own cars relies on:

1. Producing the skateboard being the only bottleneck
2. Tesla being able to make far more batteries than they can make cars(or energy storage) to use those batteries.
3. Tesla being able to produce skateboards at a much greater rate than they can make cars
4. Other companies being capable of integrating such skateboards in every factory they have
5. Other companies being capable of producing EV’s that are more desirable than their gas equivalents
6. Other companies being willing to produce EV’s that are more desirable than their gas equivalents

Thus far, I’ve seen little to no evidence of any of those being true.

 

[StealthP3D]

Well, in fairness, there is (supposed to be) the all-electric F150. And GM's "coming" electric pickup. And Rivian/Bollinger/etc. If you don't like the look of the Cybertruck, that doesn't automatically mean you're in the ICE market. (Though, if you're waiting on those alternatives expecting low cost and high range, you're more optimistic than me...)

In fairness, I quit drinking the electric kool-aid from ICE manufacturer's a couple of years ago. I would love to see an electric F150 succeed but I'm not willing to assume it will be on time or worth buying. I also have serious doubts about the all EV truck start-ups but keeping an open mind. But here's what rules: I'll believe it when I can buy it. I even have some doubts about the Cybertruck timeline, price, etc. but at least Tesla has a good track record here. The Model X delay and the slow Model 3 ramp were blown completely out of proportion by the media (pretty minor stuff, really) and Tesla learned from those mistakes so I find them a lot more credible. And the final products were pure magic!

 

[Singer3000]

Surprised no comment yet on this:

If the United States can't make a deal with the European Union, a 25% tariff will have to be imposed on the European car imports, US President Donald Trump told Fox Business News in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday.

 

[Cherry Wine]

From a different poster than the OP on the Model Y rumor reddit thread:

Model Y deliveries confirmed for next month! : TeslaLounge

Update: called contact back, asked him a few questions. He said lots of rumours are flying around right now but they have no information about Model Y deliveries at this point. He was reaching out to see if I had any questions and to offer Model S/X test drive if interested or talk about Model 3 (mostly a sales lead call in that respect).

From this, I don't see any confirmation of Model Y deliveries next month but will be tuning in to the earnings call next week.

 

[woodisgood]

From a different poster than the OP on the Model Y rumor reddit thread:

Model Y deliveries confirmed for next month! : TeslaLounge

Yeah it's worth taking those Y rumors with a grain of salt for now. Earnings call is soon enough.

 

[reardencode]

From a different poster than the OP on the Model Y rumor reddit thread:

Model Y deliveries confirmed for next month! : TeslaLounge

Sounds like management put the lid back on that one... although I do wonder if the "leak" was intentional to raise the hype level going into earnings :-D

 

[Robertj]

This increase in price on higher than normal volume bodes well for future price gains

 

[jbcarioca]

Why do you assume his base would be anti Tesla? Plenty of conservatives own Teslas, and TSLA. Good post.

Conservative and Base are entirely different concepts. Very few conservatives are in his base.

The problem for TSLA is that there is zero possibility that the present US government will actually evaluate either Tesla or SpaceX for what they are. That is a problem because emotional outbursts could change support to opposition at any time for whimsical reasons.

As investors we should do everything we can to evaluate our decisions apolitically, other than consider how politically resilient our investment might be.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, as I've mentioned here in the past, my fair value estimate for Tesla Auto alone is $600 currently. To be clear, I do not think Tesla Energy or Tesla Network are worthless, of course. I do not ignore them either. I simply see them both as dramatically more challenging to estimate revenues and earnings 5-6 years out with any considerable confidence as compared to Tesla Auto (Tesla Network being the more challenging of those two).

My $600 for Tesla Auto is based on a $1200 +/-$300 2026 fair value estimate.

My overall 2026 forecast for Tesla is $1200-2000, knowing that might be VERY conservative.

This means a couple of things...

1) I think it might be really helpful to start dedicated threads for Tesla Network 2025/30 (revenue, earnings, fair value), Tesla Energy 2025/30 (r, e, fv), and Tesla Auto 2025/30 (r, e, fv) so we can turn the considerable collective wisdom here towards trying to map out these developing pictures by comparing notes on forecasted assumptions, reasoning for those assumptions, and the earnings, etc., that those assumptions spit out.

2) I sold my first core shares today at $592.xx, 1% of my holdings. I'll let go of up to 6-7% in total if this move makes it to $630, and do this again from about $670-730 for another 7% or so. fwiw, If I was real young, and didn't almost 'certainly' already have as much money as I'm ever going to spend, I might not of let go of those shares. ie, circumstances vary, I'm not saying anybody should sell as much (or as little, if the shoe fits) as I did. What I would recommend is that you make buy/sell/hold decisions in relation to what you think the fair value of Tesla is based upon a forecast of future earnings several years out from now.

I never would have had anywhere near the TSLA gains I have without TMC, and the people here. All the best, regardless of varying perspectives!

Steve

 

[Sparky4life]

I just randomly caught this bad boy trade. $1.50 above all the rest of them. Anybody has any insights as to what this trade means?

View attachment 503134

It means someone has a lot more money than I do.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Order book:

 

[Bobfitz1]

No, Tesla will build Cybertruck in Nevada. And why would they start planning for 50K/yr when they have hundreds of thousands of reservations already?

I agree that demand for Cybertruck is not in doubt. However, if the CapEx to mass produce CTs is much less than M3 and MY, why build a single plant in one part of the country (or world) rather than integrating 50K + into existing and planned GFs ?

 

[Lycanthrope]

Worse == greater loss for MMs. Profit depends greatly on purchase price of Call. If these $600s were bought on the cheap, they be like 20x at sales times. Maybe @Lycanthrope can give a concrete example, I think he bought some 600s.

Cheers!

2 x Feb 7 2020 $650's, which I bought last week for $9.5 and are $25.50 up right now.

5 x Jan 15 2021 $650's from September for $1, currently $88.50

5 x Jan 15 2021's I sold a couple of weeks ago at $36, bad move, but still cash in the account and 3500% gain

Have toyed with offloading the options, on the basis that I expect some MM shenanigans tomorrow, but I'm also thinking there's going to be a lot of forced purchases too, so might hold onto them. For earnings I fear a buy the rumours, sell the news, so might get rid of them before then anyway, at least the Feb ones.

 

[UrsS]

This is not political, it has to do with reality.
A word of caution: By now we should have learned that whatever Trump says has absolutely no meaning. He can utter the exact opposite within an hour or less. He does not have any knowledge (of anything) and whatever he says and does is only for his personal agrandissement. So basing any investment on his utterances would be rather foolish.

 

[dw4ngg]

It took less than hour for each of the 550, 560, 570 and 580 ranges to be broken. I don't understand why 590 is taking so long. We back on Elon time or what?

 

[Mike Smith]

You're the dog who caught the car.



Personally, I will continue to build a small hedge into Q4 ER, but I really want to hear what they have to say before I do any trimming. Elon has already stated via Twitter that he plans to disclose Tesla's plans for the next several years on the call. Guidance could be very positive, which will be just as important, if not more, than Q4 financials.

I mean, what if he talks about shipping Model Y Q1? What if he talks about Q1 production being already sold out?!?! What if he talks about new gigafactories, new production improvements, new efficiencies, hints at battery developments, FSD progress? Full year 2020 profitability? FCA compliance pool payments? Cybertruck reservations?

There is so much potential positive guidance out there that shorts may be screaming for the exits come January 30th. The upside is so big that I don't want to cap it with anything but long puts.

Don't forget, he said he'll be talking about plans as far out as 2023/24 on the earnings call in this cryptic email response 3 weeks ago.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[woodisgood]

So another 7-8% tomorrow?