Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wipster]

ER is gonna be a blowout crazy success.
Also I told you guys the virus thing was a non issue. I'm always right

Guys (and Karen), I'm pumped as all get out for tomorrow afternoon, but let's not count the chickens before the announcement of their hatching...

Aw screw it, GO TSLA!!!

 

[lklundin]

No, it would still qualify if it reported $1M tomorrow and $256M for Q1. Or $128.5M both quarters. I don't understand why people are fixating on the $256M number.

For 2019Q2 Tesla posted a net GAAP result of -408M$, for Q3 one of 143M$.

So if Q4 + Q1 has a combined net result exceeding 143M$ - 408M$, e.g. 266M$ (in whole millions) - and Q1 has a positive result - then Tesla qualifies for S&P 500 inclusion. And since Q1 historically has been weaker than Q4, then the focus is on a Q4 that will be (close to) good enough for both quarters.

That's why there is such an interest. A somewhat smaller Q4 result would just require a slightly higher Q1 result, so has about equal likelihood.

 

[Open Interest]

Why is everyone thinking Tesla will report only 250m profit? They sold almost 20k more cars than Q3, more S/X and raised prices. Will be over $500m profit

Elon even tweeted that the shares are underappreciated.
Elon Musk on Twitter

Chairs of stonk?

 

[Artful Dodger]

ER is gonna be a blowout crazy success.
Also I told you guys the virus thing was a non issue. I'm always right

Yeah, wanna be careful with that...

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

Yeah, wanna be careful with that...

Cheers!

Nikola Tesla also died a virgin.
But I don't have that problem

 

[CorneliusXX]

Apple has normalized getting a new phone every year by taking out a zero interest loan. People upgrade their phones every September, or get one for Christmas.

Imagine if Tesla began a Tesla upgrade program where you pay them every month for the car, insurance, the whole package and when Tesla has an upgraded version of the car out you get a “free upgrade” they take your car currently and recycle the battery, use the body for parts on repairs, or flexes the old car into a robo fleet. Now all your customers are paying you a forever loan and they never own the car. I could see it working haha

Roadster would start at $3k
S&X would start at $1k
Cybertruck and Y start at $600
Model 3 starts at $500

There's about a million startups trialling this business model right now. It's a little trickier than phones because insurance varies by customer and depreciation of new vehicles is so steep in the first year that most people can't afford to wear it.

Robotaxi could solve both those problems though.

 

[LJS22]

There's about a million startups trialling this business model right now. It's a little trickier than phones because insurance varies by customer and depreciation of new vehicles is so steep in the first year that most people can't afford to wear it.

Robotaxi could solve both those problems though.

Seems like another business that Tesla will just happen to have all the pieces for haha

I could see it working in the future. If Tesla is having customers trade in cars like iPhones then they will be in a great place (as long as they remain brand loyal)

 

[KarenRei]

I've got a script that generates such a chart using Arrow-Debreu securities derived from the TSLA options chain. I'll re-run it for you based on Friday's options after work today; it involves inverting a couple thousand matrices so it can take a bit to calculate...

But you can see an example of one I posted on the trading forum back in July for options expiring in August 2019: trading

That's a graph of various strikes on a particular date, not the implied probability of given strikes over time.

Just had a quick briefing at my hospital about the coronavirus from our infectious disease specialist. Currently the mortality rate is less than influenza. It's not expected to cause too much of a concern. Media is panicking because it's a new strand of coronavirus vs the ones that have been infecting people around the world for years.

So in summery, less than a nothing burger.

I've gotten in some discussions here on the side of not overplaying coronavirus, for exactly this reason (that it just doesn't seem to be that virulent). But I'd hesitate to call it a "nothingburger". Any disease that has jumped to humans for the first time will undergo much more rapid evolution than one that's existed in humans for many years; this is the first time it's been exposed to "human selective factors", to natural selection on the basis of its ability to thrive within - and spread between - humans. New diseases should always be treated with respect for this reason, and this coronavirus (2019 nCoV) is genetically quite distinct from other ones that routinely cause our cold and flu symptoms.

So I agree that as it stands, the fear is hype. But it still deserves to be treated with respect for what it could possibly become.

Or not.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Chairs = Shares
Same type of cryptic message a day before Q3 earnings
"More carrot, less stick"
Elon Musk on Twitter

This along with the email a few weeks ago, pretty much urging employees to ignore stock price and not sell. Elon has this thing set up to squeeze

That’s what I love about this forum. A year ago, I didn’t even know what it meant to "hodl my stonk chairs".

 

[CorneliusXX]

Why is everyone thinking Tesla will report only 250m profit? They sold almost 20k more cars than Q3, more S/X and raised prices. Will be over $500m profit

Elon even tweeted that the shares are underappreciated.
Elon Musk on Twitter

Chairs is like the lemur hint. CHina REServations.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Pre-Market High: $573.99 (04:13:37 AM)

 

[FrankSG]

Had an interesting pre-earnings thought/realization just now, that I decided to dedicate a blog post to.

A bold TSLA Q4'19 earnings prediction: Tesla will announce plans to scale to annual production of 5-10M vehicles by 2025

 

[dakh]

I'm expecting the actual ER pdf to have some juicy bits on future plans, plus a discussion of that during the call. Exciting stuff if it happens, although it might be a bit incomplete, depending on if they wanna spill the beans on the battery situation now or wait until they're ready to talk about it in detail. FOMO tells me to get some weeklies

 

[elasalle]

Damn woke up thinking need to take some profits before ER. Now not sure what to do.

 

[KarenRei]

Chairs may actually just be Elon talking about chairs, because he's weird that way.

Remember when he talked about floors?

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[uselesslogin]

Maybe Robyn Denholm was under appreciated. She is after all literally the Chair.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Maybe Robyn Denholm was under appreciated. She is after all literally the Chair.

Yes, that is my best guess. Perhaps she will be appointed as COO? There was a rumor when she was first appointed that it was as a trial and that if successful she would take on a role similar to Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX.

 

[Joe F]

And here when I read the chairs tweet, I thought of Robyn Denholm...

Edit: Beat me to it I see. I need more than 3 hours sleep. Denholm it is then. Going back to sleep.

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, that is my best guess. Perhaps she will be appointed as COO? There was a rumor when she was first appointed that it was as a trial and that if successful she would take on a role similar to Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX.

If this were the case, do you think the market would like that?

I personally would (that arrangement has worked great at SpaceX, and it'd take some flak off both Musk and Tesla), but I wonder if it would be spun as "Musk stepping back from Tesla". Messaging would have to be carefully managed, I'd think. I can imagine that a lot of analysts would like it, though.

 

[imherkimer]

My first thought, hmm chairs (sounds sorta like shares) .... are under appreciated ...
But, nah, couldn’t be that, right? wouldn’t pass the minders.
Could be so many things, including none, or any, or all of the above.