Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

Yes. You may not care about 60 dollars a share but others do

I keep hearing about $$$ movements, $60 at sp 900 = $20 at sp 300 or $13.33 when sp was $200.

Shouldn't we be talking in %'s instead of $'s?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

GF Texas, hyper growth.
No cap raise needed.

 

[UncaNed]

I second this. I also lured into option trading after few days reading.
My first venture .. lost 10k and another 5k loss is in progress.
Luckily, today long gains got me enough to cover the loss.

Well, maybe me just dont know how to do it correctly but my option trading career wont go much further for sure.

I started in November. Totally opposite experience by order on magnitude... I'm prolly lucky, not smart.

 

[Runarbt]

bounched back up at frankfurt, was down 10%, now only 5% (800euro or 880 usd)

 

[mongo]

bounched back up at frankfurt, was down 10%, now only 5% (800euro or 880 usd)

Still low volume too, was 16k at dip, still under 18k (Yahoo delayed)

I keep hearing about $$$ movements, $60 at sp 900 = $20 at sp 300 or $13.33 when sp was $200.

Shouldn't we be talking in %'s instead of $'s?

Thoughts: Account value = shares x price. Up $10k is more meaningful to me than y%. Option values are $ based. Plus, down 5 up 5 only cancels out when using currency.

 

[lklundin]

Permit
View attachment 508084

F19-0024 - Installation of new backup power packs at North Paint Building. Equipment anchorage and installation of new concrete pad.

Thanks for posting this.

Given the increasing number of Tesla factories/facilities (alone in the USA we have Fremont, GF1, GF2, Lathrop), I think it could it be helpful to post the actual location along with these permits.

Thanks again.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

GF Texas, hyper growth.
No cap raise needed.

A lot of things seem to be aligning:

- Trump may not have been confused about this 'very big plant', but may have been referring to Giga Texas.
- Cybertruck needs a factory and where better to build it than in 'trucking heartland'. Semi could also be built there.
- Battery Day is coming up and those 2T of batteries are not going to be built in Nevada (lack of workforce, housing). Texas probably has plenty of those (any locals want to chime in about possibie locations?).
- Tesla already has a presence in Austin and is expanding.

The icing on the cake could be that the state needs to allow direct sales to get the Giga.

 

[lklundin]

bounched back up at frankfurt, was down 10%, now only 5% (800euro or 880 usd)

Yes, this dip was too short lived for me to be able to place a buy order for some free money.

 

[Fact Checking]

Thanks for posting this.

Given the increasing number of Tesla factories/facilities (alone in the USA we have Fremont, GF1, GF2, Lathrop), I think it could it be helpful to post the actual location along with these permits.

Thanks again.

This permit is from Fremont, and "North Paint" is the new paint shop Tesla is building for the Model Y expansion: they'll need it once South Paint's current maximum capacity of about ~9,000 cars/week is exhausted. South Paint is shared between all S/3/X/Y models - I presume they'll have similar versatility with North Paint as well.

I.e. the building of "North Paint" can overlap with the ramp-up of the Model Y, up to a certain point when they start ramping up to significant volumes.

 

[UncaNed]

So, I had a thought on the dip near the end. Last week when I was getting my powerwalls installed I overheard one of the workers mention that a trading day was coming up next week (this week) that allows them to sell their stock. They're only allowed to sell on certain days because they're considered "insiders." No idea what all the rules are around what time of day you can trade or if it could come anywhere near the volume to justify the dip...but I'd image the stock price near $1k would be a very nice and much deserved bonus for many employees.

Asked my Tesla service tech about stock. He was VERY appreciative of the stock arrangement with Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

My account is up more than 10X from where it was in June. My family went through extreme hardship 4 months ago, and I am now considering retiring this year or next. The first step is owning my house, so I sold 19% of my shares today at 959 to pay off my mortgage. I plan to keep 66% of my remaining shares another 5-10 years, so I have 33% of the remaining shares that I am looking to sell to pull off the retirement. My price point now is 1200 or higher. Of course, if the stock drops below 800, the retirement plans are off the table (but at least my house is paid). I think S&P 500 this year will guarantee at least 1200, but we will see. I hope I don't regret not selling more shares today because I was being greedy and wanted more money to retire with.....

So it was YOU that precipitated the sell-off to $860

 

[Fact Checking]

So, I had a thought on the dip near the end. Last week when I was getting my powerwalls installed I overheard one of the workers mention that a trading day was coming up next week (this week) that allows them to sell their stock. They're only allowed to sell on certain days because they're considered "insiders." No idea what all the rules are around what time of day you can trade or if it could come anywhere near the volume to justify the dip...but I'd image the stock price near $1k would be a very nice and much deserved bonus for many employees.

At many firms that use stock compensation, trading by all employees is usually restricted near financial events such as quarterly reports, but the trading window opens up afterwards, a couple of trading days later.

But trading windows emphatically do not open up in the middle of the trading day, or at the end of it - they open in the morning. Many employees just use the opening price or sell during the day - and they don't sell at once.

So no, it wasn't Tesla employees selling - but the SEC should be able to identify the responsible parties in any case, if investors file complaints:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable​

That link contains a description of what happened during yesterday's "$100 TSLA Flash Crash", and also during the bear raid earlier this morning through the European Xetra exchange, which manipulated the Nasdaq pre-market opening price.

In that post there's also a link to the SEC Investor Complaint form, which any TSLA shareholder or TSLA options contract holder can use to file a formal SEC complaint, regardless of which country they access those financial instruments from. (I.e. it's not for U.S. investors only.)

 

[ReflexFunds]

S&P500 inclusion:

Tesla now have to fork out for Elon's second milestone payment (market cap >$150Bn). This means that Q1 now probably won't be enough. However, given the SP spike, delaying S&P500 inclusion is beneficial - allows me to leverage up slowly as we go.

So Q2 ER will be out ~30th July with inclusion some time in August. Unless of course Elon's 3rd, 4th and 5th payments get triggered?

I knew Elon was gonna get paid a lot but I had no idea what effect they would have.

Elon’s stock comp bonus awards & why it has limited impact to $TSLA's P&L.

In March 2018 Elon was awarded 20.3 million stock options (with $350 strike price) to be released in 12 tranches after operational (revenue or EBITDA) & market cap goals are reached.

Tesla has set 16 operational Revenue and EBITDA targets and once each is achieved (up to a max 12) a tranche of options can be released subject to meeting further market cap criteria goals.

These market cap goals start at $100bn market cap increasing in $50bn increments up to a final $650bn target.
This market cap has to be achieved on average over the previous 6 months and 30 days.

Elon has to remain 1. CEO or 2. Executive Chairman and Chief Product Officer to be eligible for the awards.
Post exercise, Elon still has to hold the stock for another 5 years.

The maximum total P&L cost of the options was fixed on award date in March 2018. This cost is based on options model pricing to set the fair value of the 20.3m options on this date.

This cost was fixed at $2,283m. So this is the total cost that will ever hit the P&L even though at $650m market cap Elon’s 20m bonus shares could be worth over $31bn on issue dates (after subtracting $7.5bn paid by Elon for the $350 strikes) and ~$53.5bn market value (again less $7.5bn costs) on the day the final tranche is released.
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/55362f0a-ee8a-4fcc-ba11-cc09194974b6

How much of this $2,283m is booked to P&L each quarter is decided based on how many operational goals are currently expected to be achieved (not based on market cap goals).
Current share price and market cap do not impact the P&L.

Once a Revenue/EBITDA goal is considered probable, Tesla starts booking P&L costs for this option tranche - with the value of the tranche distributed in the P&L over the longer of the expected achievement period for either the market capitalization or operational milestone.

Tesla initially expected to meet 3 of the operational goals so since 1Q18 has been expensing for the first 3 tranches of the the stock awards at a cost of $56m per quarter.

The change in Q4 was that a 4th operational goal is now expected to be achieved and cumulative cost of this fourth tranche since the grant date in March 2018 had to be booked for $72m. So this $72m for tranche 4 was 1.75 years worth of catch up - or $10m per quarter.

So Q120 should return to an Elon bonus expense of $56m for the first three tranches plus $10m for the fourth tranche - a total $66m (down from $128m in 4Q19).

However it is also possible Tesla decides a 5th operational goal is likely in Q1 and if this is the case one off catch up cost should be another ~$70m and overall Elon bonus cost should be up ~$10-20m QoQ to ~$138-148m.
It is also possible however that the probability of these operational goals are only assessed once per year.

One further question on P&L impact in 2020 is whether Tesla has to accelerate the remaining portion of cost related to a tranche if the operational + market gap pair goal is achieved quicker than their initial estimated achievement period. So far this achievement period has not been adjusted at all despite the share price volatility the past 9 quarters and I think they may be able to continue booking P&L according to the initial predicted schedule even once a goal has been fully achieved. It is possible that cost for the 1st market cap tranche is almost fully booked already in any case.

I'm not sure if the 4th operational milestone which triggered in Q4 was $35bn revenue or $4.5bn EBITDA, but ideally $35bn revenue, $4.5bn EBITDA and $6.0bn EBITDA will all be considered likely by the end of 2020.
If these two extra milestones are booked in 2020, one off catch up cost should be $120-140m and run rate cost should increase to $80-85m. Overall and assuming the achievement period estimates are not adjusted, it looks like a maximum of ~$480m Elon bonus cost booked in 2020 vs $295m in 2019.

 

[UncaNed]

Those whose TSLA holdings have greatly grown as the TSLA share price has been soaring, may want to research the difference in income taxes for short-term and long-term (year or more) holdings. They can be quite substantial. For tax purposes, stock profits are not "realized" until shares are sold. This should be an important consideration in determining when to sell.

And for calls?

Executed calls and resulting stocks?

Thanks!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Canaccord downgraded to Hold from Buy.

 

[KarenRei]

Wild premarket.

 

[Tslynk67]

If it hits $1,100 tomorrow, I'll get a small Tesla logo tattoo and post it here. I hate tattoos btw

Depending where you put it, that might be NSFW

 

[bhtooefr]

And for calls?

Executed calls and resulting stocks?

Thanks!

IIRC, traded calls are treated just like stocks for capital gains. Hold a call for a year, it becomes long term capital gains just like a stock held for a year.

As I understand it, exercised calls increase the cost basis of the resulting stocks, but the holding period resets to when you exercise.

 

[avoigt]

My account is up more than 10X from where it was in June. My family went through extreme hardship 4 months ago, and I am now considering retiring this year or next. The first step is owning my house, so I sold 19% of my shares today at 959 to pay off my mortgage. I plan to keep 66% of my remaining shares another 5-10 years, so I have 33% of the remaining shares that I am looking to sell to pull off the retirement. My price point now is 1200 or higher. Of course, if the stock drops below 800, the retirement plans are off the table (but at least my house is paid). I think S&P 500 this year will guarantee at least 1200, but we will see. I hope I don't regret not selling more shares today because I was being greedy and wanted more money to retire with.....

Congrats and good luck!

Some know that I quit my job already last December and dedicate my time now fully to the advent of sustainable transportation through different channels like CT, E-Auto news, Twitter and Patreon a.o..

I hope that many who can proudly claim to be now wealthy or will be in the future caused by their successful investment in TSLA consider to support our all mission further as the journey to change the world to the better has just begun. We are early adapters at the end.

What for most here is obvious is for most outside our "bubble" still nonsense therefore I feel like lets be all grateful and think about how we can make an even stronger impact than before to people around us or the environment as such. We all learned a lot at TMC not only about investing but about why BEVs and batteries will win at the end but most outside don't.

Since I am a very long term investor and believe the best is still to come for Tesla and its shares I have time to think how I can maximize my modest contribution but with an increasing stock price my possibilities do increase.

I will be further around here in any case.

 

[KarenRei]

Amazing how bad the software frequently is on other EVs...

TL/DR: The only way for Bjørn to preheat a MG ZS EV in Norway while it's plugged in involves leaving the windows down