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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,546
39,565
Houston/Galveston
Giga Texas makes sense if the facility to manufacture the hulls for Cybertruck is collocated with the Tesla/SpaceX foundry for the shared production of stainless steel alloy used in both products.

If Starship manufacturing is located near Boca Chica, look for a new Tesla plant also on the SW TX coast. Brownsville is pretty small. I'd be looking at Houston, near the port...

This should be worth oh, $100 to $200 per share on TSLA. Could this week get any more "in tents"? :D

Cheers!
Interesting. NASA has a presence in Houston, of course (as does SpaceX). Still have some contacts there and I have heard absolutely zero rumors.

My bet is Giga and/or Design Center near Austin. But I would think something like that would be contingent on Texas changing auto dealership laws. I’ve heard no rumors of that, either.
 
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bhtooefr

Active Member
Apr 16, 2018
1,156
6,633
Newark, OH, USA
S&P500 inclusion:

Tesla now have to fork out for Elon's second milestone payment (market cap >$150Bn). This means that Q1 now probably won't be enough. However, given the SP spike, delaying S&P500 inclusion is beneficial - allows me to leverage up slowly as we go.

So Q2 ER will be out ~30th July with inclusion some time in August. Unless of course Elon's 3rd, 4th and 5th payments get triggered?

I knew Elon was gonna get paid a lot but I had no idea what effect they would have.
OK, so a previous post, I misparsed the operational milestone requirements, as needing two additional for the second tranche, three additional for the third tranche - it's one additional per tranche.

Two operational milestones (so two tranches worth) have been unlocked - $20B revenue for the previous four quarters, and $1.5B adjusted EBITDA. The third ($3B adjusted EBITDA) is very close.

So, yes, once $200B market cap is averaged, a third tranche would be granted.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,615
21,662
Singapore
TSLA at €780 or -3.1%

Thats $861

Now down almost 10% to EUR 769.10 in Frankfurt, aka $849.29

Looks like there's a bear/manipulation raid on-going in Europe, just like we saw a few weeks ago with the NHTSA unintended acceleration investigation and Adam Jonas downgrade.

This smells like somebody is desperate. I wonder if we'll see a huge amount of shares sold again right at open of pre-market in US. Feels like a short needs to cover, and wants to do so at lower prices perhaps?

We'll see if it works out or not. Either way, it's shaping up to be an interesting day once again.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,194
136,197
Canada
Yes, the first US integrated factory that has battery cells and vehicle production. Cybertruck, Roadster, Model 2, etc....
Integrated bty production is very likely, but with CT there's no need for Stamping, Body, and Paint.

EDIT: Obviously, SEMI needs a home and an new src of bty cells. If the cab is thermoplastics, that could work at a combined CT facility. If the Semi's cab is stamped'n'painted steel, then not so much. Why haven't our legions of Youtuber's ever sought to find out what the Semi cab is made of? Such simple stuff... :p

So its unlikely Tesla will build Model 2 at the same plant as CT. It's more likely Model 2 will be an original product from GF4/Berlin phase 3 (2023), closest to its largest market. Model 1 / "World Car" will likely be produced in China by 2024, likely at a new GF, perhaps also at a city other than Shanghai.

Roadster production likely will be collocated with the other Plaid vehicles at Fremont since most of that production is already hosted here, so they do not need to spend the CapEx for a new Paint Shop, etc.

Cheers!
 
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StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
10,005
82,973
Maple Falls, WA
Now down almost 10% to EUR 769.10 in Frankfurt, aka $849.29

Looks like there's a bear/manipulation raid on-going in Europe, just like we saw a few weeks ago with the NHTSA unintended acceleration investigation and Adam Jonas downgrade.

This smells like somebody is desperate. I wonder if we'll see a huge amount of shares sold again right at open of pre-market in US. Feels like a short needs to cover, and wants to do so at lower prices perhaps?

We'll see if it works out or not. Either way, it's shaping up to be an interesting day once again.

Agreed. One thing to consider - the short sellers are not a monolithic block all working in conjunction with each other. If they want to cover their short positions, they have to compete against one another for shares at the lowest prices.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,763
Vienna
Now down almost 10% to EUR 769.10 in Frankfurt, aka $849.29

Looks like there's a bear/manipulation raid on-going in Europe, just like we saw a few weeks ago with the NHTSA unintended acceleration investigation and Adam Jonas downgrade.

This smells like somebody is desperate. I wonder if we'll see a huge amount of shares sold again right at open of pre-market in US. Feels like a short needs to cover, and wants to do so at lower prices perhaps?

We'll see if it works out or not. Either way, it's shaping up to be an interesting day once again.

Correct, someone is selling in large volumes (compared to available liquidity) on Frankfurt Xetra to keep the TSLA price down - this could be in coordination with the Nasdaq open in about 8 minutes for a bear attack.

There is no news anywhere, manufactured or otherwise, to justify such a move. I believe hedge funds that wrote calls might be worried about this Friday's expiry and started a price and market manipulation bear attack when TSLA was getting close to $970 yesterday.

Note that the market used by the bear attack is the Xetra exchange, not Frankfurt:

upload_2020-2-5_9-56-2.png


Note the very high volumes, while both Frankfurt and Stuttgart exchanges barely registered any trading. So the short who launched this short attack is working through Xetra to have maximum impact while using one of the least liquid European exchanges that trades Tesla.

Edit, here's how the illegal market manipulation bear attack transitioned over to Nasdaq pre-market trading:

upload_2020-2-5_10-4-5.png


The first chart is 4 minutes into Nasdaq pre-market trading which started at 4am ET - the chart lined up below is Xetra, 10am CEST at the same time:
  • The short attacker, shortly before Nasdaq trading opened, started closing the short position (the bounce-back), and volume died down.
  • There was no genuine, legitimate selling pressure on Xetra - the whole point was to depress the TSLA price in Nasdaq open through the use of a single low liquidity European exchanges, using just around 70,000 shares of volume.
  • On Nasdaq volume is now lower than the European one - I suspect the bear attacker is using limit orders to keep the price fixed at significantly lower prices than yesterday's close, to establish a negative sentiment going into the open.

#2nd edit, 15 minutes more of the same charts:

upload_2020-2-5_10-17-53.png


Here you can see from the Xetra volume that whoever manufactured that price dip, very likely reversed the Xetra short position almost completely and moved operations over to the Nasdaq pre-market. While we are guessing here, regulators have access to transaction logs and can identify whether it was the same trading entity creating the dip and then recovering the short position.

Also note how Xetra volume effectively dried up after this price manipulation event - suggesting that whoever did this didn't have any legitimate EU investment purposes, but the sole purpose was to manipulate the Nasdaq early-hours opening price.

There is very few legitimate reasons for such trading activity - pretty much the only purpose is to manipulate and distort the market.

#3rd edit, this is yesterday's "$100 TSLA flash crash" event:

upload_2020-2-5_10-21-51.png


That is a 30sec chart from Nasdaq on 02/04/2020, where unknown entities manipulated the TSLA price at around 15:49 ET and the surrounding minutes to drop $100 in a short period of time, by using aggressive, abusive market orders or far-below-bid sell limit orders to 'mark down the price' without any real intention to sell effectively.

In this case too no rational investor in Tesla securities would execute trades in this fashion (because they'd lose tens of millions of dollars executing sell orders in such a poor fashion), and there was no Tesla or macro news driving this action.

Time for Tesla shareholders to file SEC complaints I suspect. European regulators should have no trouble finding out who was selling short those shares well below yesterday's market prices.

Here's the place to file a SEC Investor Complaint - European shareholders can file complaints too:


After filling out personal details, I'd suggest a variant of this for the "Tell Us About Your Complaint" field:

On or around February 5, 2020, 4am ET, a "short and distort" campaign was launched against Tesla (TSLA:NASDAQ) investors in European trading, on the low liquidity Xetra exchange (TL0:XTRA), and on the Nasdaq early-trading system.

The purpose of this attack was to illegally manipulate the Nasdaq early trading opening price, by unknown parties suspected to be options writers for $800+ strikes on Friday's 02/07 TSLA options expiry series.

A timestamped, annotated summary of events can be found at this link:
Code:
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4451429/

The link also contains description of the "$100 TSLA Flash Crash" market manipulation event that occurred at around 02/04/2020 15:49 ET, when unknown parties executed large and deliberately ineffective order flow in an effort to mark down the TSLA price and trigger "stop-loss" orders, which caused harm to TSLA investors.

All of these abusive, illegal actions have harmed the market value of my TSLA shares or options.​

Only file a SEC complaint if you agree with the contents, of course! :D

Also note that even if this SEC administration decides not to inquire into these market anomalies, there's an election at the end of the year and the next administration might. All investor complaints have to be archived and stored indefinitely by the SEC I believe.
 
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Prunesquallor

His cardinal virtue? An undamaged brain.
Supporting Member
Dec 19, 2018
3,546
39,565
Houston/Galveston
'Giga Texas?' Musk asks Twitter users to vote on new gigafactory

(Reuters) - Elon Musk, the billionaire chief executive officer of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O), went on Twitter to ask users if the electric carmaker should build a new gigafactory in Texas.

"Giga Texas?" Musk tweeted here giving two options - "hell yeah" and "nope." The poll garnered over 102,000 responses as of 11:15 p.m. PT Tuesday, with about 80% voting in favor of the new gigafactory.
 

UncaNed

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Apr 8, 2015
1,513
5,818
East coast
I second this. I also lured into option trading after few days reading.
My first venture .. lost 10k and another 5k loss is in progress.
Luckily, today long gains got me enough to cover the loss.

Well, maybe me just dont know how to do it correctly but my option trading career wont go much further for sure.
I started in November. Totally opposite experience by order on magnitude... I'm prolly lucky, not smart.
 
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mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,514
42,346
Michigan
bounched back up at frankfurt, was down 10%, now only 5% (800euro or 880 usd)

Still low volume too, was 16k at dip, still under 18k (Yahoo delayed)

I keep hearing about $$$ movements, $60 at sp 900 = $20 at sp 300 or $13.33 when sp was $200.

Shouldn't we be talking in %'s instead of $'s?
Thoughts: Account value = shares x price. Up $10k is more meaningful to me than y%. Option values are $ based. Plus, down 5 up 5 only cancels out when using currency.
 
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