Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CalX]

Right, Andrew Left seems to be a more conventional profit oriented trader. A bit of a maverick among the hoards of orcs.

Somehow when Andrew issues his opinion on TV, I have seen really huge moves in the stock right after. I don't know how he does it but he seems to be able influence a lot of MMs.

 

[Pricee2]

It was 5 years of share price manipulation designed to keep the share price relatively flat, finally losing control and the share price trying to find a "better" or more fair valuation of the company.

Right on IMHO.

 

[EinSV]

How much of that is just price movement?

Over 100%.

Short interest by shares is down significantly, SP is up over 100%, with the net effect that short interest by $ has roughly doubled (fluctuates daily given massive volatility) This assumes Ihor's numbers are at least somewhere in the ballpark

 

[humbaba]

Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes, not really. (There has been very minimal short covering from what S3 has reported.)

OTOH, there has been steady net short covering since August. S3 publishes numbers, but sadly they don't always track reality. And @ihors3 has previously claimed shorts were covering when the real data later showed that they were doubling down.

14.79MM shares net cover over the last 9 reporting periods, or about 3.3MM each month. There is definitely net short covering going on. Ignore S3 made up numbers. All you really have is the ever-stale figures from NASDAQ

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest

 

[chrsk]

I guess the problem is that a lot of people really actual believe that the electric car business is doomed. Not the future...

Tesla need to prove results over time, that’s the only way. Unless they do that the short will look only more tempting as long as the stock price keep climbing.

 

[sparcs]

That is one IPO I would stay away from. Overhead costs to maintain that constellation will be huge. There is also a lot of competition already planned, which will keep costs down. I think it makes sense to have SpaceX owning/running it given their incredibly cheap launch costs, but a stand alone company might not always get such a good deal.

since it's a worthwhile discussion I started a new thread here: Starlink IPO

MOD:
Thank you. All 'found' prior posts moved to there.

 

[Skryll]

Is that photoshopped or for reals:

Cybertruck rock crawler? Well Howdy, Partner!



!

 

[Nocturnal]

This is no reply to the last post.

The more i look, the more i feel it's copying the 2013 may run.

And IF it does, we are at that cross today:

View attachment 508596

But even if not, "buy and HODL" seems like the best, easy, painless plan for the upcoming years.

Disclaimer: After 4 years of owning a Tesla my wife starts to trust the future of this company and she really had trust issues. So yes, this run up did change the public perception. Besides some call-play-money for me, we are in to hold all shares and add more into 2025 at minimum.

Don't trade on my advice. Do your own research.

Before my time but what triggered the 13 run?

 

[humbaba]

Over 100%.

Short interest by shares is down significantly, SP is up over 100%, with the net effect that short interest by $ has roughly doubled (fluctuates daily given massive volatility) This assumes Ihor's numbers are at least somewhere in the ballpark

Here's the real data. If you want to overlay it with @ihors3 you can either do it yourself or look up one of my older posts. If you source from him, keep in mind that he retroactively corrects for reality which makes his charts look more accurate than they really are. This is from the real NASDAQ data.

 

[chrsk]

Before my time but what triggered the 13 run?

The production and delivery of the Model S.

 

[uselesslogin]

Before my time but what triggered the 13 run?

$0.12 GAAP profit

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is that photoshopped or for reals:

click the link

 

[kbM3]

@Fact Checking post on the manipulation from Tuesday has made Reddit.

What really happened to Tesla - Guess what - we should be over 1k rn. : teslainvestorsclub

 

[mongo]

Is that photoshopped or for reals:

Render by
Humdinger 3D (@humdinger_3d) • Instagram photos and videos

 

[wipster]

What a wild ride today!

 

[Lycanthrope]

Forgive the utterly moronic noob question, but.......why are the bid/ask figures often well above SP when getting TSLA quotes on Yahoo? Is the bid/ask data simply delayed far more than the SP? Seems silly to even provide this info in the quote if there's that much disconnect.

Because the "last price" is updated the the option is bought or sold - if the SP has moved significantly since the last sale they can become quite mis-matched.

 

[wipster]

@Fact Checking post on the manipulation from Tuesday has made Reddit.

What really happened to Tesla - Guess what - we should be over 1k rn. : teslainvestorsclub

OMFG!!

 

[Causalien]

Over a 10 year period, if your trading account outperforms your investing account then I know you are either an outstanding trader or a terrible investor!

By default, the trading account is supposed to outperform the investing account.
Investment is more conservative with a larger $$$ amount. Trading account by default is a smalller $$$ amount and hence can engage in more volatile activities. Investment account diversified, trading account concentrated.

 

[Silentkeravelt]

@Fact Checking post on the manipulation from Tuesday has made Reddit.

What really happened to Tesla - Guess what - we should be over 1k rn. : teslainvestorsclub

With useful comment explaining it in simple terms:

by Kirk57

I’ll give you an example:

In June when the stock price was $180 Fred (being a very astute Tesla fan) realized, it was fundamentally very underpriced. Rather than buying more shares, he decides to buy call options at $750 / share that expire Feb. 7th. XYZ institution makes a lot of money by capitalizing on irrational dreamers like Fred. They looked at their data and realized no large company ever has stock that goes up 4X in less than a year. So they’re willing to sell Fred 10k options at $0.15 each.

Each option gives Fred the right to buy 100 shares of Tesla from XYZ at $750 any time over the next 8 months. So:

each option costs Fred $0.15 * 100 = $15.
10k options cost Fred $150k.

They give him the right to buy 1M shares of Tesla anytime on or before Feb. 7th for $750.

Fred’s breakeven point on the stock is $750.15. He would buy the 1M shares at $700, sell them at $700.15 and get his initial $150k back.

However if Tesla is at $1500 per share Friday, Fred buys the 1M shares from XYZ for $750, resells them for $1500 and makes $750M!

XYZ institution is sitting there in June feeling very happy with the $150k they got from Fred. Easy money!

In July TSLA goes back in the $200’s but XYZ is not that nervous.

Tesla releases the surprise Q3 results and Tesla soon jumps into the $300’s .

Now XYZ is a little nervous, so they buy 50k shares of Tesla stock. That way at least as Tesla rises, they’re protected a little in their bet, because they’ll have some of those shares, plus those shares appreciate, so it would mitigate their loss to Fred.

Tesla releases q4 and the stock jumps again. Now XYZ buys 200k shares of Tesla. XYZ and other institutions are now continually buying shares to hedge their bet against people like Fred, just in case they have to give him 1M shares below market value.

Ironically this is happening to such a large extent, this hedging causes the stock price to rise again and causes XYZ to buy even more shares! They’re now caught in a positive feedback loop where this call hedging, plus shorts covering, is causing TSLA to skyrocket, gaining more and more each day.

Now it’s Wednesday and TSLA is shooting up to over a $200 gain in one day following a $100 gain the day before. Poor XYZ has only bought 300k shares, but come Friday, they’re going to have to sell Fred 1M shares. They now know they are looking at a $750M loss to Fred, but maybe even worse, if the positive feed back loop accelerates.

So they decide to illegally force Tesla down. The problem is that if they do it more than 15 minutes before close, it will trigger a rule that will prevent them from continuing the next day. So 13 minutes before close they borrow 2M shares and sell them for lower prices than they’re worth to immediately stop Tesla’s momentum and drive the price down. They know lots of nervousTesla shareholders set limits in the $900’s to lock in their gains, and so they can start a reaction where those investors will automatically sell and the price will drop under $900 / share.

Now early yesterday morning they can sell more shares in the small German index and drive the price down further very easily, and spook lots of investors and cause everyone to sell and drive the price to the $700’s. Now slowly they can buy back the 2M shares at $750 that they borrowed at $950 and make a very nice profit of $400M.

On Friday, Tesla will close at $748 and Fred will get $0.00. XYZ pockets Fred’s $150k and they win again. They know there’s no risk, because the SEC never prosecutes stuff like this.

THE END

 

[azaz]

the pin around 750 is MMs or genuine buying strength?