Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

For the record, I don't think @MFranc123 is trying to pull a care-bear raid here. I think that they legitimately mean what they're saying, and legitimately mean the best.

Heck, half of us here already do that (deleverage on the way up, releverage on the way down). If we're going to chew out anyone who believe in that trading strategy, there's a lot of people on this forum that will become targets.

At the same time, I'd ask @MFranc123 understand that we regularly get lame care-bear raid attempts here, they're really annoying, and so to be understanding when people react harshly any time it looks like someone might be trying to pull one.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't feel the need to defend myself. For the record, I was way under before this, and due to sheer luck buying deep a few OTM options (to participate in what people where theorizing to be a short gamma squeeze) I came out on top.

For the record though, I almost completely liquidated my Tesla position, and I'm going to turn it into a tiny short on monday compared to what it used to be just to stay invested in this story. When I say tiny, I mean *literally* one share. That's to give you the idea of the size of my portfolio. Again, I'm a retail "investor".

I do feel the need to defend the message. I'm just asking retail people with a lot at stake to consider the size of their position. Nothing is going to change if 10 people sell 500 shares each (which is never going to happen because of my message anyway) when the daily volume is in the billions! If you have 5000 shares or a $10M option position, you're just laughing at me for posting this. I'm just saying, if your retirement is riding on this.

I won't post any further message in this forum. I definitely understand why I'm very not welcome. And if the admins see fit, they can forward my email to law enforcement. While I'm pseudonymous, I am not using any VPN (you can confirm this by checking that my IP is coming from the most popular ISP in my region, or sometimes from a mobile provider IP, again very much used in Italy).

I will just finish this by saying that I did not think my message which literally only talked about position sizing, not direction or timing, would be received this way. Every single conversation I previously had in this forum was people being nice to me.

You would probably be better received if you provided well-reasoned support for your belief that Tesla is not going to succeed considering their well-recognized leadership in one of the fastest-growing segments (EV's) of one of the largest markets in the world (automobiles).

 

[Unpilot]

Man the simulation takes some strange turns.

 

[Nocturnal]

I will just finish this by saying that I did not think my message which literally only talked about position sizing, not direction or timing, would be received this way. Every single conversation I previously had in this forum was people being nice to me.

I don't think anyone is being all that mean to you. I'm glad you are doing well but surely you understand your motives are suspect given the company you keep. You may as well be advising us to not breathe water. If I made a similar post amongst the TSLAQ crowd at best I'd be blocked immediately, at worst harassed, insulted, etc.

 

[NicoV]

I don't feel the need to defend myself. For the record, I was way under before this, and due to sheer luck buying deep a few OTM options (to participate in what people where theorizing to be a short gamma squeeze) I came out on top.

For the record though, I almost completely liquidated my Tesla position, and I'm going to turn it into a tiny short on monday compared to what it used to be just to stay invested in this story. When I say tiny, I mean *literally* one share. That's to give you the idea of the size of my portfolio. Again, I'm a retail "investor".

I do feel the need to defend the message. I'm just asking retail people with a lot at stake to consider the size of their position. Nothing is going to change if 10 people sell 500 shares each (which is never going to happen because of my message anyway) when the daily volume is in the billions! If you have 5000 shares or a $10M option position, you're just laughing at me for posting this. I'm just saying, if your retirement is riding on this.

I won't post any further message in this forum. I definitely understand why I'm very not welcome. And if the admins see fit, they can forward my email to law enforcement. While I'm pseudonymous, I am not using any VPN (you can confirm this by checking that my IP is coming from the most popular ISP in my region, or sometimes from a mobile provider IP, again very much used in Italy).

I will just finish this by saying that I did not think my message which literally only talked about position sizing, not direction or timing, would be received this way. Every single conversation I previously had in this forum was people being nice to me.

Taking a profit as you advise is probably a wise thing to do, if the money is something you need. But a lot of the people on this forum (that includes me) only invest with money that they can afford to lose (and have emotionally accepted the possibility that they lose all that money). For those investors, losing everything they have in TSLA won’t affect their life style. Seeing TSLA go up to 5x, 10x, whatever, WILL change the remainder of their lives (and according to many posts, it already has). For those investors, the big risk is not losing their investment, but missing the (future) gains, and selling now is thus a bad idea (unless you already achieved the necessary gains to change your life).

 

[sparcs]

For the record, I don't think @MFranc123 is trying to pull a care-bear raid here. I think that they legitimately mean what they're saying, and legitimately mean the best.

Heck, half of us here already do that (deleverage on the way up, releverage on the way down). If we're going to chew out anyone who believe in that trading strategy, there's a lot of people on this forum that will become targets.

I think his only mistake is assuming that we don't already talk about managing risk and the volatility of TSLA due to the media, FUD, etc. That is pretty much the way of life investing in TSLA. His post sounds like he's desperately begging us to change our ways because we are all delusional bulls with only fairytales on our minds. He might have chosen a different way to frame the post (assuming he is sincere).

 

[Zero CO2]

One can't profit unless they sell the stock. From the looks of it, those who sell at 900 made out like a bandit compared to those who held on today.

one does not accumulate wealth from 10X-20X-30X companies by day trading , taxes and the lack of ability to time the market will erode long term gains significantly. unless in tax sheltered account , and even there your ability to time it is tough ... such pronounced spikes are not the norm ....so selling at 900 and buying at 700 is a very rare occurrence indeed .

 

[Prunesquallor]

For the record though, I almost completely liquidated my Tesla position, and I'm going to turn it into a tiny short on monday compared to what it used to be just to stay invested in this story. When I say tiny, I mean *literally* one share. That's to give you the idea of the size of my portfolio. Again, I'm a retail "investor".

Get rid of that last one. Get clean.

 

[davecolene0606]

Omg! The Battery Day is on Tuesday, Feb 18th. It’s happening!!!

Wonder if the bots are gonna pick that up followed by CNBS/MSM followed by shortz complaints to ShortEnrichmentCommittee that “they were surprised” and this must be purposeful manipulation meant only to harms their good intentions of routing out fwaud in the free market

MOD: This post refers to a post that is 100% pure misinformation. Under normal circumstances, you would be seeing a deleted link with the words "Refers to deleted link". In this special situation, the link has been left....but it's just an inanity. Don't bother clicking.
You're welcome.
Fire Away!
(It’s the batteries, Stupid!)

 

[SageBrush]

What I think is relevant is the trend in net shares shorted, which is steadily dropping, but not fast enough to keep the value at risk from growing to points it has never reached before.

Then you must be horrified by the APPL short position at risk, even though it is a small percentage of market value.

My point is this:
If we accept that some 12.5 million short shares are part of hedges (and therefore do not carry the same risk as a naked short), the presumed maximum naked short position has dropped from (44-12.5) = 31.5 million shares to its current (24-12.5) = 11.5 million. Starting from 180 million shares (up for some debate), that is a 11.5/180 = 6.4% short fraction of the possible naked type.

Still high, but for one thing, it takes the discussion of a short squeeze off the table.

 

[SageBrush]

I'm just saying, if your retirement is riding on this...

Agree completely. In particular for people approaching retirement putting all of most of one's savings in one stock is plain foolish. It would be a rare person who thinks otherwise.

I don't know why your reception here has been so heated. Just a WAG -- people here are invested in TSLA to make money, but they are also by and large committed Tesla advocates. You appear to have no interest in the company so your motives are misaligned with most people here.

 

[The Accountant]

What's your perspective?
It's 1910, two salesmen from competing companies are sent to a third world country to assess the market for shoes.

Salesman One scouts around for a few days and then heads for the telegraph office to contact company headquarters. He writes: "Research complete. Unmitigated disaster. Nobody here wears shoes."

Likewise, Salesman Two does his research and heads for the same telegraph office. Once there, he composes the following: "Research complete. Glorious opportunity! Nobody here wears shoes!"​

It's 2020, two TSLA investors are assessing their stock holdings.

Investor One reviews the stock price on February 6th logs onto TMC forum to inform members of his findings...
He writes: "Research complete. Unmitigated disaster. Stock was over $900 and now we're at $748 - we should have sold."​

Likewise, Investor Two does his research and logs onto the TMC forum to inform members of his findings....
He composes the following: "Research complete. Glorious opportunity! Stock was at $418 at year-end and 5 weeks into the year we're at $748. Must buy more!"​

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla (TSLA) Short Selling Temporarily Restricted by SEC

 

[rsm287]

Tesla (TSLA) Short Selling Temporarily Restricted by SEC

Seems to just be the Up-Tick rule.

 

[killianss]

PS. Also for a buy-and-hold investor, the abject manipulation that we quite clearly saw this week is upsetting because it did spook a lot of investors, like one of our own TMC moderators who decided to liquidate his entire TSLA position at 200 points below the intraday ATH. To make matters worse, the selling avalanche was in this case so great, that the initial trade that should have cost a lot of money very likely ended up being profitable in itself, because the SP went so far down that the covering could almost certainly be done at a profit. Which means that we can expect to see this again - like we have before.

I just got rid my margin and missed quite a bit of profit from ATH. Planning to buy more margin when the next bear raid.
In the meantime, 75% my holding is still in TSLA and 25% is in company IRA that i couldn't touch. Still ...2X or more profit than my initial investment

Thanks for the insight!

 

[mongo]

Tesla (TSLA) Short Selling Temporarily Restricted by SEC

Yeah, we said that yesterday morning. It ended today.

 

[KarenRei]

Glad to see them keeping shipping going at quite apace

I made a graph. I'm rather dubious they'll catch up to the number of ships as in Q4 (one of which outright departed at the end of Q3 - Q4 started with a lot of EU inventory ready), but it's in the range of possibilities.

 

[Thekiwi]

Glad to see them keeping shipping going at quite apace

View attachment 508700

I made a graph. I'm still dubious they'll catch up to the number of ships as in Q4 (one of which outright departed at the end of Q3 - e.g. Q4 had a much higher inventory start to the quarter than Q1), but it's in the range of possibilities.

View attachment 508709

One thing I’m unsure on is that there were 3 ships heading for AUS/NZ on the image you shared earlier today, seems unlikely they are going to be carrying a similar amount on average compared to ships heading to Europe - unless I’m vastly underestimating Australia demand. I wonder if they are building inventory of RHD models significantly so that they won’t have to build those again next quarter (while the 3 GA lines are stretched to accommodate Y ramp up)

 

[KarenRei]

One thing I’m unsure on is that there were 3 ships heading for AUS/NZ on the image you shared earlier today, seems unlikely they are going to be carrying a similar amount on average compared to ships heading to Europe - unless I’m vastly underestimating Australia demand. I wonder if they are building inventory of RHD models significantly so that they won’t have to build those again next quarter (while the 3 GA lines are stretched to accommodate Y ramp up)

Two ships to AUS / NZ (London Express and Cap Capricorn), not three. Those are container ships and are not on the list. The ROROs being tracked are:

Viking Bravery: Taipei
Grand Mark: Zeebrugge
Glovis Sigma: Pyeongtaek
Glovis Challenge: Zeebrugge
Morning Conductor: Pyeongtaek
Glovis Cosmos: Zeebrugge
Morning Catherine: Qingdao

... and now Brooklands is being loaded, destination unknown.

I find the two ships to Pyeongtaek to be very interesting. Even though the first had quite a short loading time and was probably a shared load, there must be some killer demand in South Korea right now. Of course, their incentives are massive.

 

[Thekiwi]

Two ships to AUS / NZ (London Express and Cap Capricorn), not three. Those are container ships and are not on the list. The ROROs being tracked are:

Viking Bravery: Taipei
Grand Mark: Zeebrugge
Glovis Sigma: Pyeongtaek
Glovis Challenge: Zeebrugge
Morning Conductor: Pyeongtaek
Glovis Cosmos: Zeebrugge
Morning Catherine: Qingdao

... and now Brooklands is being loaded, destination unknown, scheduled departure on the 6th.

I find the two ships to Pyeongtaek to be very interesting. Even though the first had quite a short loading time and was probably a shared load, there must be some killer demand in South Korea right now. Of course, their incentives are massive.

thanks for that!