Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

Why split up an expensive resource between stalls, when it makes more sense to have one big high capacity (both in terms of discharge rate and buffering capacity) capable battery for the whole installation? That way you always maximize the utilization of the system. In fact, adding batteries to assist with reducing demand charges has been specifically mentioned by Elon/Tesla at some point for V3 installations (though I'm not sure if any existing ones have them yet)

It is a long shot, but I did put some thought into it...

Say be have a bank of Powerpacks - peak power output = P1
if we have N cars charging at anytime the average power each cars gets is P1/N.
So the question is if we size the Powerpacks for peak energy storage or peak charging..?.
If we have an auxiliary battery in each stall which can output P2..... (assuming it is fully charged, or charged enough)
The peak rate of charging may be P1/N + P2, or perhaps just P2 where P2 is > P1/N.

We know Maxwell cells can absorb power and discharge power at a higher rate than a normal battery....

In reality it is most unlikely to be true, the investor day may simply have been moved to promote solar..

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I ate an edible and I don’t know how to set up a pole. Just wondering who thinks Tesla will have a loss and my god it will shock the market again! or who thinks Tesla will surprise the market with a loss.

My vote is Tesla will have a loss this Quarter. They are ramping the Y and 3 China. The earnings report said there might be a loss when ramping products. Q1 is usually a loss. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tesla and I invested the majority of my savings in it for it least 10 years.

There is also the virus going on right. After Q1 and the virus is under control I will invest more into Tesla.

You know what's wrong with this thinking? That you risk becoming a short for the next few months. Someone who's hoping Tesla Q1 sales will be bad. But not just that. You may start hoping they will not publish a battery breakthrough before Q1 results come out, maybe even that there's a forced Tesla recall. Or worse, that the rate of corona virus infections rises again. Being in a position where you are waiting, no, hoping for lower prices will do bad things to your mind. You will move over to the dark side. Don't go there!

A lot of people who got out at 400, 500 or 600 are in this same position. They are waiting for a lower entry point. And that may only come when bad things happen to Tesla. Some of them will even start hoping for these bad things to happen, if only temporary. Which puts them, more or less, in the same camp as the shorts. That's not a position you want to be in.

 

[uselesslogin]

Strange that Nasdaq hasn't released the Jan 31 short interest. They show the dissemination date as Feb 11.

This has to be like the person who made sure it got out right after the close left and the new guy keeps forgetting. It isn’t just TSLA. No stock is getting updated.

 

[Fact Checking]

Strange that Nasdaq hasn't released the Jan 31 short interest. They show the dissemination date as Feb 11.

That's indeed weird - the Nasdaq site is not showing the 01/31 update for other Nasdaq companies either. The normal schedule to release it would have been a few hours after 4pm ET yesterday.

 

[SageBrush]

You know what's wrong with this thinking? That you're becoming a short for the next few months. Someone who's hoping Tesla Q1 sales will be bad. But not just that. You will start hoping they will not publish a battery breakthrough before Q1 results come out, maybe even that the rate of corona virus infections rises again. Or that there's a forced Tesla recall. Being in a position where you are waiting, no, hoping for lower prices will do bad things to your mind. You will move over to the dark side. Don't go there!

A lot of people who got out at 400, 500 or 600 are in this same position. They are waiting for a lower entry point. And that may only come when bad things happen to Tesla. Some of them will even start hoping for these bad things to happen, if only temporary. Which puts them, more or less, in the same camp as the shorts. That's not a position you want to be in.

Interesting insight, thanks for sharing. There is though a difference between hoping for news that increases one's profits and turning into a FUD spewing, lying short.

Personally, I have cash waiting to buy more TSLA if it drops; and if the SP rises my investment benefits. This seems to offer me some emotional equilibrium to ride the waves of volatility. I also try to remember that the short term volatility is a zero sum game played out between investors and it has little effect on Tesla.

 

[Fact Checking]

Strange that Nasdaq hasn't released the Jan 31 short interest. They show the dissemination date as Feb 11.

Found the latest short interest data on another site (shortsqueeze.com), short interest dropped by about ~2 million shares:

01/31/2020 22,750,000   <= The latest on 01/31, when TSLA closed at $650
01/15/2020 24,954,265
12/31/2019 26,259,152
12/13/2019 27,496,754
11/29/2019 28,651,737
11/15/2019 30,614,501

(Note that the site appears to be rounding the Nasdaq figures to about 50k.)

@ReflexFunds is estimating that about 9-10 million shares of the short position are held by debt funds who bought the convertible notes - so there's still quite a bit of additional shorts beyond those convert hedges.

 

[SageBrush]

Found the latest short interest data on another site (shortsqueeze.com), short interest dropped by about ~2 million shares:

01/31/2020 22,750,000   <= The latest on 01/31, when TSLA closed at $650
01/15/2020 24,954,265
12/31/2019 26,259,152
12/13/2019 27,496,754
11/29/2019 28,651,737
11/15/2019 30,614,501

(Note that the site appears to be rounding the Nasdaq figures to about 50k.)

@ReflexFunds is estimating that about 9-10 million shares of the short position are held by debt funds who bought the convertible notes - so there's still quite a bit of additional shorts beyond those convert hedges.

This seems to me to be the right way to think about the short position, since a hedge is quite a bit different than a naked short. If we start from 10M in hedge positions then

SP Non_hedged_Short_Shares
300 20M
650 12M

This makes it look like the shorts have eaten their losses but maintain about the same investment in their negative sentiment.

 

[SageBrush]

One of the symptoms of cannabis intoxication can be unfounded fears (paranoia). Something to consider...

That would be unusual.
OTOH shorts should definitely take up tobacco for its anxiolytic effects

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Interesting insight, thanks for sharing. There is though a difference between hoping for news that increases one's profits and turning into a FUD spewing, lying short.

Personally, I have cash waiting to buy more TSLA if it drops; and if the SP rises my investment benefits. This seems to offer me some emotional equilibrium to ride the waves of volatility. I also try to remember that the short term volatility is a zero sum game played out between investors and it has little effect on Tesla.

Yes, still having a position in Tesla with cash to buy more will mitigate this kind of thinking. In that case SP going up or down are both ‘good’. But being all out is a dangerous position to be in.

 

[KarenRei]

I didn't even realize Ford had a new Bronco.

They don't even have to, for that sort of graph. Here's a graph of Model Y vs. Model T:

I don't think Ford has a new Model T

 

[Mike Smith]

Found the latest short interest data on another site (shortsqueeze.com), short interest dropped by about ~2 million shares:

01/31/2020 22,750,000   <= The latest on 01/31, when TSLA closed at $650
01/15/2020 24,954,265
12/31/2019 26,259,152
12/13/2019 27,496,754
11/29/2019 28,651,737
11/15/2019 30,614,501

(Note that the site appears to be rounding the Nasdaq figures to about 50k.)

@ReflexFunds is estimating that about 9-10 million shares of the short position are held by debt funds who bought the convertible notes - so there's still quite a bit of additional shorts beyond those convert hedges.

Thanks for finding that. Looks like Ihor missed almost the entire decline during that period. He showed 24.26 million on Jan 31.

 

[LN1_Casey]

They don't even have to, for that sort of graph. Here's a graph of Model Y vs. Model T:

View attachment 510403

I don't think Ford has a new Model T

That just means those blue states are not aware the Tesla truck is now called "Cybertruck."

 

[KarenRei]

That just means those blue states are not aware the Tesla truck is now called "Cybertruck."

Yep.

Really, it's so easy to misuse Google Trends. XKCD had fun with it a while back:
Google Trends Maps

 

[Fact Checking]

This is big, the new German EV subsidies were finally submitted to the EU, who approved them with very little delay:

EV subsidy increase in Germany green lit by EU - electrive.com​

"Brussels has given the green light for an increase in the EV subsidy scheme, the Environmental Bonus in Germany. According to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the European Commission today announced that it has no objections to greater financial support for electric vehicles in Germany."

"The adjusted subsidy guideline will be published in the publication for Federal German government notifications, the Bundesanzeiger, in February and thus become effective. The new subsidy rates are to apply retroactively to all vehicles registered after 4 November 2019, according to the Ministry for Economic Affairs."

"The date was set retroactively for 4 November last year because this was the date that a car summit took place in the German Chancellery when politicians and companies generally agreed to increase the subsidy rates and extend the subsidy measure. Later in November, the German cabinet had also officially initiated the change."

"Among other things, the decision was made to increase the existing environmental bonus for purely electric cars with a net list price of fewer than 40,000 euros from 4,000 to 6,000 euros, while 5,000 euros will still be subsidized with a net list price of up to 65,000 euros. Plug-in hybrids will also continue to be subsidized, with the rate rising from 3,000 to 4,500 euros up to a net list price of 40,000 euros. The only small change compared to the press release after the car summit: The subsidy for PHEVs with a net list price between 40,000 and 65,000 euros will only increase to 3,750 euros instead of the announced 4,000 euros. This extension and the increase have been approved in principle in today’s announcement, as communicated in the most recent press release."​

"Net list price" is exclusive VAT, right? So the Model 3 SR+ would be under the €40,000 limit and would be subject to the highest subsidy of €6,000.

Q1 Tesla demand in Germany secured!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

This is big, the new German EV subsidies were finally submitted to the EU, who approved them with very little delay:

EV subsidy increase in Germany green lit by EU - electrive.com​

"Brussels has given the green light for an increase in the EV subsidy scheme, the Environmental Bonus in Germany. According to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the European Commission today announced that it has no objections to greater financial support for electric vehicles in Germany."

"The adjusted subsidy guideline will be published in the publication for Federal German government notifications, the Bundesanzeiger, in February and thus become effective. The new subsidy rates are to apply retroactively to all vehicles registered after 4 November 2019, according to the Ministry for Economic Affairs."

"The date was set retroactively for 4 November last year because this was the date that a car summit took place in the German Chancellery when politicians and companies generally agreed to increase the subsidy rates and extend the subsidy measure. Later in November, the German cabinet had also officially initiated the change."

"Among other things, the decision was made to increase the existing environmental bonus for purely electric cars with a net list price of fewer than 40,000 euros from 4,000 to 6,000 euros, while 5,000 euros will still be subsidized with a net list price of up to 65,000 euros. Plug-in hybrids will also continue to be subsidized, with the rate rising from 3,000 to 4,500 euros up to a net list price of 40,000 euros. The only small change compared to the press release after the car summit: The subsidy for PHEVs with a net list price between 40,000 and 65,000 euros will only increase to 3,750 euros instead of the announced 4,000 euros. This extension and the increase have been approved in principle in today’s announcement, as communicated in the most recent press release."​

"Net list price" is exclusive VAT, right? So the Model 3 SR+ would be under the €40,000 limit and would be subject to the highest subsidy of €6,000.

Q1 Tesla demand in Germany secured!

Net list price is including all taxes and fees.

 

[Jackl1956]

Fire at Louisiana ExxonMobil refinery seen for miles; no injuries

 

[AlexS]

some production data from China found on twitter

 

[SageBrush]

This is big, the new German EV subsidies were finally submitted to the EU, who approved them with very little delay:

That does sound pretty fantastic.

Are there any limits to total subsidy or last date it is in effect ?

Excuse my skepticism but I cannot help but think that the German request was put in when VW thought they would have a boatload of ID.3 to sell, but due to their production problems this may turn into a Tesla bonanza.

Addendum:
"As before, the federal government and car manufacturers will share the subsidy equally. The federal government is making 2.09 billion euros available for the extended subsidy – the environmental bonus will be paid until the end of 2025 or until the budget is exhausted. "

That is a lot of cars. Approaches up to a 1 million car subsidy

 

[Lycanthrope]

Do they work after-hours? My 720 was not triggered. Do i have to do smth. magical?

Don't know about your broker or the general rule, but for me a regular order doesn't execute in pre/after market. For these hours you need a specific order and in my case it's only good for that session, so you need to keep remaking it.

 

[Fact Checking]

Net list price is including all taxes and fees.

I don't think that's correct, the term "Nettolistenpreis" in Germany has a special meaning that excludes VAT and other taxes, while "Bruttolistenpreis" includes VAT.

Here's the definition for corporate cars to calculate the Gross list price from the Net list price:

Firmenwagen: Bruttolistenpreis ermitteln leicht gemacht

Diese Extras rechnen Sie in den Bruttolistenpreis ein:

• ABS
• Airbag
• Anhängerkupplung
• Autoradio
• Diebstahlsicherung
• Elektronisches Fahrtenbuch
• Feuerlöscher
• Gasantrieb
• Katalysator
• Klimaanlage
• Mehrwertsteuer
• Navigationsgerät
• Preisnachlass
• Standheizung

VAT is listed.

Can anyone from Germany confirm this?

Edit:

Here's an article about the previous EV subsidies that calculates it specifically:

Artikel des ACE LENKRAD

"ein Nettolistenpreis unterhalb von 40.000 Euro (brutto: 47.600 Euro)."​

I.e. all Model 3 SR+ orders below €47,600 are eligible for the larger, €6,000 subsidy.

All Model 3's orders below €77,350 are eligible for the €4,000 subsidy, this includes the LR AWD and the Performance models as well, which max out at €60,390 currently.

Edit #2:

The way these ZEV subsidies work in Germany is that half of the subsidy is listed in the price, half of it is paid to the customer by the German state. A Model 3 SR+ in the German configurator costs €44,390 currently, but this includes the old subsidy of -€2,000.

Under the new rules Tesla is going to drop the price by another €1,000, to €43,390, and customers will be able to get a check for €3,000 once they apply for the credit. Total purchase price will be around €40,390 + €980 doc fee - which is pretty darn competitive!