Need is not the same as want. They don't need more cash, but they want it. My hunch is that they really want GF5 for the Cybertruck up and running as soon as possible.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
CNBC doing backflips of joy on this announcement for some reason? "All eyes on Tesla" at the open.....Lol!
Green today would be nice.
Green today would be nice.
Conveniently forgotten by pundits that Tesla paid off their loans long ago and much, much sooner than required.
A way over exaggerated move to what is no more than 1.5-2% dilution of the previous share count. Great time (for us) to buy more.
Krugerrand
Meow
In actual news... today is a momentous day at GF4
@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter
View attachment 510727
Harvesters are standing by, waiting for the signal:
@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter
Let’s say a prayer for the insects, rodents and bunny rabbits that didn’t get relocated.
I think the shorts are going to try and control the narrative with a push down.
edit: then again you might be right
Krugerrand
Meow
Dude, where’s my $1880?
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Did anyone read about the subpoena from the SEC? I don’t want to give any of those articles any clicks....
lafrisbee
Active Member
OK. Now You spoke from the TSLA Podium to us Tesla Fanboys so we have to take what YOU say with a grain of salt. But I thought I'd read the comments to get a less biased perspective ( I also read Der Spiegel when I want to know what is really going on in the USA).
The very first post under this article summed up the sentiment of a large segment of Europe... this is encouraging.
"
80 degrees.. • 13 hours ago
I would love to see a deep dive of how (badly) they ended up at the end of 2019. For example, in 2018, emissions *rose* from all the majors in EU.
Europe car groups face huge profit hit to cut CO2
In 2019, I bet they rose again. How did this happen? Well, my understanding is they thought diesel was a sure victory. Diesel is fairly low CO2, and fairly high MPG.. problem solved. But then there was this pesky problem.. it would require users to put stinky urea into an extra tank every so often during fillups. So, that might deter customers due to the extra maintenace. The solution? Skip the urea, cheat on all the emissions tests, and dump out 40 times the legal limit of NOx all the way to the bank. And thank god, they got BUSTED. Suddenly, diesel begins to fade, each year dropping 20-30% as customers reel in disgust. Countries start taxing diesel higher, they start getting banned from inner cities.. Suddenly they're selling more gasoline ICE, and CO2 starts climbing, climbing.. What to do now? Announce all the EV plans of course! It's obviously easy, just reverse engineer a Tesla.. right? In reality, they were trying to kill Tesla through various methods, and then there would have been THE perfect excuse: "see? EVs don't work and they lose money. It's just not a viable business model. We can't lose all these jobs. Do you want us to lose jobs EU?" (*gets slap on the wrist*). But for a very rare occasion, the good guys won
All they need to do to avoid the $40B in fines is make some damn EVs... and if they don't, a huge public shaming is in order. Don't tell us it's not possible as Tesla begins building in Berlin!
Oh, and they ONLY need to bring down emissions 25-30% .. in a year, to avoid fines."
Why didn't they do this at $900 SP. Or is timing strict with rules Idk?
IMO, the biggest change in market since that price (that we know of) was the China Shutdown. Just b/c the factory is "running" doesnt mean suppliers and customers are capable yet. Towns still ghostly.
If that issue lingers, is the loan a risk hedge, or is it unrelated? In other words, can we be at least 99% sure this was for growth reasons (in a weaker than expected market maybe)?
FYI, I get why companies do a cap raise in general, been reading that recommendation here for years. But this seem like a 180 from what we heard from the EC, so is Coronavirus the stimulus here? Is that China Factory loan a new risk?
IMO, the biggest change in market since that price (that we know of) was the China Shutdown. Just b/c the factory is "running" doesnt mean suppliers and customers are capable yet. Towns still ghostly.
If that issue lingers, is the loan a risk hedge, or is it unrelated? In other words, can we be at least 99% sure this was for growth reasons (in a weaker than expected market maybe)?
FYI, I get why companies do a cap raise in general, been reading that recommendation here for years. But this seem like a 180 from what we heard from the EC, so is Coronavirus the stimulus here? Is that China Factory loan a new risk?
On the reasons for the capital raise: let's agree we don't yet have the full picture on what Tesla has on the table right now. The April company talk (and the Battery Day, if as speculated they may be two different events) will help us get a better idea on what's going on, but we still won't have extra clarity on what's happening on the FSD development front.
It's very possible that:
1. they discovered one or more small companies they're interested in acquiring, either for battery manufacturing purposes or for autonomous driving
2. they decided to make some major strategy change(s) in how the company evolves, and they need extra capital (think of the recent info on the major Autopilot rewrite, it could be something like that, or bigger); we know that a big part of what makes Tesla successful is their tendency to constantly re-evaluate their strategy and to make radical changes when those changes are justified.
We would only hear about any of these things AFTER they happened.
It's very possible that:
1. they discovered one or more small companies they're interested in acquiring, either for battery manufacturing purposes or for autonomous driving
2. they decided to make some major strategy change(s) in how the company evolves, and they need extra capital (think of the recent info on the major Autopilot rewrite, it could be something like that, or bigger); we know that a big part of what makes Tesla successful is their tendency to constantly re-evaluate their strategy and to make radical changes when those changes are justified.
We would only hear about any of these things AFTER they happened.
We were at 900 for what, a few hours?
IMO its a good move and makes a lot of sense. Yes, Elon said tat ER call they spend what they can but lets not forget at that point in time the company value was many billions lower than today.
With a much higher SP everything changes and you reconsider if its a good time to plan for the future different than before. They did exactly the same back in 2013 and it has been proven to be good for shareholder at the end too.
The dilution is meaningless and now we own a portion of that cash collected to it does not make any difference unless you sell today at a low price and buy later again in at a higher one.
I did expect at the ER them to announce more capex investments which did not happen but now the situation is financially even better which may give them the opportunity to reconsider. They produce cash and collect cash to push faster forward.
ArkInvest has a similar opinion and is more confident in their bull case now because they see the requirement to build more GF to cope with the demand. Beside Texas there are Twitter rumors about talks in Bulgaria and we know from Germany (Nordrhine Westfalia and Lower Saxony) that the leaked GF talks last year have been correct.
.#Tesla’s capital raise increases our confidence that it will gain market share in the #EV market during the next 5 years, increasing the probability that our bull case for the stock is correct.
Cathie Wood on Twitter
@ARKInvest
included $15B of equity dilution in its 5 year forecast for $TSLA, so $2 billion+ now makes sense. We wouldn’t be surprised if Elon announces plans for another #Gigafactory in China, a vote of confidence in the resilience of that country.
Cathie Wood on Twitter
With a much higher SP everything changes and you reconsider if its a good time to plan for the future different than before. They did exactly the same back in 2013 and it has been proven to be good for shareholder at the end too.
The dilution is meaningless and now we own a portion of that cash collected to it does not make any difference unless you sell today at a low price and buy later again in at a higher one.
I did expect at the ER them to announce more capex investments which did not happen but now the situation is financially even better which may give them the opportunity to reconsider. They produce cash and collect cash to push faster forward.
ArkInvest has a similar opinion and is more confident in their bull case now because they see the requirement to build more GF to cope with the demand. Beside Texas there are Twitter rumors about talks in Bulgaria and we know from Germany (Nordrhine Westfalia and Lower Saxony) that the leaked GF talks last year have been correct.
.#Tesla’s capital raise increases our confidence that it will gain market share in the #EV market during the next 5 years, increasing the probability that our bull case for the stock is correct.
Cathie Wood on Twitter
@ARKInvest
included $15B of equity dilution in its 5 year forecast for $TSLA, so $2 billion+ now makes sense. We wouldn’t be surprised if Elon announces plans for another #Gigafactory in China, a vote of confidence in the resilience of that country.
Cathie Wood on Twitter
The share price is up ~$200 from the earnings call. Tesla is very wisely capitalizing on something they couldn’t anticipate back then.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, it sounds like you read more Business Insider than Conference Call transcript: (shortened)
Dan Levy with Credit Suisse
"So given the cheaper cost of capital and this is a real competitive advantage for others, why wouldn't it make sense to raise capital to either pay down debt or to pursue acquisitions"
Elon Musk
We're not aware of anyone that we'd want to acquire.
Dan Levy
And debt pay down?
Elon Musk
Leading the company to pay down debt, doesn't sound like wise.
"So given the cheaper cost of capital and this is a real competitive advantage for others, why wouldn't it make sense to raise capital to either pay down debt or to pursue acquisitions"
Elon Musk
We're not aware of anyone that we'd want to acquire.
Dan Levy
And debt pay down?
Elon Musk
Leading the company to pay down debt, doesn't sound like wise.
So no equity raise to pay debt:
- Debt is cheap short term
- Equity is highly valuable long term.
Why would a drop to $400 be a buying opportunity, when it is higher than the local peak of $380 14 months ago?
The only way a drop to $400 is a buying opportunity is either:
1) You have cash sitting on the sidelines (Probably not wise)
2) You’re following a well defined plan to increase leverage on the way down, and decrease it on the way up. In which case $700, $600 and $500 are also buying opportunities.
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