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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,044
56,293
Tesla friendly place

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,044
56,293
Tesla friendly place
This is more of a technical flush out than news driven. Traders and shorts have been waiting for any negative news to start selling en masse. Guess we’ll see 500s/600s before swinging higher. Remember, this is one of the most traded stocks in existence

Dude, where’s my $1880?
 

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,752
5,699
Indialantic FL
Tesla are executing so well across the board that it going to become embarrassing.

One thing I thought about this morning was how EV adoption is slower than I thought it was going to be a couple of years ago. This too is playing into Tesla's hands as they have been able to absorb nearly all the increase. Had more customers placed orders for the few non-Teslas that are available then maybe the OEMs could have placed larger battery orders. Now they are playing second fiddle to Tesla on CATL and LG order books.
The OEMs will have plenty of batteries to choose from when Tesla drops them over the next 5 years. By then, CATL, Pana and LG will have significant investment tied up in making adequate 2170s. The OEMs will have to make do.

Meanwhile Tesla will be 100% in:

Cathode - entirely new (Maxwell)
Electrolyte - Hibar high speed filling
Anode - entirely new (SilLion)
Cell form factor - x3+ in size
Modules - gone
Packs - entirely new

Game Over

Check out what Mercedes are already saying:

Daimler can’t meet European CO2 targets but struggles with EV production - Electrek
OK. Now You spoke from the TSLA Podium to us Tesla Fanboys so we have to take what YOU say with a grain of salt. But I thought I'd read the comments to get a less biased perspective ( I also read Der Spiegel when I want to know what is really going on in the USA).
The very first post under this article summed up the sentiment of a large segment of Europe... this is encouraging.
"


80 degrees..
13 hours ago


I would love to see a deep dive of how (badly) they ended up at the end of 2019. For example, in 2018, emissions *rose* from all the majors in EU.
Europe car groups face huge profit hit to cut CO2

In 2019, I bet they rose again. How did this happen? Well, my understanding is they thought diesel was a sure victory. Diesel is fairly low CO2, and fairly high MPG.. problem solved. But then there was this pesky problem.. it would require users to put stinky urea into an extra tank every so often during fillups. So, that might deter customers due to the extra maintenace. The solution? Skip the urea, cheat on all the emissions tests, and dump out 40 times the legal limit of NOx all the way to the bank. And thank god, they got BUSTED. Suddenly, diesel begins to fade, each year dropping 20-30% as customers reel in disgust. Countries start taxing diesel higher, they start getting banned from inner cities.. Suddenly they're selling more gasoline ICE, and CO2 starts climbing, climbing.. What to do now? Announce all the EV plans of course! It's obviously easy, just reverse engineer a Tesla.. right? In reality, they were trying to kill Tesla through various methods, and then there would have been THE perfect excuse: "see? EVs don't work and they lose money. It's just not a viable business model. We can't lose all these jobs. Do you want us to lose jobs EU?" (*gets slap on the wrist*). But for a very rare occasion, the good guys won :D

All they need to do to avoid the $40B in fines is make some damn EVs... and if they don't, a huge public shaming is in order. Don't tell us it's not possible as Tesla begins building in Berlin!

Oh, and they ONLY need to bring down emissions 25-30% .. in a year, to avoid fines."
 

SOULPEDL

Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,108
11,903
Arizona
Why didn't they do this at $900 SP. Or is timing strict with rules Idk?

IMO, the biggest change in market since that price (that we know of) was the China Shutdown. Just b/c the factory is "running" doesnt mean suppliers and customers are capable yet. Towns still ghostly.

If that issue lingers, is the loan a risk hedge, or is it unrelated? In other words, can we be at least 99% sure this was for growth reasons (in a weaker than expected market maybe)?

FYI, I get why companies do a cap raise in general, been reading that recommendation here for years. But this seem like a 180 from what we heard from the EC, so is Coronavirus the stimulus here? Is that China Factory loan a new risk?
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Artful Dodger

Chocochip

Supporting Member
Nov 17, 2017
794
8,120
UK
On the reasons for the capital raise: let's agree we don't yet have the full picture on what Tesla has on the table right now. The April company talk (and the Battery Day, if as speculated they may be two different events) will help us get a better idea on what's going on, but we still won't have extra clarity on what's happening on the FSD development front.
It's very possible that:

1. they discovered one or more small companies they're interested in acquiring, either for battery manufacturing purposes or for autonomous driving

2. they decided to make some major strategy change(s) in how the company evolves, and they need extra capital (think of the recent info on the major Autopilot rewrite, it could be something like that, or bigger); we know that a big part of what makes Tesla successful is their tendency to constantly re-evaluate their strategy and to make radical changes when those changes are justified.

We would only hear about any of these things AFTER they happened.
 

Mkorpal

Member
Mar 17, 2016
961
2,991
Denver
Why didn't they do this at $900 SP. Or is timing strict with rules Idk?

IMO, the biggest change in market since that price (that we know of) was the China Shutdown. Just b/c the factory is "running" doesnt mean suppliers and customers are capable yet. Towns still ghostly.

If that issue lingers, is the loan a risk hedge, or is it unrelated? In other words, can we be at least 99% sure this was for growth reasons (in a weaker than expected market maybe)?

FYI, I get why companies do a cap raise in general, been reading that recommendation here for years. But this seem like a 180 from what we heard from the EC, so is Coronavirus the stimulus here? Is that China Factory loan a new risk?

We were at 900 for what, a few hours?
 

avoigt

Active Member
Sep 5, 2017
2,808
38,456
Germany
IMO its a good move and makes a lot of sense. Yes, Elon said tat ER call they spend what they can but lets not forget at that point in time the company value was many billions lower than today.

With a much higher SP everything changes and you reconsider if its a good time to plan for the future different than before. They did exactly the same back in 2013 and it has been proven to be good for shareholder at the end too.

The dilution is meaningless and now we own a portion of that cash collected to it does not make any difference unless you sell today at a low price and buy later again in at a higher one.

I did expect at the ER them to announce more capex investments which did not happen but now the situation is financially even better which may give them the opportunity to reconsider. They produce cash and collect cash to push faster forward.

ArkInvest has a similar opinion and is more confident in their bull case now because they see the requirement to build more GF to cope with the demand. Beside Texas there are Twitter rumors about talks in Bulgaria and we know from Germany (Nordrhine Westfalia and Lower Saxony) that the leaked GF talks last year have been correct.

.#Tesla’s capital raise increases our confidence that it will gain market share in the #EV market during the next 5 years, increasing the probability that our bull case for the stock is correct.

Cathie Wood on Twitter

@ARKInvest
included $15B of equity dilution in its 5 year forecast for $TSLA, so $2 billion+ now makes sense. We wouldn’t be surprised if Elon announces plans for another #Gigafactory in China, a vote of confidence in the resilience of that country.

Cathie Wood on Twitter
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,958
112,658
Canada
Perhaps more of a dip due to elon credibility than the actual cash raise. He spent a good 5 minutes talking about not raising cash and even got irritated at the analysis for suggesting the idea.
Lol, it sounds like you read more Business Insider than Conference Call transcript: (shortened)

Dan Levy with Credit Suisse

"So given the cheaper cost of capital and this is a real competitive advantage for others, why wouldn't it make sense to raise capital to either pay down debt or to pursue acquisitions"

Elon Musk


We're not aware of anyone that we'd want to acquire.

Dan Levy

And debt pay down?

Elon Musk

Leading the company to pay down debt, doesn't sound like wise.​

So no equity raise to pay debt:
  • Debt is cheap short term
  • Equity is highly valuable long term.
Cheers!
 

kbM3

Active Member
May 22, 2017
1,893
9,769
Orlando
For those of us who held from 380 to 178 and where we are today, a drop to 400 would be a buying opportunity.

Why would a drop to $400 be a buying opportunity, when it is higher than the local peak of $380 14 months ago?

The only way a drop to $400 is a buying opportunity is either:
1) You have cash sitting on the sidelines (Probably not wise)
2) You’re following a well defined plan to increase leverage on the way down, and decrease it on the way up. In which case $700, $600 and $500 are also buying opportunities.
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: Artful Dodger

traxila

Supporting Member
Nov 25, 2012
1,798
10,160
NYC
Let's be honest, we can't say Elon telling the analysis who suggested raising cash to piss off brilliant and then calling this cash raise brilliant. People here need to pick one and stick to it.

Can’t speak for everyone. I know what I said. Didn’t know I represented the board.
 

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