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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,069
56,621
Tesla friendly place
Exactly someone said: "Elon is Elon". Can't trust everything he says. That's what the bears been talking about. Now he just confirm it. Very disappointed. In one hand, "We don't need to raise cash", and then issue more shares.

Seriously?

Let me spell it out; Tesla changes direction faster than lightening strikes. Doesn’t matter what was said yesterday, if Tesla sees a new/better/quicker path, they take it. Tesla is ALWAYS looking for a new/better/faster path.

Something has changed. Now they want extra cash on hand. So be it. Drive on, Tesla.

If you’d be more comfortable with a slower paced company, pick any traditional OEM to invest in. Some are moving slow enough that it looks like they’re going backwards.
 

mrdoubleb

Supporting Member
Jul 2, 2013
2,566
13,763
Budapest, Hungary
GF4 tree felling probably delayed by a week:

Tesla-Grundstück in Brandenburg: Gutachten zum Kaufpreis lässt auf sich warten - Berlin - Tagesspiegel

"Das Gutachten zum Grundstückswert des künftigen Tesla-Geländes in Grünheide bei Berlin kommt wohl erst kommende Woche. Das erklärte am Donnerstag Umweltminister Axel Vogel (Bündnis 90/Grüne) im Haushaltsausschuss des Landtags. Ursprünglich wollten die Parlamentarier über das unabhängige Gutachten beraten. Erst nach Unterzeichnung des Kaufvertrags am 16. Januar konnte ein vereidigter Gutachter beauftragt werden, berichtete Vogel. „Wir hätten uns gewünscht, dass das Gutachten früher vorliegt.“"
Translation:

The appraisal of the property value of the future Tesla site in Grünheide near Berlin will probably only come next week. That said on Thursday Environment Minister Axel Vogel (Alliance 90 / Greens) in the budget committee of the state parliament. The parliamentarians originally wanted to advise on the independent report. Only after the purchase contract was signed on January 16, a sworn expert could be commissioned, Vogel reported. "We would have liked the report to be available earlier."​

While this is a formality - I'd expect Tesla to pay EUR 50m too if that's the fair price - but Tesla owns the area only once they have paid the price, and there's a deadline when trees can be cut down, and if that is missed then GF4 would face a 6 months delay.
@avoigt may have the specifics on this, but I believe German law allows starting the tree harvesting even before the final sale is done and they are planning to do just that. Of course Tesla could risk having to reimburse if the deal falls through, but on the other hand they have to finish by early March due to the birds and the bees and all.
 

FrankSG

Active Member
Jun 27, 2019
1,608
21,267
Singapore
I'm baffled by the equity raise. Given all the information I have available to me, I don't see why they'd want to dilute for some extra cash. They've said they're spending cash as fast as they efficiently can, and their cash flows will be even stronger a few quarters from now after MY and Giga Shanghai are in full swing.

Elon and Zachary aren't stupid though, so there must be a good reason for the raise that is neither disclosed in the announcement, nor any of us are aware of at this moment. If I were to speculate, I'd say it must be for either an acquisition (company or Panasonic battery lines in Giga Nevada), or a new factory/production capacity most likely for battery cells.

Hopefully we'll find out more in April. If nothing happens in the next 12 months that makes it clear why they raised this $2B in equity, I'd be quite disappointed. I just don't see why they need extra money just to strengthen their balance sheet. Tesla used to sit on $2-3B just twelve months ago, which admittedly was on the low side, but $6B in cash with much more cash flow to come in the coming quarters, seems like plenty to me.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,830
Iceland
@GF4Tesla..️️.build #GigaBerlin. on Twitter

upload_2020-2-13_14-57-16.png
 

Kuhz

Active Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,901
2,069
Mars
Now the question is whether the SP will follow what happened the last few days. A surge in the first hour and then a decline.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,830
Iceland
I picked up more in premarket at $728.80 and $726, respectively. No brainer.

I do this sort of trading in options, and it just shot up way too fast this morning :( Found myself chasing a rocket up.

Now, if it goes higher, I could get to the point of re-selling previously bought-back options. But as things stand, it doesn't seem to want to do that either :Þ
 

Bobfitz1

Active Member
Sep 24, 2012
1,176
3,630
Ludlow, Vt
Yep, the purpose is rather opaque:

"Tesla intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to further strengthen its balance sheet, as well as for general corporate purposes."​

But I suspect we will learn more at Battery Day at Giga New York ...

Has Tesla announced that Aprils "Company Talk" at GF2 Buffalo will also include topics they have been saying would be covered at Battery Day? Or is that just what people are assuming from a recent statement that Battery Day would be sometime in April?

Sorry if this has been covered and I missed the memo!
 

Remus

Active Member
Apr 14, 2016
1,381
6,326
California
It's great that shorts are directly funding Tesla not just the share holders.

Elon learning some political correct answers to questions during ER would be a cherry on top
 

keydiver

Supporting Member
Jul 31, 2015
422
3,402
Hobe Sound, FL
Did anyone read about the subpoena from the SEC? I don’t want to give any of those articles any clicks....

Barron's:
On December 4, 2019....issued a subpoena seeking information concerning certain financial data and contracts including Tesla’s regular financing arrangements,” reads the company’s annual report, filed on a form 10k.

I think they are trying to tie it to Tesla's reduced set-aside for warranties perhaps, because later they say:

Warranties at Tesla have generated controversy in the past.The 2019 warranty expense was $555 million, up from $544 in 2018. The 2019 figure is about 1.7% of 2019 sales, down from 2.2% of sales in 2018. The decrease is noteworthy, but it is hard to know all the inputs that go into calculating a warranty expense. No car company provides enough transparency to assess it in detail.

I'm sure the shorts have sent dozens of complaints to the SEC about the warranty expenses, so this is almost to be expected by the Shortsellers Enrichment Commission.
 

Highway2Heel

Member
Sep 29, 2018
333
2,846
Nashville, Tennessee
I do this sort of trading in options, and it just shot up way too fast this morning :( Found myself chasing a rocket up.

Now, if it goes higher, I could get to the point of re-selling previously bought-back options. But as things stand, it doesn't seem to want to do that either :Þ

I set my buys at $726 and $730...which shows you how fast it was moving. Didn’t check the order book, I just frantically (and quickly) set some limit buys on my phone when I saw the nonsensical premarket trend.
 

mad474

Member
Feb 8, 2019
103
789
Stuttgart
Side note: If you visit the website of the German BAFA because of "Umweltbonus" (Environmental Bonus For Electric Vehicles), you get the following information:

Note
The Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, Peter Altmaier, issued a press release on February 11, 2020 on the new version of the directive on the promotion of electromobility. BAFA will shortly provide you with a new, much more convenient application procedure ...

Maybe they'll host a Model 3 "Buy" button ;)

BAFA - Elektromobilität
 
Last edited:

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
1,765
5,767
Indialantic FL
"we expect to recognize $751 million of (deferred) revenue in the next 12 months."
And there it is!
Before I boast, remember this is a total newbie expressing his understanding of what Tesla would do so to meet the requirements to make it into the S&P 500.
It was my understanding that certain requirements had to be met to be included in the S&P 500, and the only one remaining for TSLA was to be profitable this quarter. I thought "Cashing-in" the Chrysler/Fiat credits would be the move IF it were possible... and here it is...i think?
 

lascavarian

Active Member
Jul 27, 2017
1,145
5,871
usa
If nothing happens in the next 12 months that makes it clear why they raised this $2B in equity, I'd be quite disappointed. I just don't see why they need extra money just to strengthen their balance sheet. Tesla used to sit on $2-3B just twelve months ago, which admittedly was on the low side, but $6B in cash with much more cash flow to come in the coming quarters, seems like plenty to me.

I am just wondering if StarLink might play into this in some way. Seems like a high speed global data path might be useful for automation and the Tesla Network. As a part owner, Tesla may be able to have something special available for their autonomous fleet. Just a musing.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,116
Vienna
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives likes the capital raise:

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives weighed in on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), calling the stock offering a "smart and strategic move."

"Earlier this morning it was announced that TSLA will be offering 2.65 million shares to raise ~$2 billion to support its balance sheet as the company continues its impressive build out of Giga 3 in Shanghai and many more endeavors in the pipeline. We note that Musk plans to participate in the offering up to $10 million and Board member Larry Ellison will purchase up to $1 million of stock."

"This will be a bit of a shock to some given the company talked about no need to raise capital on its recent conference call, although the bulls (which we agree with) will say this essentially rips the bandaid off and takes the doomsday cash crunch scenario some predicted down the road now off the table."

"In our opinion the size of this offering is larger than many had anticipated, but we believe it’s a smart move by Musk and the Board to take advantage of being back in a position of strength with the Street and focus on raising capital at a time when EV demand is just starting to inflect with China the main fuel in the growth engine."

"To this point, given CapEx with Giga 3, Europe, and autonomous we ultimately believe this morning is a potential "game changer" move putting Fremont in a much stronger capital position over the coming years with competition increasing from all angles on EV and the pressure on new models/production/global factories. In a nutshell, the Tesla story changes today (for the positive) with this capital raise in our opinion."​

I particularly liked his "EV demand is just starting to inflect with China the main fuel in the growth engine" rocket engine analogy, although I think in the next 10 years analysts will eventually have to come up with new analogies that kids who never saw a gas engine would understand too.
 

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