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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

SOULPEDL

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 25, 2016
5,124
23,471
Arizona
Agreed.
Myself, I just play the naive one to keep under the radar. It buys me licence to be off script with ideas. But that could be just the Canadian way of communication :)
OT... I just realized that my Canadian origins aren't posted on my profile, so maybe why this humor went flat.

Ya, born Ontario, but mostly from the Shuswap Lakes of BC. So Kelowna BC keeps looking better for the summers these past few weeks, as a $ Dual $.

Fun fact, when I say I'm from Canada, everyone either says "Oh, Canada is awesome, and the people are so nice!" if they've been there, or "Oh, Canada, I want to go someday." Not making this up... everyone, and ever since I moved to the US. And if you came from anywhere near Canada (like Fargo), I heard about that as if you were claiming that some Canadian goodness rubbed off on you too. (Some even tried to talk like us, lol).

Then there's the Icelanders here. OMG, Karen is SO COOL. And all those Scandinavians way ahead of the rest of the world on BEV transition. Therefor, I think this is a cold thing (which means there's hope for the Russians too). Afterall, when it's cold you have to huddle or cuddle. Furthermore, if you can't fix a car, you could freeze to death - hence cold weather produces those MacGyver types via natural selection... IMHO.

So here's to all the more northern people on this forum, eh.
(Clink!)
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Moderator
Mar 24, 2011
7,279
31,556
San Diego, CA
Huh? I was saying "I want the price to drop"? I remember on multiple times telling people who were freaking out over every little drop that they're not a big deal and that we're consolidating, but I'm not one of the people who missed out on the runup and wanted to see $400 again to get back in. Nor am I one of the Q1 pessimists. Half of my Tesla holdings are options (used to be a much higher %, but I lowered the % the higher we got).

But while we're no longer pushing new daily highs, I'm glad to play the daily volatility, since all my options are long-term :) (Mar '21)
My apologies, my flaky memory is more flaky than I thought.
 
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bobinfla

S-Vin 4086 Rdstr-Vin 0019
Supporting Member
Jul 9, 2012
364
1,593
Land O'Lakes
It can't be a coincidence that the recall was officially announced the day before the cap raise. This cap raise has completely pushed the recall news out of the cycle.

Not sure the recall should be claimed as the day before the cap raise. I received my recall email letter from Tesla back on Feb 6th, and although I like to think Tesla considers me really special, in reality that's probably not the case, so I assume that 15,000 other people got it at the same time. So 8 days before the cap raise. Not a secret if 15,000 people are in on it.
 
Hey all, don't forget market is closed Monday, so today and tomorrow are the last days to take / close out positions before a long weekend.

As a side note, I set an $810 covered call order at about 10:30, thinking I could move it up if needed. Then had several unexpected work calls. Needless to say, I left a LOT of money on the table on that fill. So if we could stay under $810 for close tomorrow, that would make my life a lot simpler...
 
T Rowe Price increases holdings from 830,000 to 8,977,000 shares in latest filing

This is a really stupid question, but could an institution like TRowe buy a bunch of shares at current prices and then later distribute those shares to their S&P500 index fund if SP inclusion were to happen sometime this year? And thereby avoid having to buy a bunch of shares during a mad scramble by other market players?
 
Is this really by more than a factor of 10 or did you mistype? Can you link a source? Thanks.
Screen Shot 2020-02-13 at 3.16.52 PM.png

Filing before this one was for 830k shares
 
The nyu prof on CNBC is a prime example of the need of a paradigm shift in how to see Tesla. He says to justify the valuation, Tesla needs to have revenues like Toyota and margins like Apple, otherwise stock not justified at current levels.

Okay, auto revenues in 10 years. What is the market for electric cars globally? What is Tesla market share of that? Much higher then Toyota just on sales alone. We haven't even touched the energy side, which is something not many can really model out because most have no clue about how to see how the energy side works. *Tesla itself* is at the forefront of knowing the valuation since they are by far the furthest advanced company on this front globally. The ability to scale and set the prices for that energy product and services. These revenues, as Elon has stated many times over the years, may exceed auto revenue. So, Tesla in 10 years must be analyzed from not only auto sales, but energy product sales as well and nothing we've heard from anyone on any sort of detailed sensitivity analysis on this has been done.

Margins? I think margins on autos and energy product sales will be secondary to the margins created by *services* from those autos and energy products.

Margins on Robotaxi and Energy(kWh) services will be substantial. Energy (kwh) services/sales globally, to me, will be far greater than Robotaxi in the long run. However, there seems to be only a few analysts that even try to figure out Robotaxi revenues and margins. Haven't seen anything on the energy side. Energy side is the "forecast" that is potentially the biggest impact long term, but not a peep.

Again, I have to say, this is where the legacy analysts will be separated from the next generation ones. Legacy is baffled and can't make anything stick because less and less people are listening and more and more are figuring it out on their own. They are investing now and holding for the long term gains on auto and energy. 900 now to see 5000-15000+ later on in the decade and beyond is a good investment to them. It's not 900 is way too much for auto revenues to hit 300bln ten years from now, but global market for auto and energy products plus services in both at the growth rate it has demonstrated provides for massive returns in 5 years and for a very long time after that. It is about trading mentality versus investment mentality.

This really is not an investment exercise in comparing Apple and Toyota, but one in seeing the future of transportation and energy disrupting and changing how transportation and energy operate today. It will look drastically different then how transportation and energy look right now. You either model it on what it looked like 5 years ago, or you model off what it will look like 5-10 years and many decades beyond.

What we are witnessing is the deer-in-head-lights from those that can't fathom the world is moving on beyond their ability to see the future. This is why less people are listening to them, they are losing influence on the broader financial news audience, and they will soon be overtaken and left behind when the next generation builds the "critical mass" global audience that will drain away the remaining ad dollars that has them just able to operate a network today.
 
Last edited:

lklundin

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,982
20,637
Bavaria
It's okay, this just accelerates the timeline on everything, including share buybacks in the future ;) works for me, I don't feel diluted at all!

If (almost) all shares are equally diluted, then it just means that there are a few more shares representing an equally more valuable company.
 
The nyu prof on CNBC is a prime example of the need of a paradigm shift in how to see Tesla. He says to justify the valuation, Tesla needs to have revenues like Toyota and margins like Apple, otherwise stock not justified at current levels.

Okay, auto revenues in 10 years. What is the market for electric cars globally? What is Tesla market share of that? Much higher then Toyota just on sales alone. We haven't even touched the energy side, which is something not many can really model out because most have no clue about how to see how the energy side works. *Tesla itself* is at the forefront of knowing the valuation since they are by far the furthest advanced company on this front globally. The ability to scale and set the prices for that energy product and services. These revenues, as Elon has stated many times over the years, may exceed auto revenue. So, Tesla in 10 years must be analyzed from not only auto sales, but energy product sales as well and nothing we've heard from anyone on any sort of detailed sensitivity analysis on this has been done.

Margins? I think margins on autos and energy product sales will be secondary to the margins created by *services* from those autos and energy products.

Margins on Robotaxi and Energy(kWh) services will be substantial. Energy (kwh) services/sales globally, to me, will be far greater than Robotaxi in the long run. However, there seems to be only a few analysts that even try to figure out Robotaxi revenues and margins. Haven't seen anything on the energy side. Energy side is the "forecast" that is potentially the biggest impact long term, but not a peep.

Again, I have to say, this is where the legacy analysts will be separated from the next generation ones. Legacy is baffled and can't make anything stick because less and less people are listening and more and more are figuring it out on their own. They are investing now and holding for the long term gains on auto and energy. 900 now to see 5000-15000+ later on in the decade and beyond is a good investment to them. It's not 900 is way too much for auto revenues to hit 300bln ten years from now, but global market for auto and energy products plus services in both at the growth rate it has demonstrated provides for massive returns in 5 years and for a very long time after that. It is about trading mentality versus investment mentality.

This really is not an investment exercise in comparing Apple and Toyota, but one in seeing the future of transportation and energy disrupting and changing how transportation and energy operate today. It will look drastically different then how transportation and energy look right now. You either model it on what it looked like 5 years ago, or you model off what it will look like 5-10 years and many decades beyond.

What we are witnessing is the dear-in-head-lights from those that can't fathom the world is moving on beyond their ability to see the future. This is why less people are listening to them, they are losing influence on the broader financial news audience, and they will soon be overtaken and left behind when the next generation builds the "critical mass" global audience that will drain away the remaining ad dollars that has them just able to operate a network today.


Doesnt Apple have revenue like Toyota, and profit like Apple? Its market cap is 1.3 Trillion.
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
7,522
111,508
USA
If (almost) all shares are equally diluted, then it just means that there are a few more shares representing an equally more valuable company.

Indeed, in other words the fresh cash (or whatever it buys) belongs to all shareholders. After the follow-on offering, each shareholder owns a lesser fraction of a bigger pie. That would simply be break-even, except for the potential value enhancements from the usage of the new money. Dilution is often described disparagingly, when it shouldn't be. :cool:
 

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