Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

Etrade app is acting SUPER glitchy for me, anybody else?

Yeah, it shows AH TSLA gains in red for some reason.

 

[lklundin]

For options expiring this Friday Max Pain is currently 740$, 34$ below today's close. I will not be trading, but could well imagine that on Friday we end up closer to Max Pain than we are now.

Next week may see another attempt to drive down the SP, since Max Pain is at only 595$ - I guess this reflects the low expectations of the SP when these contracts were sold. Also, there is almost 69k put contracts at 100$, with 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest put contract strike prices also below 200$, so major losses expected for Tesla-anti investors.

Based on Max Pain of next week, I would expect end of next week to be more likely to offer a dip than this week.

Since Feb. 11 Max Pain for tomorrow has gone up from 595$ to now 800$,
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Buckminster]

Dave talks here (right at the end) about the importance of being a lonely investor - doing your own homework. His final parting shot however is that maybe investors can work together and do well - TMC being the model he has in mind presumably.

I completely agree. Coming from an Engineering background, I knew Tesla would succeed. I trust my judgement in others (TMC experts) and that has given me the confidence to be all in on TSLA high risk strategies. Pre TMC I was probably only 20% TSLA (some would say a balanced portfolio... AMZN, AAPL, ILMN etc.)

I hope this group stays together here or somewhere else in the future. I won't have the same instinct about buying BYND etc. in the future but I trust Factchecking etc. enough to risk 10% of my portfolio. I will do my own napkin maths and a bit of research but I know my limitations.

That's right - I intend to hone my instinct and laziness.

 

[Aeon]

Since Feb. 11 Max Pain for tomorrow has gone up from 595$ to now 800$,
Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

Sounds like it might close in on the stock a bit more till tomorrow and MMs could reach a comfortable level with medium delta hedging and a bit of naked shorting.
So the typical "buy options with a slight IV discount on friday before close and expect a bit of buyers exuberance next week" might just as well work again.

 

[KarenRei]

Since it’s AH, how comfortable are people with submitting trades on their phones? I see lots of screenshots of apps, but can’t quite bring myself to submit thousands of dollars of trades on my phone over a WiFi connection.

It's encrypted. Doesn't matter whether it's over wifi or not. Someone stealing or compromising your phone is the greater concern. But the same applies to your desktop.

'Magic crystals' to enable the future of electric cars

Very interesting tech...

"Enabling the future of electric cars" is overstating the case, but I certainly hope they prove economical, as they have the potential for lithium recovery from much lower concentration resources... including seawater. Which is currently much more expensive than land-based resources.

For now, I'm betting on lithium clays being the "next big thing". Although even that requires sufficient price support.

 

[KarenRei]

On a more personal note - Lagarfoss, an 875 TEU container ship reportedly full of Teslas, is now arriving at Immingham:

Should find out fairly soon whether it's headed to Iceland next (possibly via the Faroes)

 

[heltok]

He thinks ~385Wh/kg will be announced at Battery Day.

 

[lklundin]

Darn, that confession is going to haunt me forever...

Right_Said_Fred: "I'm like Elon Musk, I quickly see and revert my mistakes".

 

[JBRR]

Simon Moores on Twitter

 

[elasalle]

AI is always alert. That's one of the biggest benefits.

Muscle memory, doesn't mean you are not alert. While we drive a well driven path by memory, subconsciously, instinct or intitution - we would still be aware of whats happening in real time.

AI is always alert, but does it have to always have to process the whole dataset or in AI terms always use a NN that is set up for all use cases and scenarios?

 

[elasalle]

I was pissed with all these options that recently opened above 1200$ thinking that it gave MM the ability to sell calls and make up for any existing losses and use their stock which they acquired by closing their short positions.

But with delta hedging, is it now like the "tail wagging the dog"? The more options get bought, the more MM buy stocks If so I think we need to continue buying based on @anthonyj's recommended strikes

 

[Huskyf]

What a disastrous start pre-market -2% more than 22$ lost ???

 

[Lycanthrope]

last time I sold some at 925 and bought back at 760. I am not sure what to do this time. I got burn on my first calls ever last week so I am looking for some redemption.

Yeah, I did the same. The rise on Monday was totally according to plan, the rise yesterday caught everyone by surprise.

Will depend what the MM's decide to to now. As the shares are now sold and Stan Laurel, sorry, Morgan, has pumped the stock for a quick profit, they might dump some of that stock.

Depending on the movements I might buy back the $875 call, looking at Max Pain I think MM's might pin it to $900, then I'd probably rather keep hold of my shares. For the ones I sold, I will sell a put until they get rebought - want ti be in equity for the end of quarter as I'm expecting result to be decent. Or maybe 100 shares and a couple of LEAPS. Don't know!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yes the brokerages got there options and are going to sell those shares and stop supporting the price of tsla. This will create downward pressure today. Totally predictable. However there are now competing forces such as margin calls and that the higher volumes in tsla these days will mitigate somewhat. But all this was predictable. History repeats itself

see post 140010 in this thread on last tuesday

 

[Lycanthrope]

TSLA is getting so interesting, to the point another holding of mine was up 25% in 2 weeks and I hardly noticed.
I guess that shows how diversified my account is.

Correction: just double checked it was up ~50% in 20 days, still, didn’t notice.

 

[davepsilon]

How old are you? Note that you need to be 59 1/2 yrs old or older to be able to pull out of your roth without having to pay taxes.

EDIT: There is a stipulation that if the money is used for college education or for your first house, you can pull out of your roth without any tax implications. Hmmm you stated you plan on living out of your cybertruck.. not sure if that qualifies but if it does, please let us know; that would be pretty cool!

So assuming one is younger than 59.5 if the money in a Roth IRA is used for college education it can be withdrawn penalty free but not tax free, still have to pay taxes on the gains. Similarly for a house if you haven’t owned one in a few years and have had a Roth IRA longer than five years one can withdraw $10k penalty free but must pay taxes on the gains. One can always withdraw the original contributions to a Roth penalty and tax free - they were made with post tax money though so no tax advantages there.

 

[uselesslogin]

Dave talks here (right at the end) about the importance of being a lonely investor - doing your own homework. His final parting shot however is that maybe investors can work together and do well - TMC being the model he has in mind presumably.

I completely agree. Coming from an Engineering background, I knew Tesla would succeed. I trust my judgement in others (TMC experts) and that has given me the confidence to be all in on TSLA high risk strategies. Pre TMC I was probably only 20% TSLA (some would say a balanced portfolio... AMZN, AAPL, ILMN etc.)

I hope this group stays together here or somewhere else in the future. I won't have the same instinct about buying BYND etc. in the future but I trust Factchecking etc. enough to risk 10% of my portfolio. I will do my own napkin maths and a bit of research but I know my limitations.

I once put a full 25% of my portfolio into GTAT stock that was introduced to me by a forum member here. I went right past all the red flags and held it straight into bankruptcy. The biggest thing that kept me hanging on is knowing that the particular forum member was more or less all in. And his confidence was complete. There were a few others who are probably still here that did the same as me with different percentages. I felt worse because I started recommending GTAT around the office, thankfully with enough caveats that others didn’t buy in any significant way.

That member had no ill intentions. He seems to have lost the majority of his investment accounts at the time and presumably had some difficult life adjustments to face.

I think of myself as more intelligent than most people and also people tell me I’m more intelligent than most people. Yet here I went charging into GTAT like it was a sure thing. I emotionally discounted every red flag. You live, you learn, but I just wanted to share this as a cautionary tale. Also, this isn’t an argument against owning stocks recommended by forum members, just be careful of those emotions and try to examine every red flag.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Since it’s AH, how comfortable are people with submitting trades on their phones? I see lots of screenshots of apps, but can’t quite bring myself to submit thousands of dollars of trades on my phone over a WiFi connection.

What are "phones"?

 

[ammulder]

Keep in mind HW3 and a lot of other hardware components and still made in the US, especially a lot of the hardware that is the brains of the car that other companies will find hard to replicate..

[...]

IMO Tesla will keep the latest and most hi-tech components in house and made in the US.....

I thought TSMC fabricated the HW3 chip... though I'm not exactly sure where I got that from. In any case, I don't think it's made in the USA -- at one point there was a fuss over whether they could get a tariff exception for it and the exception wasn't granted.

Edit: sounds like I may have just made this up, sorry.

 

[davepsilon]

Yeah, and the other thing to keep in mind is that if you did it in a taxable account that means you might no longer qualify for a Roth IRA contribution for 2020.

Yes, but you could still do a backdoor contribution. US tax law on Roth is so silly. Income above $X then you can’t contribute to a Roth. But you can shove $6k of after tax money into a traditional IRA and fill out one form and covert that to a Roth.