Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliffski]

Just bought another 100 shares in my trading (CFD) account. I think I'll likely hold all these till battery day at least.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now what’s the difference between the volume and traded metrics?

'Volume' is the number of shares changed hands; 'Traded' is the number of dollars changed hands.

 

[Pezpunk]

Well stated. I did the same, luckily only with about 10% of my portfolio but it could have been more.

I think it's worth appreciating how rare a truly great stock is. I think the GTAT hype around here grew from a relative "boring" period after Tesla jumped from the 30's to 200's in 2013. Many of us wanted that excitement of a breakout stock again but didn't want to wait patiently on another story where we actually had a collective information edge over the market. So we manufactured hype around GTAT, claiming it was the next TSLA, but in hindsight there were absolutely no similarities between the two and GTAT had about as much proven tech as Faraday Future.

In the end it was a good lesson for me. And in the grand scheme of things it turned out to be pretty cheap.

Thank you for this post! After doing so well personally on this stock, I already find myself on the prowl for the next Tesla-style investment, even though Tesla stock is not at all in a "boring" period yet. I need to remember how rare this opportunity is/was, and to not try to fit other stocks into this paradigm unless they truly fit.

Heck, it's possible I won't recognize another $TSLA in my life. But either way, I very much hope the lesson you learned is one I can glean without having to experience it first-hand.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Where is everyone? Waiting to cross into green pastures?

You know, this ISN'T supposed to be a chat group, as the mods occasionally remind us. If you have something useful to say, say it, but this isn't the place for chit chattering along.

BTW, for those who are advocating 100% investment in Tesla, and no diversification ... as I pointed out in a recent post, Tesla isn't even in my top three current best gains. It takes a while to find other good growth stocks, like maybe you can find one every six months, but it is worthwhile to scout those out. As far as Tesla goes, Elon could have a heart attack. Unlikely, but I've been burned in the past with "can't lose" investments. The problem with unlikely and unexpected events is that no one expects them...

 

[Causalien]

Waiting for options to update - I don't know if it's just me, but nothing moves with those until 15 minutes after the bell.

I guess it's 15 min delay, even though the SP is real-time...?

You are probably not looking at real time data. Some brokers need to enable it. Some internet sites delay it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Labour is not the issue for me; people will move to work for Tesla if they start hiring and build housing. For me is... that building is a warehouse. Looks like a warehouse. Is called a warehouse on the document. No visible pollution controls for a paint shop. No heavy foundations for a press line. I can't see how that'd be a factory.

Could be a warehouse rented or owned by Tesla, and even one intended to support Semi production. But as far as I can tell, it's just a warehouse. Not a factory.

I agree. Where are the "factory" workers supposed to park? Take a look at the huge parking lot for a real factory like the Gigafactory and then look at this building which has spaces for tractor trailers and that's about it.

 

[scaesare]

As others have already pointed out, what about humans? Pranksters have altered and moved signs before and it will fool a certain fraction of the population, and a certain other fraction will use it as an excuse to do the wrong thing.

 

[Nocturnal]

Sounds like a bad deal. Elon said a ticket to Mars will be the price of a house. So, comparable.

To be fair the Virgin ticket won't be one way.

 

[davepsilon]

Not necessarily. If you have money in a traditional, non-Roth, IRA then you could end up paying tax on most of the conversion. (Essentially double taxed.) For example $6,000 after-tax contribution to your traditional IRA that has a balance of $60k that than you then back-door to a Roth you would pay tax on $5,400 of that conversion.

This is true, but not the backdoor tactic. the “backdoor” conversion is about putting the money in and converting it before you have any gains. One person can open multiple traditional IRA accounts so you can have an empty one for the backdoor conversion that has no gains. Only makes sense with income over the Roth contribution threshold which incidentally also means income is too high to deduct traditional IRA contributions so it’s post tax money in the IRA and no more tax is paid on conversion.

 

[Davmal]

I recall a post from Fact Checking a couple of weeks ago speculating that a Moody's upgrade could happen around a week after the 10-k comes out. Well that happens to be today and since the 10-k came out Tesla has added another $2.3 billion to the balance sheet. So get the finger out Moody's because I want to buy a Tsla share at $1000!

 

[JusRelax]

Labour is not the issue for me; people will move to work for Tesla if they start hiring and build housing. For me is... that building is a warehouse. Looks like a warehouse. Is called a warehouse on the document. No visible pollution controls for a paint shop. No heavy foundations for a press line. I can't see how that'd be a factory.

CyberSemi?

/s

 

[uselesslogin]

For my own education purposes. I am interested in knowing if anyone on this forum physically met the member?

Another is, is it true that he solicited ppl to invest?

Cause those are redflags for me. Someone not physically verified to be real and u solicited investment in a stock.

I usually guard what I invest in like a secret and only really divulge the stock if it already succeeded.

It is an interesting question because from historical price data you can see the price tanked the day they contacted their bankruptcy lawyer so there were obviously a good number of people that knew the bankruptcy was happening and would have wanted to pump the stock to retail investors so they could dump it. That being said he shared a ton of personal details and I easily figured out what Austin neighborhood he lived in. (I was also living in Austin at the time in a nearby neighborhood.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the real progress in all this SP action: The Upper-BB moved from $944.11 at the Open yesterday to $965.36 at today's Open.

That's an increase of $21.25 in a single day (2.25%). BB's are one way the Market determines the trading range for a particular equity, and as we saw on Feb 4 often reacts with furious shorting when the SP gets too far outside these bounds.

Right now, we are a comfortable $60 below the Upper-BB, so no 'candy' dangling out for dem Shortzes.

MMs / MaxPain: guess we'll see huh? Just 4.2.M shares traded in the 1st hour today, so relatively low volume which often makes the SP easier to manipulate. But then Options expiry is tomorrow, not today. Who knows, maybe the German Courts will get the 'pine cone' out of their Shortzes...

Cheers!

 

[dgodfrey]

Question for the raging bulls with a hold 'em till the wheels fall off strategy.
Would you or do you ever put your shares at risk with selling covered calls? The recent gouging on buying calls has me thinking about selling short term, low probability calls. The way I understand them, at worst, I am forced to sell my 100 shares at the strike price and keep the fee. At best, I still keep the fee and my shares.
The example I'll use here is 3/20/20, $1,200 strike pays $1,600. Would it really be so bad if I sold 100 shares at $1,200 a month from now knowing what I do today.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just got back from dropping my 3 off to the shiny new service center here in KC, conveniently located off the highway and very close to all the BMW, Audi, and Mercedes dealerships. That's convenient because when they fold Tesla will be able to pick up some cheap real estate. FSD 3.0 computer being installed. Inventory of Model S cars seem to be reasonable but they have very few 3s. He said they hope to get some Ys in "soon". They don't know when battery day is either. Currently roughing it in a non P model S loaner.

FWIW my local SC has been amazing. Now, time to figure out how I can make some cash on options at this price level.

 

[Fact Checking]

To be fair the Virgin ticket won't be one way.

The SpaceX Mars ticket is two-way too: the ticket price includes the option to travel back to Earth.

 

[ZeApelido]

He thinks ~385Wh/kg will be announced at Battery Day.

This may sound obvious, but if true I cannot imagine this is priced into the stock yet.

Unless one argues all the post Q4 appreciation is attributed to this.

 

[StealthP3D]

etrade had that right anyway. now MS will have it.

but only with shares bought using the brokers extended margin

any shares you own paid for by your cash,
are not to be touched by broker. unless you opt in to a fully paid lending program (if they have one).

It's my understanding that if you have any options or short sales in your account that the entire account becomes collateral, even if you have a positive cash balance. That means your broker can loan out your shares. This could vary depending upon the specific agreements with different accounts and different brokerages, but I believe it holds true extensively, across the board. It's the norm.

If you don't want TSLA shares held in your account to be loaned to shorts without you knowing, it's a good idea to put them under a limit-sell order at a high price (mine is currently at $2200) to prevent your broker from loaning them out for short selling purposes.

 

[Lycanthrope]

How are they "dicking" it? Don't have WSJ.

I was implying that the moment MS get involved with E-Trade that the application starts glitching. Just humour.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Question for the raging bulls with a hold 'em till the wheels fall off strategy.
Would you or do you ever put your shares at risk with selling covered calls? The recent gouging on buying calls has me thinking about selling short term, low probability calls. The way I understand them, at worst, I am forced to sell my 100 shares at the strike price and keep the fee. At best, I still keep the fee and my shares.
The example I'll use here is 3/20/20, $1,200 strike pays $1,600. Would it really be so bad if I sold 100 shares at $1,200 a month from now knowing what I do today.

Well that's the dilemma, isn't it.

I will be very honest though and say that just after market open today I did sell 5x 28/2 (2/28 ) covered calls and pocketed $1500. IMO, needs a white-swan for those to exercise (although a debt upgrade could be one such), but even then it's a tall order and the stock would likely retract and I'd re-buy.

It's a risk, but after some weeks of thinking about it, I thought "why not" - I will look to do this every other week, with the exception of earnings where I intend to be fully in shares. I will use the proceeds to purchase more stock.