Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UCF3]

My observation: During the trade scare late 2018, SP 500 dropped over 20% in about 3 months. I dont generally time the market but since this is so fresh and comparable, does anyone think we'll see a drop of the same magnitude?

If TSLA doesn’t hit the delivery projections for Q1 we could easily approach $599

This new article with a source claims new battery will have some supercapitor component:

New Tesla battery a combination of dry cell and supercapacitor | The Driven

Waiting for @KarenRei to roast it...

Is the Driven a reputable source?

 

[ggr]

Mod: Listen up. For realz. There is a coronavirus thread. We have said multiple times to take the coronavirus postings there. It's funny, it takes the same time to read N postings in two threads as it does to read the same postings in a single thread, and it is easier to keep track of them there. If you care so much about the market-moving aspects of coronavirus, you should welcome a separate thread for them, rather than having to sort them out from the "I just bought another share at $777.88". Mods are getting very tired of policing this stuff, only to get flack from the audience. Pretty soon you'll be back to no moderation, and believe me, it is NOT better that way. --ggr

 

[MC3OZ]

Is the Driven a reputable source?

Driven mostly reprints stuff from other sources, being across the low level technical detail is not their strong point...

This particular article is likely to be proven more wrong than right...

 

[StealthP3D]

The quality of reporting is on a steep decline at Car and Driver. Don't they check their facts before publishing the story?

Tesla CEO Elon Musk famously tossed metal balls at the Cybertruck at its unveiling, causing similar-looking window damage, but this was clearly the work of a vandal.

What kind of Car and Driver contributing editor is not be able to tell the difference between Elon Musk and Franz von Holzhausen? And what kind of copy editor wouldn't catch it?

Tesla Sentry Mode Records Vandal Smashing Model 3's Window

 

[StealthP3D]

And why Roadrunner?

Probably because no matter how hard Wily Coyote tries to catch Roadrunner and eat her for dinner, she is undeterred and just keeps zooming ahead.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Mod: Listen up. For realz. There is a coronavirus thread. We have said multiple times to take the coronavirus postings there. It's funny, it takes the same time to read N postings in two threads as it does to read the same postings in a single thread, and it is easier to keep track of them there. If you care so much about the market-moving aspects of coronavirus, you should welcome a separate thread for them, rather than having to sort them out from the "I just bought another share at $777.88". Mods are getting very tired of policing this stuff, only to get flack from the audience. Pretty soon you'll be back to no moderation, and believe me, it is NOT better that way. --ggr

Why don't you just have people start threads on individual distinct topics and then post in those threads?

 

[Dwdnjck]

lol, SW style! *meep* *meep*.

EDIT:

The comparisons are too juicy:

• The top-of-the-line Ford F-150 Raptor pickup has a "Coyote V8" engine
• Roadrunners are native to the desert SW of the USA
• Texas is already home to the SpaceX Raptor rocket engine test site (MacGregor)
• The Roadrunner always beats the Coyote (see the WB documentaries for proof)
  • Ford Raptor: $70K
  • Tesla Cybertruck: $70K
  • Performance? 2x
  • Cost/Mile? 1/2
• Ford is 'F'd.

Cheers!

Also, Raptors are rationed th dealers, meaning they are likely money losers for Ford.

 

[Eugene Ash]

My observation: During the trade scare late 2018, SP 500 dropped over 20% in about 3 months. I dont generally time the market but since this is so fresh and comparable, does anyone think we'll see a drop of the same magnitude? The general feeling is people are more unease this time than they were in 2018 but I could be wrong

Before Dec 2018 i was getting really paranoid, so i enjoyed the correction. At the end of it went back in. So timing worked out for me that time. Corrections are normal, and we were overdue for one. So now 401k to the max, as this unfolding. I also anticipate the election jitters (anyone remembers a 7% drop last time?). Even if we go into a recession, TSLA is still going to be fine, as it caters to mid-higher segment, and has no real competition. They will keep eating bigger share of the shrinking pie of legacy OEMs. Hodl your chairs of stonks!

 

[Singer3000]

Are we expecting Model Y to still have a lead acid battery? Or is this more tied to the Plaid project? Or will we instead have to wait the Cybertruck, which seems like the first truly ground up project since Model 3?

I don't remember much being said in this context with respect to Battery and PowerTrain Day. Would be great if the lead batteries can go. Most lead smelting and refining plants are not pretty places I can tell you.

 

[Dwdnjck]

I just had my 12 volt battery replaced in my S. It was not lead acid, it was a deep cycle lithium ion.

 

[glhs272]

I just had my 12 volt battery replaced in my S. It was not lead acid, it was a deep cycle lithium ion.

By Tesla?

 

[lascavarian]

I just had my 12 volt battery replaced in my S. It was not lead acid, it was a deep cycle lithium ion.

What kind of charge was involved for that?

 

[JRP3]

I just had my 12 volt battery replaced in my S. It was not lead acid, it was a deep cycle lithium ion.

Are you sure?

 

[jhm]

or the market is a ZERO sum game.

Actually an efficient market is positive sum game for longs and negative sum game for shorts. Shorting is essentially a bet that the market is not efficiently pricing a security, whereas a long investment still has positive reward expectations even if it is efficiently priced.

But the main point I was trying to make is that it is all to easy to make projections about there being some market manipulator out there that is determined to foil your plans. Why do we do that? Does it actually help us to make better trades or investments to imagine some personal nemesis working against us?

 

[StealthP3D]

I just had my 12 volt battery replaced in my S. It was not lead acid, it was a deep cycle lithium ion.

Unfortunately, we don't know what Model year Model S you have, whether the battery being replaced was OEM or had been replaced previously, whether Tesla did the current replacement or an independent shop, whether the replaced battery was lithium-ion or the new battery (or both).

In short, we don't know anything other than you had a Model S 12 volt battery replaced.

Did you know the car originally came with an AGM (Absorbed Glass Mat) lead-acid battery?

 

[StealthP3D]

What kind of charge was involved for that?

He already said, 12 volts!

/s

 

[dhrivnak]

Did it, by any chance, occur to you that Tesla must hire the people before they can train installation crews and ramp production?

Or they can work with installers so other can install their products

 

[Navin]

Tesla battery power plant approved in Moss Landing

boom!!!

 

[printf42]

Was thinking about that idea of Tesla selling skate boards to OEMs, which would be brought up from time to time.

Here is why I think it would not happen.

Remember Elon said Tesla is very open for other car company to use Supercharger Network, as long as they don’t have outlandish engineering requests.
What he didn’t say, is he probably received such requirements before, and they were steps backwards instead of forward. Tesla don’t have time for those BS, that’s the reason there is no other cars on Supercharger so far.

If Tesla ever try to supply skate board, same would happen:

OEM: Your motor controller should work with our instruments cluster.
Tesla: R U still in last century? Here is our 15 inch and MCU, use it.

OEM: How about the MobileEye suit we got from our high-profile partnership?
Tesla: U kidding? The MCU have FSD chips already.

OEM: At least you need to support our smart headlights and 24-way seats from our trusted suppliers.
Tesla: What? They have their own computers? What’s this weird protocol they talk? Could you just use ours?

OEM: How about the door locks and wipers?
Tesla: ...

The OEM would probably end up only providing the body-in-white, and they would cut every corner to make them as cheaply as possible, while it barely gets a 5 star rating.

So, if Tesla ever have the extra cell capacity, they would be better off build more factories to make more cars themselves.

 

[Fobble]

Tesla battery power plant approved in Moss Landing

boom!!!

When will the project start? Will Tesla has enough cells to build commercial energy storage this capacity? I thought they don't even have enough capacity for cars and semis for the foreseeable future.