Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drax7]

GM is a marketing company at best, selling cars at a loss,
To make money on spare parts.

No first class engineer would risk their career working there.

 

[Lycanthrope]

All you need to know is summarised here on Sneaky Alf and Adam Jonah:

Not to mention, failure, failure, failure, but now they'll come good!!!

 

[StealthP3D]

Do they actually believe this themselves? Or is this all a show to prepare for Bailout 2.0?

Bingo! We have a winner! All GM needs to do is look like they are trying to go EV. Nevermind that they don't have the money to do it.

Tesla went through ten years of losses while the peanut gallery threw shells at them and laughed because they were spending billions of other peoples money. Well, guess what, GM will need to borrow every penny they have announced. Now multiply that amount by 3 to get a more realistic estimate. They don't (and won't) have it without borrowing hugely. They do not have the lean efficiency of Tesla so this is (unfortunately) a non-starter without a government bailout.

Fool me once, shame on you. Try to fool me twice and you can take a hike!

 

[jerryfan2000]

GM is really good at running show business.

 

[jerry33]

I do not see such issue on my end. I am using PC, not mobile. I have 5 accounts with TD, all linked together, and switched back and forth without being asked for password every time.

I'm not using a mobile either. I can switch to look from the account I have them linked to, but all but the account I logged into are read only. I even called and asked, and was told that's just how it works.

 

[Lycanthrope]

The way I see it, the Taycan is, what, ~480 Wh/mi? And this would be 500 Wh/mi for the hummer. That's not too shabby for an unaerodynamic vehicle with a body designed for an ICE and is made to support a battery that is 18" thick (forgot where I saw that so no citation).* So, while not impressive, it also looks about right for something GM would (eventually) make.

Also, while they are planning on eventually bringing the cell cost to <$100/kWh I haven't seen any mention of the density. That's going to be one heckuva heavy battery pack which isn't going to help cargo capacity. {ed: assuming they match where Tesla used to be for packs[1] that would be ~2150 pounds just for the battery. Ouch!}

* I'm still trying to wrap my head around that one. Will it have no ground clearance or will you need a ladder to get into it?

1) Tesla Model 3 Battery Cell Has World's Highest Energy Density

Yeah, but what they didn't reveal is that they took inspiration from Cybertruck and GM's new design philosophy is that the whole car is in fact the battery! So no battery pack, but battery chassis, battery shell, battery suspension - simples!

Edit: Burpin' Cat Mode though, come on, that's a game-changer!!!

Edit 2: Yes, I have been drinking Duvel!

 

[Buckminster]

Quick, order now and you will be ready for a 30+ page TMC sesh on battery day:
A really lazy boy! Ultimate gaming bed comes with energy wagon for snacks and desk for video screens | Daily Mail Online

 

[LJS22]

All you need to know is summarised here on Sneaky Alf and Adam Jonah:

View attachment 517969

Not to mention, failure, failure, failure, but now they'll come good!!!

View attachment 517977

Lol Normally I’d consider an analyst opinion but Adam Jonas gets to ask Elon Musk a question every quarter and botches it every time with the dumbest question. It is for this reason I consider him the most uninformed worst analyst of all time

truly unbelievable that we aren’t up big today. Lots of manipulators keeping us down.

 

[jhm]

GM is dead. They made 6.5 billion in profit last year. They will need to spend every penny of profit for the next several years to turn these plans into reality. ALl the while cannibalizing their own ICE sales and leaving billions in stranded ICE assets. I can't see a path for them to survive. (bailout maybe?)

GM = Government Money

The tail risk for Tesla is that the government could force Tesla to acquire GM.

 

[Lycanthrope]

GM is really good at running slow business.

FTFY

 

[humbaba]

GM = Government Money

The tail risk for Tesla is that the government could force Tesla to acquire GM.

Is that really a possibility? I can see the government donating taxpayer money to the corporate bailout, but forcing one company to buy another?

 

[StealthP3D]

Margin calls and their enforcement may have become a factor today, especially for TSLA. Compounding that, the all-day outage at Robinhood on Monday, with another Tuesday morning, may be causing many of its frustrated clients to liquidate and close their accounts. A large number of its clients are millennials, a group that tends to favor investment in TSLA. Those leaving Robinhood will need a little time to reinvest at other brokerages.

With regard to Robinhood clients moving their accounts to other brokerages, how many TSLA shares do you think you're talking about here? Is it even significant?

Anytime I've changed brokerages, I've transferred the shares (and whatever cash balance I had), not sold them and transferred the cash. The last time was around 25 years ago - I've been pretty happy with Schwab since then.

 

[jerryfan2000]

they are building EV with powerpoint. I can build an even nicer one with Page in my Mac.

 

[JRD1]

I'm not using a mobile either. I can switch to look from the account I have them linked to, but all but the account I logged into are read only. I even called and asked, and was told that's just how it works.

I also have multiple linked accounts and can switch between them and trade without re-logging in. They are not read-only. Maybe they have set the access differently on the linked accounts for you?

Its definitely possible to log in once and trade multiple accounts. I've done it multiple times in the last few weeks on both mobile and web.

 

[Lycanthrope]

Go on, finish green, just to piss off that idiot Jonas...

 

[jhm]

I like your overall analysis but I think you are making a mistake to assume TSLA needs to stay in any "range" for 6 months. The 4-5 years between $200-$400 was a trading range that stuck around because TSLA had no profits and revenues were relatively small. We are in a new era of TSLA where we can watch incremental improvements of gross margins, revenues, etc. There is big growth ahead and the market will struggle to value it.

As long as the overall market doesn't turn into a bear market, I think we will continue to see price appreciation through 2020. And I'm not talking about a low volatility, smooth walk up to your high-end price target of $1070. A stock like this will likely over-shoot that and come back down for a spell until there are enough new catalysts to propel it higher. Instead of a trading range, I expect to see big zigs (mostly progressively higher) followed by big zags down (also mostly progressively higher). This will probably not form a horizontal channel or trading range like we saw in the previous several years. And it won't be even or smooth or easy to trade as in past years.

In my mind, six months in this range is pretty short. C.f., 2 to 3 years in the last two cycles.

Whether trading range is the best term to describe my expectations, let me put it this way: I think it will be another 6 months before we two days close above $970. This leaves Sept-Dec for prices to rise above $1000 if indeed they are to rise by end of year.

I'd also point out that this is an election year. So the whole market could be inhibited until the US elects the next president.

 

[Open Interest]

GM is dead. They made 6.5 billion in profit last year. They will need to spend every penny of profit for the next several years to turn these plans into reality. ALl the while cannibalizing their own ICE sales and leaving billions in stranded ICE assets. I can't see a path for them to survive. (bailout maybe?)

I guess they’re going to go look for battery companies to buy, or seek to enter strategic partnerships with other manufacturers who have promising technologies?? Oh wait.....

 

[LJS22]

Go on, finish green, just to piss off that idiot Jonas...

Took them all day! It should have been a +20 day.

 

[Curt Renz]

Go on, finish green, just to piss off that idiot Jonas...

 

[Bunky]

I’m baffled by the OEM’s choice to build electric versions of their brands that are most synonymous with gas guzzling. Fans of Mustang, Cadillac and Hummer are surely least likely to care about EV’s and their benefits. I can’t imagine anyone thinking I’d love to get a Hummer if only they made an electric version. I’d put the addressable market at around 14 people, only those with the most severe of cognitive dissonance.

Trying to figure out if it’s a margin thing (these are higher margin/less likely to have to sell at a loss) or just a massive stupidity thing.